TTP Jumps Notes: 30/12/16 (complete)

qualifiers + ratings+notes

PLEASE NOTE:

  1. If you are new and have not read my welcome note intro it may be worth a couple of minutes of your time, especially if the content of these daily posts is confusing and you are still unsure how selections are derived. You can read that HERE>>>
  2. The ‘Notes’ – the notes that I occasionally add below a horse are there for you to use as you see fit. I will try and add some objective stats – such as a trainers recent form, or their record with a certain type of horse- ie returning after a break, making a quick return, with LTO winners, making handicap debut etc. Anything I can get my hands on to add to their case. After that they are my subjective views- the aim I suppose being to try and find a reason why you may rule out a horse and not just ‘trust the stats’. Now in part this was the main driver for now using the ‘ratings pointers’ as this takes subjective judgement out of it and provides a more sophisticated shortlist/focus point. However, those views are there to highlight anything that I personally find of interesting as to their recent form, anything they may be doing differently from their last run, or whether they are still unexposed and could still be open to improvement. You can use those as you see fit, including just ignoring them entirely.

 

Onto the horses…

HAYDOCK 

2.10

Burtons Well (micro -class)

2.40

Doctor Harper (all hncps+hncp chase+micro..TJC)

3.40

Back to Bracka (micro – soft)

 

TAUNTON

1.00

Norse Light (micro – age) UP

NOTE: trainer 0/21,4p last 30 days. Tongue tie added having been well beaten LTO back over hurdles. Best form looks to have been when soft/heavy. Seems to have a few questions to answer and market may guide. Some bits and pieces of form,if they were repeated,may put him thereabouts but looks as though leap of faith needed at the moment.

 

1.30

Yur Next (all hncps+ micro class) 30 2nd

Graphical (all hncps + micro class) 30 UP

NOTE Both Farrelly. Yur Next won for the stats/ratings LTO and 7/2 seems fair/a tad big to my eye to go and do it again. She is the only horse in here that has no questions to answer from what I can see. She will race prominently and we should get a run for our money again. The handicapper may now have got her but that is guessing really. We will know more after this race but I would be disappointed if she wasn’t thereabouts, provided the race hasn’t come too soon. Graphical has yet to do anything in his career really and the market may guide returning after a break. Needs to massive step up on recent form but only 6th career start.

 

3.30

Silver Commander (hncp chase) 2nd

NOTE: Hobbs 2/31,9p last 14 days. Horse is lightly raced for his age and clearly had his problems. Hard to rule out I suppose but was ‘fat’ to my eye before his last run, via the tv pictures, and will come on for it. Had another 59 days off since though and some questions. Wouldn’t surprise me if took 1/2 more runs to get up to full sharpness but we shall see.

 

4.00

Magnus Romeo (all hncps + micro class)

NOTE: appears to be some money around for this one which is interesting. Farrelly again. Hopes seem to rest on the first time blinkers- if they work, and he were able to build on those two Exeter placed efforts, you could see him being in the mix. Only his third handicap hurdle. Certainly not a shock winner to my eye of what is a moderate handicap hurdle.

Silver Streak (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 14 WON 9/2>2/1 (2.7/1- declared price- after 40p R4) 

NOTE: Yard going well, 5/26,14p last 14 days. The form of his last hurdle run, for last trainer, has been working out well enough with two horses that were behind him that day winning 2 between them since. Williams 5/25,8 places with those new to his yard having first start for him having been with another trainer. He can ready them after a break if needed also, so fitness should not be a concern IF he wants him fit here. Market should guide with this type you would think. ‘could be anything’ in handicap hurdles and will hopefully have loads in hand!

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RATINGS POINTERS

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated 

1.30 T – Yur Next30 2nd

Top 3 

4.00 T – Silver Streak14 WON 9/2>2/1> (2.7/1 after R4) 

 

Geegeez Speed 

Top Rated 

4.00 T – Silver Streak14 WON 9/2>2/1> (2.7/1 after R4) 

 Top 3 

1.30 T – Yur Next30 2nd

 

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That will be all for today. Good luck with however you play them. Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

3 Responses

  1. Paddy Watch

    Busy day for Paddy tomorrow at Haydock Park

    2.10 Mystifiable 1PT WIN 13/2 bET365
    2.40 Viva Steve 1pt win 5/1 Bet365
    3.10 Global Stage 1pt win 5/1 Bet365
    3.40 Druids Folly 1/2pt win 10/3 Bet365

    Josh,have a great day out,we could use some help putting some wind into Paddys Sails,every cheer counts

    1. haha hopefully, just updating some results for ‘the ratings pointers’ now- typically they took a dip in recent days! And the 40p R4 somewhat annoying as nothing stopping him – maybe connections of the other market leader who was withdrawn got wind of what they were up against! Yur Next bumped into one as well, which was danger,had the rest beat and looked winner until near end. Onwards.

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