Firstly thank you all for your comments, much appreciated. I know the blog is valued etc but it is nice to read such things every now and then! 🙂 The reader whose original email sparked the exchange did email to apologise for mildly blowing a fuse. He has been reading for a very long time and such comments are a timely reminder that while the tips etc are free, and the advice is just that, real people bet with real money and as such certain reactions, in the spare of the moment, can be understandable. (i am also one of those real people – losing 80 odd points at £20 a pop from the high has been just great!) He was polite at least. I mean the tips have been on a shocking losing run, no getting away from that. But, it will turn around at some point and I will find 8/1, 16/1, 33/1 winners again at some point- and they do wipe out losses rather quickly.
With all that in mind have found an old article I wrote for my monthly Betting Insiders Club article, back in 2015. It dealt with my approach to 3m+ handicap chases and you may find it an interesting read. You can read that HERE>>>
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I will be travelling back north on Thursday afternoon and Friday’s post will be up later than usual/maybe Friday morning. I am off to Haydock races for the day- courtesy of the free tickets John Hunt gave me after my last visit on Betfair Chase day where I tried the ‘commentary challenge’. I thought I was ok and tried to make it entertaining. You can watch/listed to that effort HERE>>> if you missed it the first time!
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TIPS
none. There are two ok chases,esp one at Donny, but I will continue to give the head a rest/clear out.
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JUMPS ANGLES
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – Live Test
Hurdle
2.40 Donc- Ten Sixty
December Trainers
2.40 – Ten Sixty / Ami Desbois
3.00 South – Bold (14/1<)
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Southwell Sires – (test/track/use as you please) (from research post few weeks back)
12.45 – Catharina
3.00 – Bold / King Crimson
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As I write I have had a fair go at Ami Desbois above at 4s, with a bit less on Ten Sixty as a saver. Both are TTP picks, both ‘ratings pointers’ and Ami is top rated HRB/Geegeez Speed- hopefully a good sign. Only other to tick those boxes so far was Proud Gamble who bolted up at Muss. Hopefully one can go in. I would have though, given his form, Ami may be well punted, but time will tell.
That will be all for this post.
Josh
19 Responses
I’m on ami as well josh at 4/1 a method I’m using as flagged it up along with a couple of other ones kalane 2.05 and black Ivory 1.05 Kelso antony
yes on at 4/1 on Ami D and 5/1 Raise a Spark. not heard anything else yet.
Paddy Watch
No bets tomorrow,Paddy makes a journey for a single ride for Benjamin Artley,has had a few winners for said trainer but they were bumpers,this is a novice hurdle 12.00 Largy Bull,could be a winner or wasted Diesel
Im Still Waiting wont be winning any glittering silverware for the Rooney clan,maybe a handicap
later on
My other selections were rather pathetic
I backed Awesome Rosie 3.40 Donc lto,washeavily punted in from 8/1-7/2,ran ok but no cigar
The 13/2 Bet365 migh tempt me again
Read most of the comments,I think what Josh has had is a correction,just like when you have a great monday and it goes down hill for the rest of the weekor vice versa,you couldn’t pick your nose all week and then you have a belter on Sunday,have to look at things on the whole.
There is just one thing thats important-
If you start the year with 100 and end the year with 100 you are in an elite group,the 2% that dont lose on the horses
Most on here are race enthuasists,realistic in the fact that they are not in it to get rich,2,5.10,20 stakes on the whole,if the hobby buys a meal out a new pair of shoes,whatever,they have a an enjoyable pastime that costs them nothing
The David taking on the Goliath and sometimes landing a blow
When Paddy or Dickie jumps the last and you shout them home,and your foresight has been vindicated
I saw a system for Paddy B, when riding hurdlers and bumpers for Fergal O’Brien. Worth a watch maybe?
See you at Haydock, Josh !
Say hi if you see me! I will loiter around paddock track side most of time pre race. Prob have my green barbour and a bobble hat on haha. Met three readers at Aintree will be pleased to add to that! See you there.
Hi Josh, just read through the last couple of days comments and would reiterate most of your loyal followers advice. keep on keeping on.
One piece of discipline that I have managed to absorb in my own specialist area of turf 2yo maidens is that if I am tempted to back three in a race, then I don’t know, so best leave alone. This scenario often appears in a race with a decent field and a big trainer hot favourite. Fine if you have one you really fancy to take on the hotpot with but if you find yourself thinking ‘I can’t leave that one out’ you are better off leaving them all out.
I was on Mountainous last year courtesy of you but figured that with 4 selections this year your courage outweighed your convictions.
Hugh
Cheers Hugh. Yep I think I was desperate for a nice price winner and the stats/trends led to a focussed shortlist. 5 points was stupid. And I know my head/heart said Native River would probably do that. We live and learn. Some back to basics needed. That discipline point very timely.
I Think everyone has said it all josh.You have a fine take on horse racing,(the best i’ve come accross).I Love this blog and you have a fine bunch of contributors.Here’s to a successful 2017.
Hi Josh / All
Reading through the comments shows the majority understand that this sport is all about the long game and results will hit peaks and troughs, I think a rare few are concerned about consistency of results and when they see PU, UP, BOT (Back of TV) this has what has sparked dialogue, but really the only consistency has to be in the selection process. The Welsh National work done by Josh highlighted the best value / only alternatives based on trends / stats i:e statistical analysis and on paper like any big race throughout the season these were the 4 to concentrate on. On this occasion they didn’t perform and the Fav won which they do now and again 🙂 but this is ok as we know over a season using this method of statistical analysis will serve us well….The only difference for me (as others have mentioned) is the staking I would have likely split the 1 or 2 points between the 4 as a Dutch bet and as Josh has already intimated lesson learnt…Horse racing has a crazy amount of variables and what looks good on paper can make us all look like fools on any given race which is why the long game and a disciplined staking plan is the only way…I also just want to highlight some odds ranges with winning / losing runs, Josh as we know tends to operate usually at 8.0 and upwards so if we look at at all horses with odds of 8.0………….
Races – 652551, winners 6829, win 10.47% SR
Longest winning sequence 4
Longest losing sequence 78
losing sequences of 50 or more has happened 26 times
What would you think Josh’s longest losing sequence is from 8.0 or above? Certainly nowhere near 50 I would be surprised if it were more than 15
Even if we looked at odds of 6.0
Races 51347, wins 7464, 14.54% win SR
Longest winning sequence 5
Longest losing sequence 57
Losing sequences of 40 or more has happened 11 times
The above shows how difficult it can be and backing blindly on any 5/1 or 7/1 horse over and over would lead to long losing runs and 20/1 well perish the thought…….On to tomorrow and a horse that has caused me pain re-surfaces again…
3.00 Southwell – Crosse Fire 9.2
Well after making a schoolboy error last week and backing this fellow over 6F when i thought it was 5F 🙁 I have treble checked and he is definitely over 5F tomorrow. Basically this is his bag all 5 wins have come over C & D he is drawn well been dropped another 3lbs from what was already a great handicap mark and this is down to his starting, last twice has dwelt badly in the stalls and this is an obvious concern so I will be approaching the race differently, I will place an order on Betfair at 40.0 with the “Keep” option for 1/4 of a point if he dwells again should be matched and I will take a small risk that he can make up the lost ground off this handicap mark, I will also be beside my laptop with an order ready at 1/2 pt less than SP and if he breaks normally will place a 2pt win bet or leave bet if he doesn’t, If he does break on terms than I expect a big run he looks in good nick drawn ok in 6 and won the race last year under this jockey…….Good luck everyone with your selections
Cheers
Steve
Careful Steve. I’ve seen a race preview that says the yard has a virus and the trainer is running them through it. Second – or third – hand, obviously, but worrying nonetheless.
Paul
Scott Dixon said
Crosse Fire
Thu 29th Dec 2016
Has started very slowly the last two runs and that is obvioulsy concerning. We are trying him in a blind and a stalls rug this time to see if that helps. If he jumps on terms he has a chance but it remains a big ‘if’ and others more reliable options.
3 stars
King Crimson 300 has a good draw from which to front run, in contrast to his last run here, so might be an ‘in running’ play.
looking at crosse fire 3.00 southwell race as been run 3 times and dixon has won it twice and finished 3rd with his other runner, obviously targets the race!
No time for write ups but I am on Scottswell (12:30) at Kelso and Ami Debois (14:40), Beeves (15:10) and Awesome Rosie (15:40) at Doncaster. Good luck if you follow.
Morning. Since 2015 Kenneth slack and ,Henry Brooke are 3 from 4 at Kelso team up with Beeno. 1-05.
Ami Desbois now a non-runner, taken out 1.50pm
just would like to know how on earth anybody could put up Catharina as a possible punt.
Things aint looking good
Hi Keith..Did you read the wording around that horse? Or read the research piece? You can do so here.. http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/12/13/southwell-all-weather-usa-breds/
I did miss off the odds range guide and he didnt ‘qualify’ against that. That is the research. Those are the stats. It is info. To use as you please. Untested in live play. I haven’t opened the racing post and gone… ohhh yes on paper that looks to have a cracking chance .
If you are not aware of/never understand the reasoning behind any horse put up on this blog please do ask. The research will be on here somewhere/or my reasoning with a tip. Those jumps angles are systems,trainer based,nothing to do with horses form etc .
Josh