FREE DAILY POST: 25/01/17 (complete+Tip)

To be free or not to be free, that is the question… TIP…

Well, that was fun! 🙂

IMPORTANT!!!

To Be Free, Or Not To Be Free, That Is The Question…

Let me try my best to add some clarification to all things ‘the blog’ (clarity is a quality some would argue I lack at times, self deprecation certainly isn’t). The following is non negotiable. You like it, or take your eyes somewhere else 🙂 No need for any comments on this one…

 

  1. I reserve the right to put any aspect of this blog behind a paywall. You should NOT expect a Free Daily Post EVERYDAY. While that has been the case for over 2 years, and in general will remain so, there may be times when there is no free daily post. That should be clear.
  2.  There WILL ALWAYS be free content on this blog, and plenty of it, whether that is in regular general posts, or within the ‘Free Reports & Systems’ tab. Free content is the heart and soul of this blog and that will never disappear. 
  3. Most of what is in the current free daily posts will never be put behind a permanent paywall, never to be accessed for free again. In that I include all ‘non test’ sections of the micro angles/systems. This includes profitable angles such as Harry Fry Mares/G McPherson/George Chasers/V Williams November/Monthly trainer angles/Sat TJC Combos and any others I have missed off. 
  4. At some point in the future I reserve the right to move any ‘Live Test’ micro system/angle into the Members Club. If the trainer/jockey combos do well during 2017, I may well do that for 2018. But they are live tests for a reason. They may fly,they may sink. Getting the balance right between paid and free is always a challenge but I will try and be clearer from now on. And as always I try and be fair and open.  
  5. I have no plans to charge for TIPs and never have, not behind a permanent paywall. Part of their allure is the write ups and the engagement, and  also reading what Nick likes so that I can ditch my original bets and go with his! 🙂 And if we are being honest I wouldn’t pay for my tips on evidence to date- not consistent enough. (Nick Hardman, Nicky Doyle, and Chris at Geegeez are better Tipsters than me,on evidence to date. And there are many other good’uns out there I am sure)
  6. What may be introduced in the future? Well, there will be the Festival week, where there will be no free content. Because I have never done such a thing before, and because it may all turn out to be awful, that will be through ClickBank so that you can get a full refund, no questions asked. A ‘Day Pass’ function exists on this blog that I have never used as yet, whereby I can block off any post I wish, just for members or those who pay for 24 hour access to members content, for £3.  I have considered a ‘Racing To Profit Supporters Club‘, £3-5 per month, whereby I block off 3-5 daily posts per month, mainly at Weekends, more so as a thank you to such supporters/existing members, rather than a money making exercise 🙂 + some added extras available to current members, the odd report etc. Believe it or not I have no intention to bleed you dry and think the content I do charge for is rather reasonably priced, some would say too cheap. But, that is an idea. It may be introduced one day. Certainly not this Jumps season, and I doubt this Flat season, but possibly from next jumps season, October time. 
  7. The day you see any adverts on here from Bookmakers will be the day I have failed at the business side of things. Bookie adverts make me uncomfortable, mainly because the standard model of commission is for me to make X % amount on any losses you make over the lifetime of that account I believe. Now, there are other models, such as a flat fee for sign ups etc. But the first model raises all sorts of integrity questions that I just don’t think I would ever shake off. And a part of the blog would die if they were ever introduced. If I were a cash chaser,simply after your money, this blog would have been plastered with such adverts long ago. (you may be sensing the one particular sentence in one particular comment that really irked me) 
  8. Finally, this blog will always be a mixed model where everyone should feel welcome, whether you donate, join the members club, or just enjoy the free content without ever throwing any money my way. There is no issue there or expectation on my part. Some people can’t afford to for example, or are ideologically opposed. But all readers should accept from now on that on some days, occasionally, there may be no free content relating to that day’s racing. Those days will be rare. In the short term that is Cheltenham Festival week. In the longer term it may be 3-5 days per month. ‘may’ being the important word. That is just an idea at this stage. (the donate button is in the top right hand corner, if you ever felt obliged 🙂 ) 

 

Believe it or not my sole purpose is to provide you all with something of interest that makes this game enjoyable, and over time, with any luck, profitable. It is about creating a space, a community, whereby we can all get along and try and profit. And have some fun along the way.  As one of you said in a members post – being a racing nut can be a lonely place at times. We are a rare breed. And there is something enjoyable about our little set up here, being able to share in each others success, and sometimes failure.  Without the engagement my days would be rather dull and I enjoy that bit the most. I think we have something rather good here, but I am biased.

That is what drives me, to provide you all with something of use, free or paid.  NOT to make as much money as I can. Yes this is a business, and yes without the income side the free content would be much diminished, but there is only a business if I get that first bit right – the content, the feel, the community. If I do, the latter bit should take care if itself, if I do my job properly. My main fear is letting you down. I don’t take any reader for granted, any subscription paid or donation made. And never will.

I hope that is clear. It probably isn’t.  But, that is that. The End.  Moving on…

***

NEW POST! I have had a top level look at some jockeys and trainers it may be worth following in Hunter Chases.

You can read that HERE>>>

 

**

 

TIPS

2.15 Ludlow-

BUTLERGROVE KING – 1 point win – 8/1 (SJ/32 Red) 15/2 (Bet365/SkybB/Betway) 7/1 (general) PU 7/1>7/2

hmm. Gamble gone astray. He was never really going, held up again. Carnage there in that race with 3 horses travelling well taken out by one of them who fell. Well done Nick, again.  Think it best I give up on Butlergrove King. He will win one day, but looks like he may have issues. Maybe something went wrong again. His best runs have come from on the pace and I cannot work out those tactics. The most solid horse in the race, in conditions, won. No shock there albeit I have no idea how that race may have panned out but for the trouble. But none of that takes away from how poor Butlergrove was. Someone clearly expected better maybe. 

 

I have had my eye on this one since tipping him during my long summer of discontent last year, at Worcester. Something went amiss that day and he was given some time out/fixed, before his run at Chepstow- which was very much a case of ‘this is what a race course looks like ride’ never sighted, potted around the back. I have just watched his last race again that has pushed me over the line into having another go on him here. I thought he might run ok the last day but I knew early he wouldn’t be running a race as he was held up. When he runs well he either leads, tries to lead, or runs up with the pace. So, I will know early on if I am to get a run for my money. But, that run was ok. He travelled well turning for home and was given a very friendly ride by Dunne, not really picking the stick up or looking that vigorous to my eye. I think he could have got closer maybe. In the end he just let him coast home but that move from the last in the back straight, through the home turn, showed something. And of course his handicap mark is dropping.

He is a course winner over 24f and was pulling away that day. Some of those seconds last year were in ok races and that Fontwell run produced plenty of winners. This race looks very winnable and there really is no excuse. He should be going close here. On his 3rd run back after his break they come back to Ludlow with him and hopefully that does the trick. I am happy to have one more go in a moderate race, but this may well be the last chance. He should be going close here, on his best chase form. And, compared to a few in here, is lightly enough raced for his age, over fences at least.

PACE…well he does like to get on with it when he is here to run well. Winged Crusader can but given they step back up in trip, in faster ground, will hopefully settle for a tracking 2nd/3rd. Sunny Legend can be up there but he isn’t getting any younger either. Dunne could get the lead here I suspect, if he wants, and he may not see another rival. Or he can track them. I don’t think he has to lead, but he should be up there.

Of the rest..well it is a moderate race. Ultimatum Du Roy has been consistent and there may be excuses for that PU the last day. I expect Butlergrove to overturn that Wincanton run where he wasn’t given a forceful ride and UDR only plugged on there. But, he likes it here and should run his race. I can see some appeal albeit the selection has more potential I feel, to suddenly show himself to be well handicapped.

I can’t have the top two in the market. Venetia’s horse is short given the stamina unknown. He may relish it, but 7/2 isn’t a price I want to take to find out really, combined with the fact that he was very poor the last day. Winged Crusader is 0/9,0p OR 111+ which is enough to be put me off at those odds. Twirling Magnet isn’t getting any younger and is too inconsistent for me, I don’t know what we will get. Has an inexperienced jockey on also. Conditions are ok although a stamina question also. Sunny Legend is 12 now and I am happy to leave the old boy. He has been running ok but I can’t tempt myself. He also has a stamina niggle,albeit on this ground will probably be ok.

The Leech horse is probably the other interesting one at a price in the sense he is unexposed and has run ok in some chases, although they have generally been poor contests. He didn’t show much LTO, is a hold up horse, can make errors and the trainer is 0/14,1p here with handicap chasers. Any money should probably be noted and I suppose a big run wouldn’t be a shock, although it is hard to know just how good he is, that chase form being in novice handicaps.

The other two need to show a bit more for me.

So, hopefully this is the day Butlergrove makes all and hacks up- if Dunne is aggressive on the front end early, I will know he is here to run a good race. If he is held up, maybe not so much!

**

 

**

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Tom George Chasers 

3.25 Lud – Big Windmill- UR (on the flat)

 

Trainer/Jockey Combos – Live Test

2.15 Lud – Butlergrove King (16/1<) UP 7/1>7/2

 

Handicap Chase/Hurdle Portfolio- Live Test

2.15 Lud – Azert De coeur- BD

 

Other

Jan Trainers

2.05 Ling – Tell A Story (x2 angles) UP

1.25 Lud CATT- Cracking Find WON 4/1>9/4

3.25 Lud- Nefyn Bay 2nd 6/1

 

***

That will be all for today.

Good luck with any bets

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

48 Responses

  1. Message for TONY…
    I believe you wanted to get in touch with Darran about the Hunter Chase service… I have spoken to him and he said he emailed you back, maybe it went into junk or something… (if needs be you can send me the money, and I will send it on to him!)
    Josh

    1. Thanks Josh, it’s sorted.

      Can’t ask for a clearer explanation Credo, policy and aims in your opening epistle.
      Well written Josh.

      Cheers

      1. Good to hear Tony. ah cheers. I thought that may help, but in any case made me feel better haha. Maybe I should be better at expectations management! Always learning.

  2. Always nice to see this place buzzing even I didnt know if I was coming or going given the amount of posts today (will there me special section in the blog for Jim’s Juicy Tips going forward?).

    Three for me tomorrow. Considering we have 9 runners in the 14:15 at Ludlow it looks like a must bet race for me considering there are considerable doubts about the front two. (fav is up 13lbs effectively and has never won off a mark above 109 and to coin one of Josh’s favourite phrases isnt doing anything different so no reason he should improve at the age of 9; 2nd fav is racing off 14lbs higher than his win-5 lbs higher than his flop LTO and there is a big doubt about whether he will stay) I like the look of Ulitimatum du Roy. I am not concerned about the PU LTO given he has never been a class 3 horse and he possibly doesnt quite stay beyond 3m2f but this is much more his level. He is 4/13, 6p in class 4 handicap chases worth less than 6k and only 5lbs above his win at the track 3 starts ago (runner up has franked the form). He followed that with a solid 2nd off his current mark behind a clearly well handicapped horse who didnt disgrace himself off 10lbs higher in the Sussex National, with 6 lengths back to the 3rd who has won since. Alex Hales is in solid form with 5 of his 7 runners this year finishing in the top 3. There are doubts amongst the rest here although Twirling Magnet looks very well handicapped but is about as inconsistant as his trainer (I cant see King getting an easy lead here).

    I also want to have a small bet on Tullow Tonic in the 16:00. The bookies appear to be certain the handicapper now has her however I am not convinced. All her winning has been done right handed and its possible she didnt quite stay the 3 miles. She reverts back right handed and drops back down in trip. The form of her class 3 win reads very well with the 2nd going close in a class 2, the 3rd and 8th winning class 3/4 chases, 4th winning twice and 6th finishing 2nd twice. She is only 7lbs above that win in a lower class here and 14s looked too big in that context. I would normally advise e/w given I respect the chance of Star Rider who could be well given her flat rating however given one of the 8 runners ran today and is likely going to be a non-runner so we will be left with 7 so have gone win only.

    Moving on to Catterick I like the look of Urban Gale in the 13:55. Looks to have spot on conditions tomorrow and is now 8lbs below his last win. He was a creditable 3rd LTO with the result of field absolutely destoyed by 50+ lengths. One of the PU horses has won since. Trainer had her first winner today since August beating my NAP today (and more importantly finishing 8.5 lengths ahead of Joseph Mercer who beat the horse by 23 lengths LTO). Henry Brooke who was onboard for today’s winner gets his first ride since his 2nd on the horse 5 starts ago and is 1/4, 2p on the horse. Looks to be able to outrun his price. Given there are likely to be at least 2 NRs tomorrow that ran today and PP and Sky are offering 4 places I would back him e/w with one of them.

    1. Good luck Nick,
      Yep can see why you like UDR- he is solid enough if you ignore the PU and good reasons to do that, albeit he was never really travelling, which may have been down to the class/pace. He is probably the main danger to mine based on those two previous runs. There is just something about Butlergrove that makes me think they have been setting him up for something, and I don’t want to miss out when he bolts up! all the makings of a cliff horse for sure! We may well be fighting it out at the last. He is better than this mark I think, or has potential to be, so we shall see.

      Urban G is interesting – as an aside I have noticed more and more how agressive Henry Brooke is on a lot of horses- he won on a foster horse yesterday didn’t he? Made all, the horse having been held up plenty recently. So, he is one to watch. I suspect he will try and make all here and burn them into the ground, and at 8s, I may join you with a little EW nibble. He has such a good clock in his head, and is getting up there with Danny Cook in terms of ability from the front with chasers, Johnson the master, most of the time. That is always the best place to be,in general. He looks sure to give you a run for your money.
      And any Brooke chaser moving forward should be analysed with the prospect that he may try and make all, and if he is on a previously hold up horse who is out of form, that could be what he tries.

      Josh

      1. yep well done Nick. Strange old race but you have saved my own bank balance again there! 🙂 Awful from Butlergrove who was very well punted into Fav. Not sure if he has issues or what. Annoyed they didn’t try and race more prominent but there we go.

        1. Thanks guys. Haven’t seen the race will always take the luck given no doubt it will swing the other way soon.

          Hope you dont mind me posting a few thoughts on Butlergrove Josh since like you I am trying to get my head around what they’ve been doing. I personally would back him again but wait until Burchell is in better form, between March and October (where all his winning and place form), ideally with Mitchell on board (on a separate note why hasn’t he been riding) and ideally when returning within 15 days. Maybe they’re aiming him for a spring/summer campaign and a (insert any random headgear etc) will suddenly spark him into life. The other thought is his last win was effectively off 102 given the jockey claim so he just may not be as well handicapped as he appears to be.

          1. Your thoughts always welcome Nick! Especially constructive criticism of my 3m+ chase picks, i enjoy those the most! Firstly do watch that race again- it is pretty much as lucky as you can get, although a long way from home and the front two may have been that way anyway.

            Yep good points on BK. I won’t blame the mark, and he was backed for whatever reason. Agree about the trainer- I should have left him, given was 12s. 10s last night, thought 8s still ok this morning- that run suggests they are still buggering about with him, although something went amiss. Maybe he does have mental issues also, yep headgear on, make all, hack up. He will win a chase in the coming months, maybe a couple in a row, and Burchell seems to do better the older the chasers get. Whether I will be on, we shall see. Think I am hanging onto the cliff edge!

            Josh

  3. I’m having a bet on Alzammaar in the 2.30 at Catterick as I follow the trainer, in this class it’s an ew bet to nothing unfortunately I didn’t tick ew so hope it goes in at long odds.

    1. She was a great jockey, gave some nice paydays, and looks all set to be a long term successful trainer. May be the next Jenny Pitman.

      25s looks big and worth a shot. Bought for £20k from Warren Greatrex, so they obviously thought they were getting something to work with. If today isn’t the day, there will be others no doubt, you just don’t want it to run a blinder, get beat into 3rd, and ruin the prices for future.

        1. Yep thought we had it after the last. Took 65s on BF too! Great fun though! That’s what it’s all about. I love it.

    2. Oh that is unlucky, so close! clearly there to win today, just bumped into one. Nice EW return but oh so close to a biggie. Well done.

  4. Hi Josh / All

    Phew there’s nothing like a bit of controversy to have the comments flowing, but it shows that people care, They care about this blog, the content and interactions that we all have with a sport we all have a passion about and the excellent work that Josh does. Anyone with an ounce of common sense can see that Josh’s integrity is high and that’s why we are all here……Onward to tomorrow

    No joy with the 2 sire selections today and also Cold Fusion yesterday which Tony kindly alerted me off (spreadsheet adjusted) but the “Ones to Note” found a 9.0 winner to keep afloat on the day (seems that section doing much better at present) There is a further 2 sire selections tomorrow and some interesting trainer stats to merge in also……

    Main Sire Selections…..

    4.15 Newcastle – Royal Flag 4.0 best odds Hills/Betway/Bet365

    New Approach, 2M 1/2F, 4 runs, 2 wins, 3 places 50% win SR, 75% place SR
    This fellow was stepped up to this C & D last time out where he was held out the back and plugged on into 4th of 9. I guess connections where worried that he may not stay going up by 3 1/2F and attempted a late run but just stayed on. I would think they would be much more confident of his stamina now and be much closer to the pace and given the sire stats both here and Wolves over the distance that shouldn’t be an issue. I would be confident if he is ridden in the first 3.

    Staking £16.82 – 2% of £840.52

    5.15 Newcastle – Dusty Bin 6.0 best odds 13 different books

    Sepoy, 7F, 6 runs, 3 wins, 4 places 50.00% win SR, 66.67% place SR
    There have been 3 different winners for Sepoy’s progeny and hopefully dusty makes it 4, Already tried this C & D beaten a short head showing a definite liking for the surface and only 1lb higher today, so shouldn’t be shouting rubbish at the end of the race 🙂

    Others to note…………..

    1.05 Lingfield – Washington Blue 9.0 Betfred /Tote/Betbright/Racebets

    If we look at 1M. Class 5, handicaps at the track Clive Cox comes out ahead with 3 runs, 2 wins, 3 places. These where 3 different horses the 2 winners where 9.0 & 8.0 with the other coming 2nd at 8.0. Ran well here over 7F staying on 4th of 12 of a mark of 70 and now only 2lb higher after winning a handicap nursery over a 1M at Kempton, the step up to 1M here will suit drawn well in 1 with Adam Kirby on (never a bad thing) should go well.

    1.35 Lingfield – African Girl 101.00 5 books (betfair ex will be huge no doubt)

    Equiano 19 runs, 7 wins, 9 places 36.84% win SR, 47.37% place SR
    Well the biggee for the day no form to go on in 2 runs at Leicester & Kempton over 6F now stepped up to 7F at Lingfield where the sire has good stats has shown a bit of promise laying up close to the leaders before fading hopefully this C & D has the midas effect (like Pinwood last week here) if she stays around the 100/1 mark I would expect 300/1 + on the exchange and would split my tenner £2 win, £3 place & £4 in the 4 to be placed market.

    2.05 Lingfield – Simply Me 4.0 generally available

    Having looked at the stats there is 3 of interest in this race but the selection has it twofold with strong sire & trainer stats. New Approach 7F Lingfield……
    14 runs, 5 wins, 7 places 35.71% win SR, 50.00% place SR along with Tom Dascombe, Class 5, 7F handicaps at the track 14 runs, 5 wins, 8 places 35.71% win SR 57.14% place SR. The other 2 for reference or any f/c tricast backers Garter – Fastnet Rock, 7F, Lingfield, 9 runs, 3 wins, 4 places 33.33% win SR
    Gamrah – James Tate, Class 5, 7F handicaps, Lingfield – 6 runs, 2 wins, 3 places

    2.40 Lingfield – Shan Dun Na Ngall 3.0 best odds 5 books

    Shantou 1 run, 1 win, 1 place
    Interesting Irish recruit was originally with John Joseph Murphy and he was given a mark of 74 after 3 maiden runs and showed nothing in a further 6 runs dropping to a mark of 59 was then passed on to Gordon Elliott winning twice over hurdles in 13 runs for the trainer, He then had his 1st run for a new trainer Amy Murphy at Chelmsford on the 1/12/16 over 1M 51/2F duly winning off 48 and then followed up at Newcastle over 2M off 52 before his latest run at Wolves 1M 6F where he broke awkwardly raced wide before running on into a close 4th of 12 off 56. Off the same mark tomorrow back over 2M at a track where the sire’s progeny has won its only try at C & D and with potentially still a lot in hand of the handicapper i think 3.0 looks ok in what is a weak looking race.

    3.15 Lingfield – Allinstante 4.0 Betfair Sportsbook

    Archipenko, 1M 2F, Lingfield, 16 runs, 5 wins 6 places 31.25% win SR, 37.5%
    I followed Josh up with some stats last week on Archipenko and that his progeny are worth following over 1M 2 -1M 21/2F on all AW tracks with a profit every year. Allinstante has improved with every run which you would expect with Sir Mark and has been unfortunate the way the races have panned out the last twice still very lightly raced with only the 8 runs but already 3 wins with fields of less than 8 has this tomorrow should go well.

    3.50 Lingfield – Winning ways 8/11 Betfair sportsbook

    Yuk the real shortie of the day was hoping for around 11/8. Stats wise Jeremy Noseda in 6F class 5 maidens at the track 26 runs, 10 wins, 19 places 38.46% win SR 73.08% place SR. When teaming up with Adam Kirby at 3.5 or less 4 runs, 3 wins, 3 places. Had 2 runs for W Haggis on soft ground and now has the fast polytrack seems the money is already down..

    4.20 Lingfield – Lightsome 6.0 best odds 5 books

    A real shocker of a race and this filly was put up at Chelmsford last Thursday where she was heavily backed from 9.0 into Fav but couldn’t come from the back over 6F where the leaders dominated all evening, be interesting to see if the money comes again and they try to quickly recoup losses, couldn’t have found and easier race……..

    Thats all for this evening I do have more for Newcastle will post up at some point tomorrow, Hope you had a good evening Josh all the best

    Steve

    1. Khaleefa Bay has come out of the 135, Steve, making just seven runners. The BHA timed it going NR at 7.21 pm, Betfair withdrew it at 1924 yet every layer (except Coral to be fair) still has it priced up at 11 pm, so they can pull in the e/w support without scaring people off. It’s bleeding scandalous. I’ll see how the market looks in the morning I think. Good luck all yours. Fantastic info as ever, mate.
      Paul

      1. I noticed they pulled 2 out to make sure….. I accepted 50/1 from Betfair 1-2-3. not 100/1.
        But pulling [paying] horses out by the bookies is one of my pet hates.
        bad cess to them all. lol.

      2. Thanks Paul still managed to get on at good odds 420/1 for the win 28/1 for a place and 13.5 to finish in the 4…..Just need her to run a race now lol

        1. Oh well 4th place, Over £60.00 profit for a small play……Did you use the Betfair Exchange Tony? Massive odds were available up to 10 mins before the off?

          1. Thanks Josh its great when the stats help point the way especially with the big price ones (aka Derulo for your chase trends /stats) had to be value there on the exchange…

          2. I didn’t Steve….you know I’m technically challenged. I’ve never tried.

            Thanks though…i’ll have a blimp.

    2. Good shout Royal Flag Steve….missed that in my rush for the airport too. lol I also missed the biggie ….Major Ridge. same reason.
      Still I was on Nicks first bet, so salvaged my dosh, but not my pride lol.

      Your pulling back lad. Keep going. ha ha.

  5. had probably one of my luckiest winners yesterday with Actlikeacountess in the 4-20, anyone who saw the race will know what i mean, only had £2 on but as tesco say every little counts 🙂

    1. I will have to have a watch- I believe you make your own luck in this game! Us value seekers, long losing run sufferers, deserve a bit of luck from time to time! 🙂

  6. A trip to the twilight zone of Jonjo today:-
    125C Test Pilot, drop to 2m in an easier world?
    215L Twirling Magnet off a lower rating over a course where he had an easy win, in a hunter, staying on
    There is a third runner, Pillard, off 7 weeks.

  7. Hi Josh

    I ran a little blog a few years ago just as a bit of fun really because I loved the sport and wanted to have a small input into it. We do unfortunately have a lot of people who do not understand the discipline needed and the basic rule of most horses tipped will lose and trying to educate most people this is a thankless task.
    I have been a member since December before your free trial offer 🙁 but I like your approach and testing new methods, its fresh and fun, along with Matt Bisogno at Gee Geez offer a different approach than the tabloid and the boom boy tipsters on social media.

    1. Hi Stephen,

      Thanks for your comment. I like the term ‘fresh and fun’ !

      Yep, for those that wish to go on that journey, hopefully the likes of this blog, Matt, Ben at narrowingthefield etc there is plenty there to get stuck into. Luckily I had my bad/losing lots of money on a dodgy tipster, early on in my betting/racing journey. But it took a few years after that to ‘get it’ and there is always plenty more to learn.

      I know from comments on here in the past that the blog content + other readers comments etc have taken many on that journey and some bet/approach the game, very differently.

      It has to be fun. It is a bit pointless if it isn’t entertaining. I think having fun firstly is probably about not losing loads of money. Some may view racing as a hobby,whereby they are actually happy to lose X over the course of a year, because that is the hobby budget- like joining a gold club etc. But, when you are staring down the barrel it isn’t fun.

      Also, not being able to cheer home a horse for a long time is tough. I have gone through many a period where nothing runs any sort of race. That can be demoralising. Backing winners every now and then is important for the mind. But you have to be fixed on value,long term. Whatever interpretation of value that is. And, along with the comments on this blog, rarely does a day go by when there isn’t a winner somewhere across the content.

      Members Club…ah, you may well have missed out on the free trial offer , but the thinking there was that hopefully by the time that started any points profit won may have made up for that 🙂 The middle part of December was fairly profitable, now going through a wobble since end of fist week of Jan.

      It’s all good fun.

      Oh Social media is hilarious. It is a different world- 8% of the population on twitter say. The amount of ‘boom boys’ is hilarious. 6/4 winners left right and centre. You just have to laugh. Sadly any time spent on there makes it clear why only 3% or so win long term at betting on horses.

      Josh

  8. Morning all I’m having an all-weather bet today 6.15 – Pearl Spectre 10/1 he is far too big a price not have a bet, his last 3 runs haven’t been the best although in his last race which was a class 3 7f he was short of room and Mulrennan had to put the breaks on, he did look to be out pace that day. looking at the pace of the race and trying to get a picture in my mind of how they will run, and looking at sectional time it should suit pearl. He’s stepping back in trip today, and coming back to track after 36 days off , this looks like a recipe for success :-). The only thing I don’t like is he as never run on Tapeta before, I’m still happy to take on the favourite Captain Dion.

    GL today

    1. I had a small punt last night, Gavin. Tapeta shouldn’t be an issue, as he’s by Street Cry (22.7% on Newcastle a/w), although his progeny possibly tend to run / win over further. That’s why I kept it low stakes.
      Paul

      1. Yeah been looking Street city, just always plays in the back of my mind if they have never run on the surface. He as raced up 1m 2f and won at 1m, 7f and 6f looking at the sectional and way the race I feel will be run 6f shouldn’t be a problem.

        Lets hope we will be cheering him on as he is first past the post 😀

  9. Thanks Josh. Studying your January trainers info on Monday I was drawn to Tsondoku in the Wetherby 2.00 race on Tuesday. I placed a bet on bet365 on Monday evening taking the 16/1 available. The horse never seemed in trouble and McLernon steered it home comfortable.Going out tonight on the proceeds to stop a few pints going sour. Thanks once again for providing us with some tools to enjoy racing even more.

    1. Ah that’s what we like to hear…but what info was that, some of mine? Did I touch on Dunn somewhere? Either way, well done on backing him, 16s a lovely price- and that was never in doubt up the home straight, easy as you like! Drop back down in trip seemed to do the job, ran well to a point over 19f time before I recall- having looked at him after the race to try and explain the result! Market moves from that yard always should be noted.

  10. Just in to see Josh is tipping a favourite!!! he he!! legs fallen off Azert De Couer. What did we make of Bankhall at Catterick 3/1 out to 11/2 and beaten after 3 fences?(not pocket talking either!!)

    1. Ha, we was 8s or so when I got around to looking, thought that was a bit big if I was right. Backed into 7/2 and I was very very wrong again. Held up, again. Best I move on from that horse. No idea what would have happened in that race had the carnage not unfolded. The most solid horse in the race did the job.

  11. A few stat races for Newcastle tonight

    4.45 Newcastle – Haymarket 26.0 Betfair Exchange (current odds)

    Singspiel 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place – 50% win SR, 50% place SR
    Dropped significantly in trip after two runs here over 1M 4 1/2F & 2M 1/2F and racing off his lowest ever mark of 51 has won twice on turf over 1M 2F off 60 & 69 and of his 7 runs on AW his best and only place was a 2nd at Lingfield over a 1M off 73. Originally he was with Mahmood Al Zarooni & Mark Johnston before a hurdling stint with JP Ferguson and then 3 runs for Michael Bell and been with his current trainer for the past 2 years. Still only 8 years old and if showing any of his old ability with this drop to a more suitable trip and the sire stat makes him small ew play for at the odds.

    5.45 Newcastle – Shamrokh 1.86 Betfair Ex

    Nothing to get excited about here at the odds but John Gosden in 1M class 5 maidens at the track is 9 runs, 4 wins, 6 places 44.44% win SR none of the other trainers have even had a place under these same conditions.

    6.15 Newcastle – Darkside Dream 7.6 Betfair Ex
    6.15 —————– Merdon Castle 4.8 Betfair Ex

    The angle in here with Darkside Dream is with the trainer C Dwyer in Class 4, 6F races at the track he is 1 run, 1 win, 1 place and all 6F races here is 6 runs, 2 wins, 4 places & anyone who was around in the summer will know about Ruth Carr with James Sullivan on board with their 5 yr olds at certain tracks with odds 8/1 or less have over a 40.0% SR, at this track / surface they have a 3,2,2 record so a dutch bet for me and a wee f/c

    6.45 Newcastle – Erissumus Maximus 3.75 Betfair Ex
    6.45 ————– – Lady Cristal 19.5 Betfair Ex

    With Erissumus its C Dwyer again with a 4, 1, 3 record and the sire Holy Roman Emporer is 2,1,1 – Lady Cristal’s sire has a 3,1,2 record so another dutch play and f/c to finish the evening.

    Good Luck All

  12. Hi Josh. In your January trainer stats you highlighted A Dunn had 5 wins and 6 places from 15 starts in Handicap Hurdles so seemed like a good shot.

    1. Ah with you now, in the Members monthly research article! Was trying to think where I had published it! Damn, should have taken note of my own research but glad you have used it to profit, that’s what it’s all about.
      I note Smith is there for Catt, they have been on the free posts albeit i ignored Straidy, and also Kerry Lee I see..again, ignored Alfie Spinner. One day I will learn!
      If you spot any in the remaining week, do post a comment! 🙂

  13. Hi Josh. Don,t give up on Butlergrove just yet. HE looked awful in the paddock, woolly in his coat and sweating heavily on a cold day.Amazing the support for him, just goes to show most punters don,t go to the parade ring. Keep up the good work.

    1. Ah cheers Clive, how interesting! Maybe at that point connections thought best to hold him up! Clearly that was unwise money, and there was me growing in confidence when his price came in! As Nick says above,maybe wait for the yard to hit some form and any other indicators. At least I got the value haha.

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