FREE DAILY POST: 16/01/17 (complete)

Tip + micro systems/angles + reflections.

 

TIPS

3.05 Plump

Leg Iron – 1 point win – 16/1 (Betstars/BV/PP) 14/1 (general) PU

16/1>9/1>20/1… ah well, not even a return here could spark him to life- maybe he just hates not getting an easy lead- will keep an eye on him back here, but clearly hard to catch right and you want to take a price on him. Never really travelled, which was possible with him.

 

142/16s feels well worth a go for this mercurial character of a horse. Plumpton is his track, and if/when he bounces back to form, it will be here. His last three runs here over fences he has done well… 1,2,1 (2nd beaten 1l) every one of those performances was on the back of a PU somewhere else, two of them Fontwell, just like last time. So, if you are going to ignore letters in a horses form, this is a horse to do it with. He is 2/7,5p here in handicap chases, 1/4,4p over CD. He likes the mud and he stays, very well- he gets a bit further- those two things pose major questions for quite a few in here- ‘unknowns’ for some, yet to prove they can or can’t handle such conditions. That last run was also only 3 days after seasonal reappearance. He does well in this rest pattern and is a proven weight carrier over fences. He also drops into C4 again, and is a ‘ratings pointer’ horse for my TTP stats/members post.

All in all, he looks well worth a go here. IF he can bounce back to his ‘plumpton form’ (and he rarely runs a bad race here) he should give us a run for our money. Hopefully he can get the lead, or in any case be up there- if it is clear he is travelling early, comfortably on the front end, he should be out-running these odds.

The dangers…

Well, he is 12 now so clearly open to attack from younger legs. Talk of The South and Sweettoothtommy are both TTP ratings pointers also and knowing my luck all three will get beat. Preference would just be for the former of those two, just in the sense I know he handles soft. He is in form, and running well, 9/2 or so is ok. Pipe’s is unexposed and if handling soft (no idea) should be running his race also, if building on that last run. Maybe of some interest that Tommy Scu has gone up to Ayr? But, that may not be a negative for his chances, maybe more a positive for his rides up there. Hopefully one of those three takes it, with a big preference for Leg Iron, at the odds for sure.

Henllan Harri- well he has been kept to a sound surface so who knows if he will cope with soft. A bit like OneForArthur, he hasn’t proved he can’t handle it/stay etc, but he is 3/1, not 16/1- you should be able to take such chances on 16/1 shots, usually,esp when so much else in their favour!! Royal Salute has stamina beyond 2m5f to prove, and these are tough conditions in which to do it. He may relish it, but again is only 4/1. Howlongisafoot is out of sorts and it may be of interest that Tom Cannon is on IToldYou, he would have had the choice…

That old boy is a danger, simply because he stays and relishes the mud. Leg Iron has beaten him over 3m2f here, Itoldyou has done likewise over 3m5f. It isn’t impossible these two have it between them some way from home. His last two runs suggest he may be more of a C5 animal and a tad regressive, but dangerous to dismiss as he likes conditions and will handle them, probably better than some in here. But again, only around 6/1 so not massive.

That’s the lot. PACE.. Leg Iron is the only horse to have led in here on any of his last 4 runs, and I hope they bounce him out. He could get his own way, and we could have some fun if so. Bowen’s may be up there also, and IToldYou can press the pace.

***

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- LIVE TEST

3.05 Plump – Sweettoothtommy – G1- UP

 

Other

Jan Trainers (pointers)

2.45 Ayr – Freddies Portrait (any odds) G3 – 2nd (needs to go RH on that evidence) 

**

That will be all on the betting front today. Good luck with any wagers.

***

Quick reflection…

Saturday felt like the Cheltenham Festival 2016 all over again- where, from memory- my big race stats/profile approach shortlisted the winner of 8 of the 10 handicaps- how many did I tip/back? Yep, just the one- he was 20/1 mind, but still, what might have been (coincidentally,as something you can remind me about closer to the time- if there is a Gordon Elliot trained, or Davy Russell ridden, horse in a race shortlist,just back the thing!)

Anyway, OneForArthur.. as I look at my notepad, he was effectively in a shortlist of 3/4- and along with the two selections was the only other one not to have a stats angle against him really. What did I do wrong? Well, as I have done before, I talked myself out of a winner- and as Norman noted in comments on a members post, I will probably do it again. In part, that is the game. A puzzle, one that I get wrong many more times than I get right. But, being so close is painful,and it was poor. Why should I have backed him? Well, he was prominent on the stats shortlist. He came here with the best recent form- the best- that close 5th in the Becher G3, was probably the best piece of ‘last run’ form on offer here,by some way. And he was the only horse to be top 3 HRB and top 3 Geegeez Speed (as a guide) in fact he was top rated on geegeez, by some way. Doh. And he was 16/1. He was the biggest price. Moron. Amateur hour. Those factors alone made him a clear bet. But I tried to be too smart – ‘oh his best form has been on a sound surface’ well, yes it had, but he had not proved he couldn’t handle deep ground (a novice run and another suggested may be ok) or that he couldn’t stay- and the way he ran at Aintree suggested he may relish it. So, plenty of things to learn, again!

Maybe I am best sleeping on these things before tipping – making that decision was at the end of a 2 hour process or so, when including the stats shortlisting, and pondering. Maybe a break, clear the head, before making a final decision may help.

And,if in doubt, always assume a Russell horse will handle the mud and stay. As she said post race, they try and buy horses laden with stamina and that should handle winter ground. Most of hers are trained to gallop,up a stiff hill, and plenty of them do. That may be why she has such a good Hexham record, esp in the mud. That saps the stamina.

We move on. Being close to big race winners is annoying but I will take the positive from the stats approach- and if the shortlisting works like that in 6/7 out of every 10 big races or so, with any luck my pins will land on the odd one. But, that is one that definitely got away, given my approach.

***

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

    1. Ah, it’s an ok read – I certainly am fine on the judging myself stuff etc! And am generally always looking forward. But when it comes to analysing my tipping performance, a race, post race- I could probably fit in quite well at opus dei, strapping some metal spikes to my thigh and whipping myself haha. Or, whatever else they get up to! It’s the only way to be if you wish to improve, and if you want to stop making such stupid errors- one of these days it will all come together – well, it did last Jan/Feb, and hasn’t quite come together in the same way since! The mood will be lifted once Leg Iron romps to victory 🙂

    1. Well sometimes the market doesn’t know and recent form can have a big influence. I must admit to not having a single bet yesterday, and ended up not looking at a single horse/race- which clearly, post race,was an error. Suppose he returned to heavy, change of headgear again, and had a lot less actual weight on his back. A class question, but did that well enough.Glad you and some others go on, as well as Chis’ 66/1 poke, good day it seems!

  1. Hi Josh
    I think the idea of a break after finding your shortlist before making a selection is the way to go. I do this myself now and have seen an improvement in results.
    By the way did you get the jockey/ trainer combo list I sent through the other day?

    1. Hi David, yep I think so- i think mentally you can get to the point of just wanting to make a decision and be done with it! I will try the ‘have a break’ approach – given his price, there really shouldn’t have been much deeper thought required. Never mind.

      Ah yes i did, thanks, couple of you have sent it through now, I will have a read. Sorry, appears I failed to reply! Josh

  2. Hi Josh,

    I had watched One for Arthur at Aintree, he was the only one who had not tackled the fences before in the first 5. I do believe he looks like Amberleigh house and may cause an upset in the national, whether that be this year or next.
    I to, did like you and missed him out of my 4 picks for the race, but, i take solace in the fact that Rigidan gave me a damn good run for my money.
    I should have listened to Matt Chapman on ITV ,who said the favourite never really wins this race and when there were 4 co-favourites before the off they should really have been scratched, leaving the one and only for Arthur haha, hindsight and all that!
    I find picking 2 in each race is enough though and at least keeps it interesting, sometimes!
    Sweettoothtommy and talk of the south are the two i have against the field in your race Josh, good luck to yours though!

  3. Sorry Josh

    I think you should have had a “Leg Iron” break…no pun intended…..and gone for the Honeyball horse, Royal Salute

    although your horse has shortened in the market…..you might have got it right after all….damn…..will carry on reading my e-books, safer I think…

    1. It does look a trappy race, GL. Not convinced as to RAs stamina- well, he has to prove it, which it may well do- in that context I thought his morning price wasn’t overly generous.Leg Iron just looked too big given his course form. We shall see, he will win or be PU no doubt! GL

    2. Well done, you called that spot on. Relished that test it seems, did it well in the latter stages. Leg Iron has another off day, given how well he usually goes here, maybe he just isn’t right at the moment- or he has to get the lead, not sure. Never mind.

  4. Leg Iron is one that requires little thought,first that jumped off the page(well screen) last night,just a straight aim and shoot,irrespective of the result when you are getting 20/1-16/1 on 10/1 shots

  5. I think importantly on Bernadelli was his trainers comment a while back. ”It depends which Bernadelli turns up”….yesterday with conditions right as well…he turned up. And you can’t fathom that.
    I got 12/1 and was happy, but it could have been a sit down day just as easy.

  6. All I know about today is the the Moore stable fancy Plutocracy in the 4.30 Wolves. Their horses seem a bit freaky still and so only a small bet on there horses at present. Also I think separately Superstar may go well, 2.55 Wolves. I like Brayden Bot as a winner, 2.10 Ayr.

    Good luck.

  7. Tipster supermarket is offering Pat Eddery tiping service for just 5 GBP. Just great,that legandary jockey and trainer has died some years ago.Greedy is terrible poison,memory about him has to be respected i think
    To awful to me

  8. Hi Josh / All

    2 x 3rd place finishes on Saturday for the stallions with Ice Royal going close not quite getting there beaten a couple of heads, there was another 2 for today but just noticed Sea Tea Dea is a non runner in the 1.50 leaving just the 1………

    Wolves 4.00 – Antiquarium 2.5 best odds most books
    New Approach, 2M 1/2F, 4 runs, 2 wins, 2 places 50% win SR 50% place SR
    Well this sire has a very similar record at Newcastle over 2M showing a liking for the distance and surface, there has also been 2 different winners for the above stats (short in the betting though)

    Staking £18.54 – 2% of £926.95

    Others to note

    2.20 Wolves – Draw Sword 2.5 best odds Stan James
    Dansili 16 runs, 5 wins, 7 places, 31.25% Win SR,43.75% Place SR

    2.55 Wolves – Mythical Maddness 4.5 best odds across the board
    Dubawi 33 runs, 10 wins, 17 places, 30.3% Win SR, 51.52% place SR

    Good Luck with “Leg Iron” Josh and everyone with your selections

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. Both of those ridden plenty of winners for him.Be interesting if Paddy can help tidy up Easter’s jumping, ‘could be better’ I think. No negatives on either of those, and interested he has gone for those two actually.

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