FREE DAILY POST: 26/01/17 (complete)

Summary

There is some rambling, Chelt Ante Post pointers post, Tips in the 3pm Gowran, micro systems/angles, Gowran stats, and a 14/1 shot of interest to my eyes, right at the end..

 

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Some sad news to report, and I am sincere here.. following further discussions over email our friend Jim has been removed from my email list at his request and has informed me he will no longer be reading the blog. While I did indicate that would be best for us all, given the exchanges we had,everyone is always welcome if they can accept the way things are from here on in. (ie, do not expect a free post every single day)  He wished us well in our future endeavours. I don’t anticipate we will ever hear from him again. Albeit you never know, he may not be able to stay away 🙂

While the phrase ‘good riddance’ may spring to mind it isn’t my overriding emotion. I find it disappointing that having been reading regularly for over two years I could not convince him that a) what in effect was a £10 donation during Cheltenham week was a fair deal or not too much to ask or  b) that not reading during that one week of no free access should be an acceptable way forward, if you did not wish to pay, given the amount of free content available during the rest of the year.  It is true, you cannot please all the people all the time. We fundamentally disagreed on a point of principle and it is apparent that we have a very different view on life I think.

Anyway, that sorry episode is now behind us. (and please, no comments on that episode, we should move on now)

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I am now free to focus on tipping donkeys. Butlergrove King will hack up one day although I may be a crumpled body at the bottom of a cliff when that day does arrive. Truly awful.

With that in mind…

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CHELTENHAM: ANTE POST BETS

As requested by some of you I have created a post whereby you can all discuss your Ante Post facies for the Festival. There are a few interesting comments already.

You can chip in with your thoughts HERE>>> (that post will live in the Free Reports&Systems tab, for ease of reference)

 

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What a rubbish day…

I mean, you don’t really want to hear about it but me going out for my friends Bday last night has turned into an expensive experience… so, not only did I tip a donkey in Butlergrove King, watching tips run like that is always disheartening (‘Josh, you should be used to that by now’, yes yes) but this morning I woke up and had a look at my TTP Members stats selections.

You see, they have a habit of finding big priced winners. Last night Major Ridge was 33s in places and 25s generally. I was out. I had no idea. Recent advice has been to back all horses on the stats 20/1 or bigger- there have been over 10 of those this season now. Gulp. When I got around this morning he was 10s generally, and I had no idea he had been so big for a long period, the evening before. I had a brief look and thought 10s wasn’t overly generous given his 0/13 career stats. He was a ‘non ratings pointer’ horse. But he was lightly raced I suppose, 3rd run of the season, trainer in a bit better form. He had been held up before, but this time they made all. Clever. He hacked up. Not carrying a penny.

It seems  a few members had a nibble at big prices which makes up for me missing him, a little bit! Always annoying. (oh, and i failed to back another 25/1 winner from the stats on Saturday. One day I will master my own sodding Members Posts 🙂 )

We move on… (that has happened before, and will happen again!)

 

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TIPS

3.00 Gowran 

JETSTREAM JACK -1 point win 10/1 (general) UP/Fell late

MONTYS MEADOW – 1 point win 10/1 (geenral) UP

Well, that didn’t go as well as Sunday’s unofficial advice. Not sure of the winner was ever headed. Got a run for my money to a point, both looking like being threatening before fading tamely. Bonny Kate ran well for the shortlist, that was about it. 

 

Well I decided to get off the fence, remove the splinters, and tip in this race. Being out of form or at times lacking in confidence isn’t really a sound approach especially when I have faith in the stats/trends/winning profile approach below. It is clear that I should probably play in Ireland more often as some of their races appear to have strong pointers, such as Sunday. You can all keep me on my Irish toes and let me know a few days before, if there are any big handicaps I should be looking at!

The below approach is the one I attacked Cheltenham with last year. Following that Festival I said to myself if Gordon Elliot (Diamond King 10/1) or Davvy Russell (Mall Dini 25/1>14/1) are ever associated with a ‘winning profile’ shortlist horse again at the Festival, I will just back them. Those two winners would have made for quite the week and they were both in shortlists of 4/5 from memory.

So, we have Jetstream Jack. It is quite straightforward. He ticks the main stats that stood out to me, is trained by Elliot, ridden by Russel, he is a bet. Clearly it isn’t the Festival, but it is a ‘target handicap’. Thankfully he happens to be a double figure price also! He is unexposed over fences, has some decent form to his name and you have to assume in these big races, from this yard, that it has probably been the target. He was held up the last day and never really put into it. We shall see. I had to go with him really, given my mental scares.

Montys Meadow… Well the only negative for this one is the jockey I think, I would have liked a bigger name- they may well have wanted Russel on, so again that may be a tick for Jetstream above. But, the horse has a perfect profile really, no chinks against any of the main stats that I can see. When he completes he is very consistent and is totally unexposed at the trip. He has raced prominently in the past and the pace maps suggest you want to be up there around this track. Likewise Jetstream can be handy, if desired. The trainer has won this race before also, which caught the eye. So, again, at a double figure price, why not have a go!

At least you know the method to my madness, and you can jump aboard or not. No Butlergrove pin jobs here!

Of the rest..

Well Bonnie Kate is a clanger- will I throw some change at her just in case. Hmmm. The run at Navan LTO is a slight neg, as is having won over 3m4f or further. She stays very well, but there is a possibility something has more toe near the end. There is also a possibility she makes all. Meade seems to be going through a resurgence which is nice to see. So, maybe I should ignore his 0/8,0p in this race, given his awful stats for Sunday’s race that he put to bed. He may be one to watch at the Festival. He trained Very Wood I think, and that has fond memories. A suspect he has a few lined up for there.

There isn’t much I can say to put you off her albeit I think the two selections have a bit more of the ‘could be anything’ quality about them.

Wounded Warrior would be heartbreak at 28s, on the shortlist. I am used to that feeling sadly. Fox has never ridden for Meade from what I can see and I would have thought one of his more regular pilots would have been on. The horse is also in poor form and hasn’t shown enough for me in two runs this season. I know the last race was the Lexus, but even so, that was a laboured effort. They put first time CP on him LTO, I assume for a reason. They didn’t work. They are retained today. He does have some smart novice form. I wonder if he has some sight on Cheltenham, and it would be nice if he dropped a few pounds (3rd in the RSA in 2015) I hope he doesn’t win today. Maybe I should just ignore recent form and go with him at that price, this race does throw up biggies. But I have left him. Gulp.

Rogue Trader..well I don’t want to take a single figure price in a race like this really. He has a chance.  A couple of negs, inc joint bottom weight. And he is usually held up out the back, which isn’t idea around here. If you like the price though, not much I can say to deter you. We shall see if any of the reserves get in. Mullins fav, currently a reserve, falls down on a few of the stats and in any case at that price is worth taking on.

I think that will be all. I have not gone through every runner in detail. In part that is the point of such an approach as this. In ‘target races’, second guessing recent form or the plan of connections, can be a bit fruitless. This approach has worked enough times for me to stick with it over time.

Good luck with whatever you fancy.

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The ‘winning profile‘ below for the big races leaves…

Wounded Warrior – UP

Jetstream Jack – hasn’t run at track,slight neg – Fell (when struggling)

Montys Meadow – trainer has won race before – UP

Bonny Kate – ran Navan LTO a slight neg – 3rd

Rogue Trader – no run at track a slight neg, also joint bottom weight, a neg- PU

..Plus two reserves..

Sambremont – no run at track.

Texas Jack –

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

2.00 War – Incentivise (x2 angles) PU (he is fine thankfully,went amiss)

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.00 War – Incentivise (#9) (12/1<) PU

 

Handicap Chase/Hurdle Portfolio- Live Test

2.35 War – Moidore- UP

 

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Bonus…

Thyestes Handicap Chase

Winning Profile…?

• Ran Class 1 LTO (running same class, up1 or up2 from last run, so raced G1,2,3 LTO) 
• Ran within the last 60 days
• 1-5 runs this season
• 1-10 handicap runs
• 1-3 chase wins 
• 0-2 handicap wins
• Ran over fences LTO (chase, not hurdle) 

 

 

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Thyestes Handicap Chase

10 years : 10/176, 40 places horses

Note:

18/20 ran 16-60 days ago

• 1-15 Days: 1/50,7p
• 61+ : 0/22,1p
• One winner down as having ‘no run’, prob first UK/Irish run.

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

• Not much but of note 5/10 failed to complete LTO (PU,BD,Fell)

Days Since Run

• 10/10 ran 16-60 days ago

Horse Weight

• 6/10 carried 10-7 or less before claims
• 3/16,6p carried 11-6 +.
• 10-8-11-5 : 1/67, 15 places

Season Runs

• 10/10 had 1-5 runs this season
  • 6+ : 0/21,4p

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

• Had won over 3m4f+ : 0/26, 6p

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

• Clear Top or Second : 3/19,7p…+17 SP
• Clear/Joint Bottom: 0/14,2p

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

• 10/10 had 1-10 handicap runs
• 11+ : 0/54, 8p

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

• 0 handicap chase runs: 0/12,2p

H- Run (track))

• 9/10 had run at track before
  • Had not: 1/59, 13p

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

• 7+ : 0/17,2p

H-Win (NH Race Type).

• 10/10 had 1-3 chase wins
  • 0/20,4p had 4+
  • 0: 0/7,2p

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

• 10/10 had 0-2 handicap wins
  • 3+ : 0/31, 5 p

H-Win (Hcap NH)

• 3+ : 0/17,3p

Miscellaneous 2

Class Move

• 10/10 running at same class or moving up 1 or 2 only (so G1,G2,G3 LTO?…)
• (I need to get my head around what these means for Irish Class)
• Up 3+ : 0/72, 12 places

Distance Move

• 7/10 : up 0.5f,Same,down 1, 1.5f since last run

H-Places (NH Race type)

• 9/10 had 2-5 places in chases (inc wins)
  • 1: 0/8,2p
  • 6+ : 1/60 , 9p

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

• 10/10 ran over fences LTO
  • Hurdle: 0/39, 6 p

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

• 10/10 ran in Class 1 LTO
  • C2 or lower: 0/66, 12 p

(LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

• Non Major: 0/66,12p
• Listed: 0/6,0p

(LR) Track

• Leopardstown: 5/70,20p
• 1 each: Thurles/Chepstow/Limerick/Aintree/Newbury
• Fairy: 0/15, 1p
• Navan: 0/15, 3p
• Cork: 0/,8p
• Punch: 0/22,5p

Trainers (of interest)

• W Mullins: 4/30, 10p
• O’Leary: 2/3,2p
• 1 win: Burke/Mangan/Gilligan/Hughes
• Meade: 0/8,0p (albeit he was 0/33,0p in hurdle he won on Sunday!)
• Elliot: 0/9,3p

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Finally.. OF INTEREST…

1.20 Gowran – Tidy Zig – UP 14s generally… caught the eye when flicking through the cards using Geegeez Instant expert tab. He has no track experience but ticks all the other boxes of ground, class, trip when many others in here do not, on evidence to date. He is also 5lb below his last winning mark , before you take off the jockeys 7lb. Yes he is 12 but he is lightly raced and had 16 months of before this season. His last run was decent enough and suggested he may be ready to win again in the near future. IF he were to return to some of his hurdles form back end 2013, early 2014, he could maybe win this quite well. Anyway, with 4 places, I have had a small EW nibble to find out. Far from confident but you never know!

Well, he was last all the way round, never really going- his best form is in soft/heavy,well, on what he has done in his career. I am not sure if there is any soft in that ground or not but if that race is anything to go by it is a bit suicidal holding one up, as the front 3rd don’t look like coming back to you, unless you have a load of class/loads in hand.  He was last all the way round really, no run for my muggy £5 EW. Moving on. There is probably a reason I don’t venture over the water that often. 

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That is all for today…