Well, Leg Iron drifted pre race as if he had lost a leg, and threw in another moody performance. I can live with those, no problem. If he was going to bounce back, it was going to be in a race just like that. His mark should come down again and maybe he ‘has’ to get an easy lead, otherwise he doesn’t run his race. He couldn’t get the lead I thought he would, young Bowen had other ideas, and that was that. I suspect he will go in again over CD, but clearly you would want a price, and he will need to be well placed- both to get an assured lead and lack of unexposed oppo. Of course, he could just be gone at the game.
Thankfully Tomahawk Wook (9/1) ensured it wasn’t a total blank across the blog. Moving on..
Kilbree Chief – 1 point win – 7/2 (BF/Tote) 10/3 (general) (G1/H3) UP
Appears not many are handling that ground there today, i didn’t think it would be that bad, and in any case, on paper, there were enough fine efforts on heavy not for me to be put off. The winner was no shock, given conditions, and anyone reading any of the comments below may have taken covery fire when apparent how testing it was. I thought selection would just be better than that winner, but doesn’t appear he has handles that ground, so clearly doesn’t like that type of heavy as much as I thought he would. Another poor one. They tend to rack up at the moment, in among the odd glimmer of hope that I may find some consistency/go on a run. Don’t think I have given the Morney Wing/Cabrag 2017 profits back just yet.
10/3 is just about ok i think for this Lucinda Russell charge- who also happens to be the only horse in here who is both top 3 on Geegeez Speed and HRB (which, given the success that approach has for my TTP stats/members posts, i seem to like using as a guide more generally)- I can’t think what other Russell horse ticked the same boxes recently. Hmmm. 🙂
Anyway, this one enjoys Ayr, and esp when it is soft- he has never run a bad race here as yet, winning over CD last February and comes here in reasonable enough form, 3rd run of the season. He ran ok the last day, on ground that was probably lively enough, over a trip that was maybe far enough and against better horses. He drops in class here, 1/2,2p in C4<6k handicaps, he likes the track, he likes the mud, and this is only his 8th chase start. Russell is in form – 3/13,4p in the last 14 days and we should get a good spin from him. He can carry weight and gets a handy 7lb off from a decent young jockey who has some decent enough stats. No concern there I don’t think- the one niggle being he hasn’t ridden the horse, but he is straight forward enough. He ran a decent race at the Scottish GN meeting also, in a C2, coming second, a decent stable mate he beat that day also! There is a chance he is just a bit better than these, and at 10/3, given the questions over some of them, I thought that was just about ok.
I really do need to start upping my game, esp in the 10/3>6/1 range- those prices can be ‘value’, if you can spot them. I did ok with Cabragh LTO, hopefully this can be another one.
There are a few pace angles in this also, and he usually just sits off it, so again, no excuses. If it is clear he is in a rhythm early, and jumping well, he will go close.
Of the rest..
well Nortonthorpe… a worthy fav maybe, going for the 4 timer. He is up another 8lb in a stronger race and has to prove he will handle heavy. That may be no problem at all, and the trip may not be either- but he is doing a few things differently and combined with that 8lb looks worth taking on- he can’t keep winning forever. Grove Silver is interesting but doesn’t win often enough for me, too many places, and the one race he did win recently was poor. He handles the ground and does stay well, but there is something about him which just put me off. He had a tough enough race the last day also.
We are then getting into the realms of horses having either a stamina and or ground question to answer…well I say that, Jonny Eager doesn’t and if this turns into slow motion stuff, he could take it- but he looks a slow boat to me who may need a stiffer finish against some of these, just to slow them down. He will win a staying chase this season, probably in hock deep mud at Hexham when nothing else handles it. He gallops, but the selection is just a much faster horse I suspect, as are a couple more in here. He will run his race- i suspect he may have hated the visor LTO, so a line through that, but still a niggle- he was 19l behind the selection when he won here early 2016 over CD.
So, Mossies Well has a few questions to answer after the break. Unexposed but stamina an unknown, esp in this ground. He has his well being to prove also. Bonzo Bing ran welll LTO on good, chasing home the fav. Now 0/10,2p over fences so he has questions, maybe more about his willingness to want to win, albeit heavy over this far a question also. Hasn’t proved he can’t/won’t, but is 7s, not 16s.
Settledoutofcourt is not out of this but is getting long in the tooth now and his best form is on a sound surface and he looks out of sorts. Bit of a slow plodder and he may be here to help ensure a decent pace for the stables main hope/to unsettle anything else that may try and lead. He could out run his odds but I would be surprised if he took this- too many young legs up against him and most of his recent form has been poor.
So, that’s the lot I think. Hopefully KK can run a good race, I think he could out-class these with any luck and as such, given the yard form, his track form, drop in class etc, 10/3 looked fair enough.
NTD Unexp Chasers
3.15 Exet- Ballypoint- 14, G3
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST
2.40 Exet – Grand Gold- H3
2.55 Ayr – Mango Cap
Jan Trainer Pointers
4.10 Kemp – Starboard (any odds) 14,30
That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets.