TTP Jumps Notes: 17/01/17 (complete)(+results upd)

Quals + all ratings + notes results/NHF discussion…

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

***

1.The Ratings Pointers

 

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3 

2.40 E – Only Gorgeous UP- 8/1>12/1>7/1

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

3.30 A – Gold Opera- 3rd 14/1

(oh,from a high to a low in a matter of yards,thought we had that)

Top 3 

2.40 E – Only Gorgeous UP

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

AYR

3.30 – Gold Opera (micro class) 3rd 14/1

4.00 – Sky Full Of Stars (all hncps+hncp hurdle + micro distance)

 

EXETER

2.40

Only Gorgeous (hncp c) UP

Ray Diamond (micro TJC) UP

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Slightly scratching my head as to why the two RP horses are so weak- Only Gorgeous won well over CD LTO on his 3rd ever chase start and should still be open to improvement. Spotlight comment suggests he wasn’t the most consistent as a hurdler, so maybe that it is- he isn’t on a going day. Gold Opera only seems to perform around Ayr, but maybe the effect of the headgear swap has worn off- we shall see. I have backed both as usual, hopefully one can drop in…

Anyway…non ratings pointers horses..well no biggies above as yet unless they drift. I won’t be backing either. Ray Diamond is consistent, and that may be enough, but he is 12 and open to attack from younger legs and he needs to do more than his last two runs- I am not sure why he would. And he is a single figure price. Sky Full Of Stars is now 0/10 in his career, he didn’t do much over hurdles before going chasing, now back to hurdles. He did run well the last day in truth, and is lightly enough raced- and he would be the more interesting I think, of those two. But, I would like to see more over hurdles personally, to take a single figure price, but a decent run wouldn’t shock I suppose. If he were 10s+ I may be tempted to have a small go. Albeit heavy ground is an unknown for him, best form on good to soft to date.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update

  1. Ratings Pointers: Week End 15.01.17 : CLICK HERE TO READ>>>
  2. Total ‘All Qualifiers’: CLICK HERE>>> 

NHF: How to approach them

Well I think I have suffered a bit of ‘recency’ bias due to recent winners making me think these were doing better than they actually were..

If you had just backed NHF qualifiers since the start of the Members Only posts in early October: 62 bets / 9 wins / 23 places (inc wins) / +10 points.

Ok results, but before that 25/1 Hammond winner, they were -15 points or so. The last 16 bets are 6/16, +34 points.

So, what do we do with those? Well, that is up to you clearly. Backing them all has been an ok enough approach, but it seems will rely on the odd biggie going in over time.

I don’t think, on the evidence we have there, I am comfortable advising you to back them all,treating them like a stand alone micro system. Not yet anyway. That may contradict any previous advise to apologies if so- albeit they have been the most profitable in recent weeks.

I think I will take the approach of discussing such runners in section ‘3’ above. Some will be ratings pointers, so that is fine…the rest..well I have access to enough information that can hopefully help us back a few winners, while avoiding a few losers- and hopefully backing the odd biggie also. (ie trainers record with 1 or 2nd time starters, their form, any ‘market’ stats etc)

I will make sure I keep a separate record moving forward (as well as continuing to record results in the usual way) so that we can build up a better picture over time. As always, do with that information as you please. Any thoughts/comments/questions welcome.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    Be interesting to know the BFSP of the NHF qualifiers, as Mountain Path was 50 bfsp and the other pick Northern Girl was 75 bfsp, It may be more profitable to be backing them at BFSP?

      1. Yep..well looking at those 9 winners, only two have been double figures, one at 10/1 (didn’t note his name but cant imagine BFSP would have been massive, but could have been a few points) and that Hammond winner, 25/1 ISP, 50.00 BFSP, so yep, you could have made a bit more doing that no doubt. Certainly it would seem to make sense for the bigger priced ones. All the other winners have been around 11/2 or shorter, some well backed from memory, but 3/4 points in, not 10+ say. Something to keep an eye on. Josh

  2. A note others may find useful. I am following several things at the moment and have separate banks for each one which operate through different bookmakers. I am using W Hill for my TTP bets. Although early prices are not always the most generous I noted that I had been allocated a free bet on my account, which was a pleasant surprise. This related to the win on McGintys Dream, which as a High 5 race winner earnt a 25% bonus on winnings, up to a max of £100. This seems a good incentive especially for higher priced selections.

    1. Hi Andy,
      Nope, not this time..that is a novice chase… in the main guide bar the NHF stats, ALL other stats are for ‘standard’ handicaps (stripping out novice handicaps/maiden handicaps/selling handicaps etc) ,and as that is not a handicap, he doesn’t. The Bonus Stats deal with novice handicap chases, and some from Ireland.
      Richards generally does well in heavy ground, and he is in form- but you don’t want my views on novice chases, they are not worth much! 🙂

      But, do keep that eagle eye peeled, if in doubt, comment- I have missed 3 in 16 weeks or so now, none recently, but human error may creep in again at some point and your eagle eyes will be much appreciated if/when I do miss one first run through in future.
      Josh

  3. Thanks Josh,appreciated.
    It’s his only runner today and is shortening in the market,so I’ve had a little nibble. 🙂
    Andy

    1. That’s one of those where you have to have a go I think! The pain, having mentioned him, of not backing him far outstripping that of him losing! GL. Will watch with interest.

  4. Well having a bet in 3 at Kempton today

    13:55 – Mulit Quest win (think you can 8’s with Stanjames)
    15:05 – Outer Space win or E/w (I got 12’s last night he’s 9’s with BV,PP, BW now)
    17:40 – Miss Tiger Lily win (100/30 with SB,BFred,TS,C,BW)

    Mulit Quest is one of two who are bang in form other being Pancake day, I’ve gone with Mulit quest as got course experience and Pancake as never run round a right hand course, i’ll just see if that will make the difference.

    Outer Space, not run for 169 days, but I always take note went JS is on broad, Outer space is a hold up horse there seems to be some pace in the race, I would of liked a bit more though, just think they may be out for a bit of a touch we will see.

    Miss Tiger Lily, I don’t usually back in 2m AW, but Tiger Court the eye when coming in second to Aurora Gary, today they have both got 9-2 on there back, last time Tiger was 6lb heavier and only just finished runner up. I think these two will be battling it out again. Or I may be way off with either El Campeon who is dropping back in to a class 5 after his last run although he as never won or placed at kempton, and the old boy Saborido who as run well his last 3 times here at Kempton he’s top weight and dropping down in class from his last few runs.

    Good luck all

    1. Good luck Gavin,
      I did just have an idea- given how our ‘double double’ top rated have done 3/4, I thought I would see keep an eye on general double top rated, across all handicaps, so top rated HRB and top rated Geegeez Speed. Obviously these are outside of my TTP trainer stats (section 2) as the starting point, but may be interesting to see how they get on. I will keep an eye on over next few days..but there are a few at Kempton..

      firstly Ayr… 4.00- Surprise Vendor – 4/1

      Kempton
      1.55- Pancake Day (5/2)
      3.05 – War Department (5/1)
      4.40 – Tread Softly (13/8)
      5.40 – Aurora Gray (13/8)

      Be interesting to see how those 5 go. GL with yours.

      1. That is an interesting idea, and I’m definitely interested to see how they get on.

        I just hope for today only! it’s doesn’t work for 1.55,3.05 and 5.40 hehe 🙂

        1. I’ve been doing the same since last Wednesday, but only backing those where either the trainer or jockey are in some sort of form (any symbol on GG). I need to tally up properly, but I’m pretty sure taht just backing all double top rated selections is unprofitable but those with some kind of T/J form are showing a profit.

  5. Hi josh is the ” double double top rated have done 3/4” is that when the selections is top on geegeez & horseracebase ? looking for angle less bets but happy to go with value prices and wait for that winner just not sure which angle suits me best paid for a sub so gave me longer to look at what it’s all about 🙂 i use ratings myself from somewhere other then geegeez and horseracebase so hoping i can mix it with yours and see what i can dig out 🙂

    1. Hi Dan.. yep, so not to confuse things..

      Everything in sections 1-4 above, starts from my TTP jumps stats pack..a horse has to qualify against that stats pack, my research, in order to get on these daily members posts..

      The ratings pointers are a way to narrow down the bets..you can see two links to results now, above.. have a flick through the ratings pointers…if you want fewer bets , 1-2 per day on average , I would stick with any horse ‘Top Rated’ in section 1., either HRB or Geegeez Speed. You can see the results for that in the link in section 4. (ratings pointers results) They have performed well in general- only 4 horses have qualified top rated against both HRB and Geegeez (so ‘double top rated’- hope that makes sense) and 3 of them have won- I would say that is a bit too narrow a focus personally.

      Top rated may be the way to go, and then you may wish to dabble on other ratings pointers horses ‘top 3’ (so effectively 2nd or 3rd rated) or other qualifiers from section 2.

      This approach allows both a ‘set and forget’ model, ie don’t think, just back the ratings pointers in a way that suits you, and also allows you to bring your own thoughts to the party really as well.

      Yep if you have other ratings, by all means keep notes on those and how the qualifiers from section 2 do against them. That may be your very own approach and it may work for you.
      Josh

  6. Hi Josh or anyone else that might use Geegeez….

    could you please tell me where the Speed Ratings came for the first two Hcap winners today

    1.30 Exeter….. Pink Gin
    1.55 Kempton…..Tilsworth Micky

    are they rated top, second, third etc or worse

    thanks for any help

      1. Hi Josh

        and yet the two of them….and the next winner 2.05 Ex Martha McCandles…..all 3 had been top rated “Trainer (Tnr)” column in HRB…..I just wanted to know if May’s Speed Figures in Geegeez had backed these figures up and sadly they didn’t

        Yesterday 6 Hcap winners, including Tomahawk Wood, had been T/R in this column…..today i missed all three by being out of the house

    1. Funny old game eh. I was roaring him home, thought we had it. Has just tied up I think, or something caught his eye and he just stopped, is a tricky bugger, but he clearly likes Ayr thought. Still, good run for our money. Damn.

      1. Never seen a horse empty out as quick, incredible. He did same after the last at Kelso in April and was off for 232 days!

  7. hi josh

    those all NHF results are bit deflating. but having had nice BFSP weekend win with mountain path, my take on it is that will back all TTP NHF @ BFSP on all 20 to 1 plus.

    1. Hi Malcolm…well, yes and no, they are ok, and enough running well, but certainly as a micro stand alone, some questions. A case could probably be made to back all qualifiers (section 2) that are 20/1+ , at BFSP. That is something we should start monitoring as must be 7 or 20/1+ winners now, only 1 on ratings pointers, a few before they came into existence.
      All the stats are finding winners, and making profits if you backed the lot- (which given number of bets, low ROI, reliance on big prices, I don’t recommend, not as against ratings pointers, in terms of backing systematically) which means a good foundation.
      As always, how you use the info is up to you. The stats will find biggies, let’s just hope we will be on some, in addition to the ‘bread and butter’ ratings pointers.

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