Phew. Nice to get a good winner on the board. Paddy Brennan wasn’t a bad super sub for Fehily. God he gives a horse confidence at a fence, that is the best he has every jumped to my eye and it probably won him the race/ensured he saved energy. After the first 2/3 fences where he jumped well and travelled sweetly just behind the pace, it was never in doubt to my eye that he would be thereabouts at the end. A good start to the year and I will try my best to build on it. It can keep raining solid for the next week for all I care, the deeper the better for me it seems! I just need the TTP stats to pick up, for the pockets of new members if nothing else- after a haul of silly profits they have taken a dip since I launched the Xmas special offer which was bloody typical I suppose, and probably a natural correction. But, if Oct-Dec is anything to go by,they will reward any long term backers. 45/50% are hitting the frame and the winners won’t be far away if that continues.
1.15 B- Cabragh 1.5 points win
1.30 M – Golden Investment 1 point win
Cabragh – 1.5 points win – 5/1 (PP/BetfairS) 9/2 (bet365) (only ones priced up) WON 5/1>11/4
(not sure what price to declare that,cant think many got 5s, maybe 9/2…) (+6.75 points race)
Also the 14/1 forecast – may have had a nibble on both the permutations there, they led 1-2 all the way round!
1.5 points may be a bit over-confident but I think given the amount of front running chasers that I have backed to victory, inc during what has been a slump over the last few months, if I am going to be more confident on a horse it should probably be on one I think could make all.
5/1 is more than fair here and I would have him as second fav,3s maybe, or arguably given the ‘been there and done it’ aspect of his profile he could arguably be fav. The trip was too short for him the last day and he wasn’t able to dictate, but he still ran his race. The time before that he somewhat bolted up- the Sam ‘Drake’ England method getting horses well handicapped in novice company – Ali certainly spotted that trend and made sure he got paid a couple days back. Well, at this trip, there really is still a ‘could be anything’ trait about his profile. He could still have plenty in hand and I fully expect England to boot him out in front. Well he better, that is one of the reasons I am slightly bullish about getting a very good run for my money. He stays 26f well so they should. Now, it could be that he beat nothing two starts ago. That is a possibility. This could be how good he is. But, he should have track position and if jumping well/getting into a rhythm he will ask questions of the rest. There are not many other front runners in here- those that have look reluctant to do so/can track, so fingers crossed he can dictate. It will be a long 3m for us backers if he doesn’t. I suppose a slight question over soft but not enough for me to be put off.
5s just looks solid.
The rest… well the Pauling horse is clearly fancied to go well here and he really ‘could be anything’ and I suppose could just be a lot better than these. He will come on for that run as well I suspect. He was held up there and I hope they do that again- if that is the case his jumping will be put under pressure as at some point he will have to close what I hope will be our leader. He got out-paced a tad the last day (could have been fitness) and if he hits a flat spot here he could stuggle. Heskin does like to ride a chaser close to the pace, but I hope he leaves us alone. Getting into a pace battle with an inexperienced chaser will hopefully dissuade him. I would be mildly surprised if one of these two doesn’t win. Maybe a ‘saver/muggy’ forecast!
Copper Birch has the ability but was poor the last day and has no secrets really. The headgear changes again. I was happy to leave at his price. The rest have too many questions now and I was happy to stay well clear.
These two may trap round 1-2 the whole way. We shall see. Hopefully England can gallop and jump them silly and put the closers under pressure. There is a chance his legs may not go quick enough to get too far ahead of Paulings but we should get a good run for our money back at this distance.
Golden Investment – 1 point win – 9/2 (BV/Bet365/BetF) 2nd 9/4
…could be just that with any luck. 9/2 looks fair here given this is a weak enough race for this unexposed sort. PACE is the way in again here as he is the only one who ever really likes to get on with it. The fact that Hughes is up must be a sign (and also may be worth noting where Kennedy is,assume Bangor but yet to look) It could be that they have their doubts but he stays well and will give it a good go from the front here. If he gets an easy lead as expected, we could be in business. He has yet to do it over fences but ran ok LTO. He was keen that day and maybe did too much. As such I thought it of interest that he gets the hood here, and the tongue tie- so he is doing something differently. If he leads and it is clear he is settled, going the pace Hughes wants, we should have some fun. 9/2 looks good to my eyes. Lone front runners are dangerous around here and McCain is hitting some form again.
A front running double maybe (that could be asking for too much, but hopefully one can do the business and both give us something to cheer over the last couple)
Of the rest…well Proud Gamble owes me nothing and for the second run in a row is a TTP pick. He could win. 11/4 may be fair. But that was a shocker of a race the last day and this is a tad deeper maybe- well, there was no horse from memory with an unexposed profile like McCains. He is also a hold up horse and is a hostage to fortune if the leader is given too much rope. The capper may just be getting to him now. If the selections falters, he probably picks up the pieces. Formidableopponent’s form ties in with Proud Gamble and they will be close together again. I suppose Dream Flyer is also interesting but he is 10, lightly raced, and has had quite a time off. He is now with Dalgleish though who has a fine record in NH races. Maybe he could go close also, his chase form is ok. WON (no reverse FC this time,damn!) Him and McCains probably look the most interesting. I will take the pace angle though.
That will be all for tips.
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST
2.30 Muss- Moscow Calling 2nd 14/1
1.15 Bang – Cafe De Paris (11/1< best) UP
That will be all for Tuesday.