FREE DAILY POST: 06/01/16 (complete)

developing…

 

TIPS

none. No races of interest.. the 2.40 Wetherby looks Amber Gambler’s to lose to my eye.  I was ‘hoping’ he may have been put in at 5/2, 3/1 say, which may have been worth a go even in a C5 chase – as it happens he has opened 5/6 which is too short for me but baring a fall should be winning like a 1/2 shot I suspect. (that is a throwaway price comment,not based on a thorough assessment of his rivals or too much in depth thought at all really!) His rivals are old and out of form on the whole and look a moderate, beatable bunch. The booking of James King says it all also I think. Of course he has fences to jump- which some may say makes 5/6 too short in any chase- and he only ran 5 days ago. I will watch with interest.

Sandown will be the highlight on Saturday- 19 go to post for the Veteran’s Chase series final and it looks a corker. I have had the briefest of looks without checking the weather forecast as yet, and the three that stood out were Rocky Creek, Gas Line Boy and Theatrical Star – I will have a proper look in depth on Friday and any tips (well, there will be tips no doubt) will be posted early evening.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Harry Fry Mares (10/1< guide) (0/10,2p over 10/1 SP)

3.20 Lud – Tangley 14,30 H3

 

Other

Jan Trainers (starting points..)

6.45 Wolv – Gleaming Girl – 14 H3 WON 9/2

 

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

Note: The introduction of such pointers has helped add a level of sophistication to the TTP Jumps qualifiers, driving up massively the win/place % sr and the ROI considerably.

 

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All-Weather TTP 

Again, another quiet day ahead on the jumps front so I will highlight any qualifiers. These stats found a 16/1 winner at the last Wolvs meeting on Boxing Day i believe (my eyes,sadly enough,were on the jumps!) and have found a couple of 12/1+ winners at recent Dundalk meetings also. Fingers crossed they may do the same as there wasn’t much to cheer on Thursday! …

Kempton

2.30 – Too Many Shots H3 UP

Wolvs

7.45 – Vogueatti 14 H3 UP

8.15 –

The Last Debutante UP

Lorikeet H3 G1 UP 7/1>5/2

 

Dundalk

4.55 – Geological – H3 (no speed ratings) UP

 

***

That will be all for today.

Other News…

In other news, I am in the process of lining up a guest blog from Darran Pearce – an expert in the field of Hunter Chases and Point To Points. He has done some punditry for ATR in the past and I can’t wait to read this post. That will be within the next couple of weeks. Moving forwards there is a possibility we may explore the world of PtPs which is something I wouldn’t mind knowing more about. Anyway, there will be something of interest there to get stuck into. (I have our own Nick Mazur to thank for pointing me his way) 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    What would be the reason(s) for Amber Gambler being too short for you at 5/6? I ask because being someone who is obviously well educated in betting and as an advocate of finding value I would of thought the comment “barring a fall should win like a 1/2 shot I suspect” would indicate that the price is right and a max bet be the advice that would follow. I am guessing you have a price threshold that you dont bet below. But I am just interested in what that may be. Personally I try to ignore the price as much as I can. If I think a horse is the best in the race and should win easily I would bet up to 1/2 and the reason I would go past this is that I couldn’t afford to put enough on to make the bet worth the risk, if you see what I mean. Ultimately Amber Gambler is either a good bet at 5/6 or lay material depending on what you think to its chance. If you dont bet/advise your either ducking it or have a reason which you haven’t clearly stated. Just interested not trying to provoke a long discussion or and argument

    1. I think I have psychological issues below about 3/1 I think! I just don’t like going that short for the simple reason that you have to be right a lot of the time- so often in fact that I know I wouldn’t be right often enough. And I wouldn’t enjoy watching that race if I had £20/£30 on it.(1/1.5 points for me)
      As I said he does have quite a few fences to jump and it is a quick return, even though he bolted up LTO. Those two reasons may make that a tad skinny, or about right. If the price is about right, then he isn’t ‘value’. On paper, his form,ratings, a very brief look at the others, suggests he could win that comfortably- with luck in running – what price do we put on luck in running? Jumping, not being brought down, saddle slipping etc?

      Also, price is ‘feel’ as much as anything for me, getting better with experience. And the way my jumps tips beat BFSP so much, against advised prices, suggests I am ok at it. Albeit always room for improvement. I can look at a Morney Wing and be confident 12s is too big for me,as an example, having looked through the race. I don’t do tissues, or as yet having a method for doing so,which does involved an assessment of all runners. Really that is the only way you know ‘true value’ , when you have that nailed. And that is something to aspire to maybe. But really that is also why I have around a 3/1, 7/2 cut off personally. As i said, you have to be right a lot more at that end and you really do need to know you your numbers when focusing on the top end of the market. And i am a recreational punter, not a pro- you need to be doing your own tissues etc I think to elevate to that status, albeit with everything else I try and be as ‘professional’ as I can be.

      I would disagree that something is either a ‘good bet or a lay’ but that’s just me.

      1. Cheers for the quick and concise reply. All perfectly understandable. My comment about a good bet or a lay depends on how strong you feel about the horses chances. When I look at a race I look for the standouts in terms of win bets or lays. So the best races for me are where I can only find one of each. That way the rest of the runners would be not sure’s, could go close, remote chance and I can bet/lay on the selections (all depending on price, of course 🙂 )

  2. Josh
    I got wind of this horse CROSSPARK 1.35 W when looking at a recent selection Pobbles Bay. The race in question is 12/11/16 Uttoxeter won by PB who has won since, CP was ru unplaced on next outing, 6th of 7 to Gold Present. 3rd was Bun Doran won since, 4th was Poker School won TWICE since, 6th Brandon Hill won since, 7th Champagne at Tara 2nd on next run to Red Devil Star.
    Crosspark is 8’s as I speak. Worth a punt if ever I saw one.

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike, great spot- and having had a quick browse I quite agree. As soon as you mentioned Pobbles I knew the race you meant at Uttox, I am not sure if there is a race that has worked out so well this jumps season anyway, not for producing future winners. Even two of the horses that failed to complete have won!
      Yep, I suspect he may have needed that reappearance at Uttox which makes that run even better- or just beat by a much better horse but given how that form has worked out, no harm in that.

      I think you have to take note that Skelton is on – he seems to be the go to jockey for Bailey these days, and she likes to use him as much as she can – in fact they are 11/34,14p in all handicaps, 7/19,9p +15 in handicap chases – off the top of my head! 🙂 (i did just look that up,clearly) There is a chance he found 19f on lively enough ground happening too quickly for him at Donny – this step up looks interesting,

      I wouldn’t mind if Bailey was in a tad more form but there has been the odd sign of ‘placed’ life in recent days and she is 4/18,7p at the track in handicap chases, first such runner in a ‘novice handicap’

      I think at 8s, it would be rude not to have some sort of interest, given all of that etc, and the form as you point out, and there is a valid excuse for LTO I think, that feels big. I think they may be due some rain also, softer the better for him.
      GL (and great spot, I was after some chase action for the day- I don’t ‘tip’ in novice handicaps for various reasons)
      They are tricky races, lots of unexposed types, in form some of them, but fingers crossed we get a run for our money. Market support would be welcome with hers.
      Josh

      1. Wetherby is one of the William Hill High 5 meetings tomorrow as well, which would mean a 25% win boost or a second place refund up to £25 if the race is won by 5+ lengths. I’ve made a fair few quid extra from this offer over the last couple of weeks.

    2. I’m on at 15/2. My fear is What a Moment. Won well at Cheltenham and then disappointed at Chepstow, finishing a length or so ahead of Kerrow, who Josh gave a strong mention to on the 30th and duly. I think the key to the Chepstow race for both horses was lack of pace. I’d imagine that Hainan may make the running and if a decent pace I might have a saver on What a Moment in running.

      1. yep, What A Moment looks interesting… looks like he wants decent ground, and what with frost etc etc I can never tell what it is ‘sticky’ sometimes, which seems to be a going all of its own which some simply don’t handle.
        When he ran at Aintree i thought he was tricky, which Pipe seemed to confirm,he could of won there but failed to go through with effort. I think he got a good ride at Chelts, clearly had a tonne in hand but he was never challenged in a battle, rather cruised up and didn’t know he was in a race. I have a slight niggle with him- if he cruises up, battles, and shoots passed whoever is in front, that will put those fears to rest! I got him rather wrong at Cheltenham! From memory he was the only ‘could be anything’ type in that race, and he duly bolted up.

        Yep, that Chepstow race was all about the pace and any runner from that worth a second glance as wouldn’t have been run to suit. Likewise, the winner, Sykes- hard to know what to make of the form, interesting if he follows up in a more strongly run race- but good to know he has a turn of foot, can see him winning a small field crawl>dash, chase again.

  3. GOOD WORDS FOR CROSSPARK, SOME 8/1 ABOUT NOW.

    I THINK THAT THREEBAGSUE AT 16/1 COULD SPRING A SURPRISE IN THE 6.45 WOLVES.

  4. Hi Josh / All

    “Super Stallions” update 1 winner 5 losers running total £952.75

    Missed all racing today with a busy schedule and just the update with 1 split stake winner and 2 losers…onwards to tomorrow and 1 selection

    Dundalk 5.30 – US Navy Seal 4.5 Coral / SkyBet best odds
    War Front 9 runs, 4 wins 6 places – 44.44% win SR 66.67% place SR

    War Front is the go to sire at Dundalk with an overall record between 7F & 1M 2 1/2F of 30 runs, 15 wins, 25 places 50% win SR, 83.33% place SR

    Be back tomorrow with more detail

    Cheers
    Steve

  5. A couple of thing I have noticed that may be worth a second look.
    2:30 K Av a Word:- 1st Hcp up in distance, down in class, gelded since LR & Jose booked to ride took some at 20/1 earlier.
    7:15 W My Brother Johnny Trg change to some one that does well with inmates from other stables. Hcp debut, up in distance 7f to 2m 119y! Sires progeny are 9.73% on AW over 5yrs but 20% over today’s distance! Available @ 8/1.
    Josh on your angles I think the standout one is 8:15 Lorikeet.

    1. Oh Malc, missed the boat there? he has halved in price now, albeit the money often talks with these- baring an accident it looks like he is the one to be on here. We shall see. Dave in his Daily Punt column put him up as his bet of the day also. You bet whatever you wish, I tend to focus on points 🙂 How many points is 90 for you, if you don’t mind me asking?

      We have Mike to thank for that early spot, whatever he does now, those on at 15/2, 8s, somewhat ‘have the value’

  6. Crosspark qualifies on an old midnight legend system I have been following for a few years, currently 1 for 15 and 4 places. That one winner being 6/4 fav so I wish you all luck but for me it’s a case of best watched! Of more interest is Lucymai in the 3.00 Kempton, not much on form but has won at the course 50s in a maiden but not shown much since. Was available at 14s last night so nice to see some market support as it’s into 8s atm fingers and toes crossed!!!

  7. hi josh, reference CROSSPARK, 1 point is £ 80 , but matt bisogno dream team system gave it as well, so another £10 on it for that

  8. Hi Josh / All

    2 races of interest at Kempton this afternoon

    2.30 Kempton – Dragon Dream 18.0 Betfair Exchange

    This Dragon Pulse filly has showed a real liking for the track and no surprise really as the sire has an impressive polytrack record of 15 runs 6 wins 9 places and at this venue 8 runs, 4 wins, 5 places although all the wins have been at 6F & 7F . The filly has had 3 runs at the track with 2 wins and a place all over 7F, Today is a mile and all known evidence so far on the sire’s side is that 7F is the furthest they want to go. However if we look at the dam Night Scent her progeny have won up to 1M 1/2 F and numerous times over a mile including at this venue giving plenty of hope that todays filly will see out the mile. The main downside today is the draw in 14 but I guess they will be holding the filly up today anyway and she can drop in behind them or if they really feel she will see out the mile well then she can go from the front with her early speed, At 18.0 I think overall she is worth a go and I have gone EW.

    5.00 Kempton – Eljadaaf 4.6 & Higher Court 25.0

    Purely stallion based Shamardal over 6F Kempton on standard to slow
    4 runs, 3 wins, 3 places with 3 different horses winning 75% win SR, 75% place SR, Be back later if anything looks interesting this evening

    Cheers
    Steve

  9. Crosspark… hmmm…you can’t give a stayer that many lengths head start- judgement from Skelton would be ‘he is going too quick, he will stop’ – IF they don’t stop, you are done for, as, in that ground especially (sticky/dead/tacky) it takes so much effort to make up the ground- impossible really, the gap cook got at the start was maintained all the way round. Of course, if Skelton had been within 4 lengths the whole way, he may have been out on his feet over the last couple- maybe he was just the better horse. Good ride by Cook for sure. He clearly has chase wins in him and stayed well enough.

    1. Ha, Ah, well- most horses I/you/we back that are put in at 14s are often still running the next day! You don’t need many to drop in at those odds. Do track- you may have my annoying habit of having backed them 1/2/3 starts before they actually win!

      1. Apart from ttp and any of yours I like the look of I only do system bets as I can’t read form or predict how a race might go lol I’m sure I will back lucymai if she’s out again before the end of April as long as she meets all the rules 😉

  10. 2 x for this evening

    6.30 Dundalk – Split the Atom 4.0

    Put this boy up last time over 6F and got shuffled back to the rear before making up all the ground in the last furlong finishing 4th dropped another 1lb and a win is surely not far away. His overall figures at Dundalk is 19 runs, 5 wins, 11 places and over 7F (todays trip) he is 7, 1, 5 and has won off as high as 87 and is racing off 80 today. He has looked in great fettle the last twice and just has not had the luck in running hopefully all will even out today and he can add to his 5 course wins

    7.45 Wolves Heartstone – 11.5

    Out of Fastnet Rock on tapeta arguably the sire’s fav surface , Over the track & distance the sires progeny have a 16 run, 4 wins, 7 place record and is the only multiple winning sire over C&D in this race, this is the filly’s first try here although she has run on the tapeta at Newcastle over 1M finishing 2nd showing a liking for the surface. Yet to win a race this lightly raced but 4 time runner up filly should outrun these odds today and with the dead 8 runners looks a solid EW play for me….

    Cheers
    Steve

  11. Cheers Steve ,put hearthstone in a forecast to be second to fav with bet365. Paid 12 -1 to small stakes thanks again.

    1. Excellent Stuff Michael was looking good around the home turn for the win but definitely bumped into one with that Fav a lot more to come from that one

      Cheers
      Steve

      1. Well done Steve with him, nice EW price. Yep wasnt that a superb ride by Josie, switch to inside won it. Had she been on the fav, he would have won for me, his poor young jockey didn’t know where to go! Lost his patience on inside rail 1/2 furlong too soon I think. I wont complain, took a bit of the 9/2. Hoping Lorikeet goes in here, on him at 7s! now 5/2. Sadly, I know what will happen now…

        1. Yes defo agree fav was travelling by far the best and the in running punters thought so too Gleaming Girl was matched at over 900/1 in play someone will be very happy tonight…..Ah yes you beat the market comfortably there Josh next time

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