FREE DAILY POST: 27/12/16 (COMPLETE)

Welsh National Tips…

Well that was a sh*t day really. The King George was a great watch – a new star is born, and we need one of those every few years. Bar that, I had a shocker. TTP ratings had their first poor day (rather typical given the timing!) and I picked 3 more donkeys to tip you – they may all still be running. I hate when I have nothing to cheer jumping the last few fences. I wasn’t near to solving those puzzles. Poor all round, again.

We move on, swiftly (at least Gerry highlighted a 40/1 winner- wallop!- well done if you had a nibble on him) (oh and I missed Nick highlighting a 10/1+ winner also, superb)

***

TIPS

2.40 Chepstow

CAROLE’S DESTRIER – 2 point win – 8/1 (general)

MILANSBAR – 1 point EW – 25/1 (PP, 5 places) 20/1 (general, 5 places about,may be 25s general in morning,may not)

OneNightInViena – 1/2 point win – 10/1 (PP/Coral/BF) 9/1 (coral)

Firebird Flyer – 1/2 point win – 16/1 (general)

 

A 5 point, go hard or go home, race for me here. Maybe part inspired by the nice bottle of Malbec that is sat on my desk and that is slowly disappearing. Maybe if one of these goes in it we can say it is the missing ingredient that has been lacking! 🙂

In all seriousness I have simply trusted the stats/trends and if the 19 year stats get broken here then so be it, another big race where I was not finding the winner.

So, why these 4 … well, the first three, who tick every box…

  • Top 6 LTO (0/41,4p were 7th or worse but completed, 0/42,2p fell or PU)
  • 9 or younger (1/80 10+, Mountainous last year,lightly raced,prev winner. None of older brigade jump out at me this year) 
  • 11-6 or less on back (0/38,7p 11-7 or more) 
  • Ran 16-60 days ago (0/57,3p outside this) 
  • 0-3 handicap chase wins (0/48,6p outside this) (Firebird falls down on this one) 

A strict interpretation of those stats leaves three…

Carole’s Destrier / Milansbar / OneNightInViena…

Carole’s Destrier…ran a cracker LTO in what looked a clear prep LTO for this thorough stayer who stays every yard of this trip at Sandown and should handle it well here. It was a very good run the last day, esp coming from further back. I assume NF has commitments at Kempton and am a tad surprised he isn’t on him here- I wasn’t sure if that was a sign or not but in terms of long distance chases/cool head under pressure, the trainer has gone for a pretty good replacement. There isn’t much not to like about this one given the stats and his actual profile. Conditions look idea and we ‘should’ get a run for our money from him. I could have gone safety first, 1 pt EW, but i thought sod it, let’s be bold.

Milansbar- more speculative but he stays well and 3 out at Uttoxeter back end last year he was leading before tiring from there on in, that was over 33.5f and this trip may just suit more. He should be plodding on and there could be a lot more to come this year given he was only a novice last season. He races up in the van also – well his legs wont be quick enough to match Native River but hopefully he can hold a position in the front third. He should stay on through the line here and with 5 places, or 4 at worse, fingers crossed he hits the frame at worst. He could win. Again, given his price, and the stats, I couldn’t leave him alone. He also ran at Chepstow LTO and that little micro angle for this race may be worth following in years to come (+76 points last 19 years from the 49 or so to have run at Chepstow LTO)

OneNightInViena- more speculative I think but he is on the shortlist and is unexposed. I think he is a bit too inexperienced but he is 10s and it would be sickening to watch him win with no money on, given he is on a stats shortlist of 3 and is double figures in places. May not stay. May hate the big field. May not jump well enough. All possibles/unknowns.

Firebird Flyer…well he falls down on the hncp chase wins stat but in the end I thought- he stays, he likes the CD having come 2nd in this last year, and he had a decent enough pre LTO/comes here in form. Plenty in here don’t seem to be in great form and have that and/or fitness questions/age questions also. Given he is 16s I thought he was worth 1/2 a point.

So, those 4 will do. I would bite your hand off for a Carole’s win and a Milansbar plodding on 4th. That is possible. Obviously Milansbar winning would be a great end to the year, but that former scenario is more likely.

Of course it may all be irrelevant. Native River may prove to be a ‘if there was no Thistlecrack/or the gold cup was a muddy slog fest’ gold cup horse, and if so he ‘could’ be the weight carrying stats breaker in this race. But, he had a hard race LTO, he has a big weight historically and he is 3/1,11/4. He has to be taken on. He may well grind to victory here and he would get my applause as that would be some achievement. He will pop away on the front end and it will just be a case of when they turn for home whether the weight takes its toll. If if doesn’t hopefully Milansbar places for a small profit on the race! (he is nailed on for 6th, we all know that! 🙂 )

Right, that will do. Clearly something else may win. You have seen the stats. That is what I have followed. So, this year, I wasn’t going to find them. As it happens, not much else jumps out at me even if I did ignore all the stats. I suppose Vicente would be the one other one, given his Ayr win. But he wasn’t running that well, and was going backwards when falling LTO. I would have preferred a staying on run from the back in that race to have more confidence here.

 

***

That will do for ‘tips’ today.

***

JUMPS ANGLES

T George Chasers

3.30 Kemp – Double Shuffle

 

K Lee Chasers (12/1< guide)

2.40 Chep – Mountainous / Bishops Road

3.15 Chep – Grey Gold (quals against the two angles, x2)

 

December Trainer Pointers

1.30 Weth – Money Maid

2.40 Chep – Emperors Choice / Onenightinviena

3.15 Chep- Drumlee Sunset

 

***

Good luck with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. Paddy Watch

    A quick message to the person who had 20 ew on Royal Vacation,well done,treat yourself/family to something nice,and most importatntly remember that it was a one off and very unlikely re-occur,i was over the moon with the prospect of getting a placed 40/1,when the lady intervened,i will try not to curse too much next time she intervenes against me

    Moving onto tomorrow

    12.20 Chepstow The Worlds End 1/2 pt e/w 10/ bet365
    1.25 Chepstow Billy No Name 1/2pt e/w 14/1 BV
    2.40 Chepstow Theatre Guide 1/2 pt e/w 20/1 BV
    3.50 Chepstow Aye Aye Charlie 1/2 pt win 9/2 Bet365

    I just dont think Theatre Guide has the class to compete at this level,but then again i thought Royal Vacation was out of his depth,anyway keep stakes to the minimum,it is silly season

    All The Best Gerry

  2. Unioniste and Bishops Road for me. Not taking too much account for the weight trend given the compressed nature of the race. More interested in youngish horses who’ve been targeted at the race. Unioniste has been well raced, but has that touch of class and has dropped down to a winning mark. Bishops Road for connections who clearly know how to win the race, and shaped well LTO with the form franked today. Will be fine on the ground despite best form on softer.

  3. HI Gerry not sure if you missed this out but thought i’d add Chepstow – 12:50 Tempestatrfloresco to the paddy watch list.

    Pablo!

    1. No worries, had a quick look at the LTO race at chepstow where he came 2nd … he ran really well .. Made a slight error at the last hurdle and that kinda cost him, wouldnt take anytin away from the winner right enough he fought really hard … I think he should have won it .. But lets hope he’s bang on thrre tomorrow

      Pablo!

  4. Yes i did watch that race Pablo,a repeat of that should get him in contention,also Paddy has better record on Tizzards Chasers

    1. Yeah ure right Gerry, while i was looking around i bumped into 2more horses who i feel has a chance …

      1.25 Chepstow Court King 9/1 e/w (TJ OBrien) qualifiers won LTO and same distance/racing venue

      2:40 Emperior’s Choice @ 20/1 (Jamie Bargary) . cudnt resist an e/w stab on this also as Miss V Williams has been doing well of recent with hos big priced horses and this horse has won on this same venue with similar distance.

      Lets hope ee can all somehow smile tomorrow with some few winners / place spots.

      Goodluck everyone

      Pablo!

  5. Josh tells it how it is. Yesterday was one of the very few occasions when things didn’t pan out. But you won’t find a better service, personally and professionally, anywhere. Josh does all the thinking for you and then you can make up your own mind. A brilliant service which will pick up today, I’m sure.

    1. Thanks Michael, very kind. Any approach can look awful with a one day snap shot and it could well have been better all round – but the longer term view on most things looks better. The day you dont get blunt realism in these parts will be the day I stop.
      Josh

  6. Just a quick note on Simon Dow at wolverhampton,was lucky to bag a 16/1 yesterday on forcefull appeal,yard flying and has superb record there 2-2 yesterday

    1.05 Diamond Charlie 6/1

    4pm Trust The Man 7/1

    Sods Law when highlighted they bomb

    1. Cheers Gerry – oh that’s ironic isn’t it. On the busiest jumps racing day of the year I should have simply opened my own AW stats pack, looked at Dow’s Wolvs handicap record, and backed both of his haha. My heart sank a bit when I saw FA winning at 16s- I didn’t even look at the card.

      Josh

  7. My picking list for the Welsh National is:-

    Carole’s Destrier,
    Onenightinvienna
    Milansbar
    Firebird Flier
    Royale Knight.

    Still on a bum run of bets…gotta change soon. BOL all.

  8. Hi Josh,
    I end up with Carole’s Destrier and Milansbar too using my view on stats which obviously have similarities, so I think we’ve nailed it mate! I’m surprised you haven’t gone for a 10 point reverse forecast.

    The other race I have stats for is the 3:30 at Kempton which throws up More Bucks & Out Sam. It didn’t find the winner last year but most other years it has, so probably one I need to put some more work into.

    Hopefully I’m going to Cheltenham New Year’s day, never been before. My tip for that day if one has been celebrating would be to leave the wallet at home!

    Good luck today!

    Chris

    1. Hi Chris,

      Yep I think we have that nailed. I needed something to make me smile and your 10 point reverse forecast line did just that.
      Good luck today,
      Josh

  9. Morning all,

    Decent enough day with Bastien running out an easy 14/1 winner before Itoldyou getting done at the last fence after looking a likely winner and Hartside finishing like a rocket when possibly a little far back both returning e/w profits. Hopefully some of you were on.

    Moving on to today I really like the look of Pobbles Bay in the 12:50 at Chepstow. The form of his emphatic 16 length victory has been franked several times over. Poker School has won comfortably twice since includig a hot looking novice chase yesterday. 3rd, 6th and 2 horses which didnt even finish have also followed up (form of the race reads 13 runners, 7 winners and 10 places). I dont think the 14lbs rise will be enough to stop him.

    With regards to the Welsh National I agree that Carole’s Destrier does look like an absolutely cracking e/w bet. I think Josh has laid out the reasons perfectly above.

    Moving on to Ireland (back at your own peril) I have to have a small e/w bet on Otago Trail in the 15:00 at Leopardstown. For the 2nd year running the Rehersal Chase which he won is looking like a strong race with Definitely Red coming out a relatively easy winner of the Roland Merrick. He has only been put up 4lbs for his win and I feel there is more to come.

    1. Yep well done Nick, you had a much better day than me! Sadly I didn’t back any of those but hope some others may have done. Good luck today.

  10. Hopefully the winner of the Welsh National is found in that set of sub stats Josh. I too have backed the 4 based on these solid stats.
    One stat I have read elsewhere however is that no runner from that years Hennessy has won the Welsh National since 1987. At the prices I can stomach Caroles Destrier bombing if the turnaround is too soon and so also Native River has that massive stat to overcome. Not sure how many runners this involves exactly but a bit of tweaking on HRB looks like 0,28 (5places) since 06.
    Will be a massive training performance by Tizzard if he wins.

    At Limerick Bothair Clei in 13.35 looks to have been laid out for the race. Was given a nothing ride last time out beaten 30 lengths by Sea Scorpion. At the prices could be worth chancing an ew bet given its December xmas form at the course the last two years finishing 3rd in a 2m5 handicap hurdle and winning a 2m5 handicap chase at the venue over xmas the last two years. Trainer obviously targets the horse at this time of the year.

    Donegal Tuesday also could be worth chancing in this race for a trainer who’s 2/4 in handicap hurdles at the track last 2 years and also had a 14/1 2nd splitting a Mullins and Elliot nag yesterday at the course. Its second to last run when held in 4th before unseating at the last behind Death Duty reads well in the context of this race and off a mark of 91 looks potentially laid out for this race. Won a PTP on soft so hopefully will get the trip on heavy ground.

    GL all

  11. Firstly…what about that Thistlecrack? If it stays sound and the ground is ok looks unbeatable!

    It will be good to see Altior jump well today. Not much to beat but would be good to see it go around smoothly.

    The Moore horses are off at present and so I cannot take SDG to beat Special Tiara. I would stay away from Moore runners until further notice.

    I cannot see Native River winning with that weight. I think Firebird Flyer must go well each way? The money for Carole’s Destrier makes sense.

    I had a good day yesterday apart from Might Bite going at the last! I though Jacob panicked a bit for no real reason?

    1. Good luck Martin…
      Jacob..well after I had a go at him with his rides on Fox Appeal, he then seemed to find some confidence and started riding fences well again- and then he does that. I have no idea what he was doing. He was scrappy over the second last, Jacob looked around I thought, and saw no dangers- only in front of him. Now, I can see why he tapped him to make him concentrate, but he appeared to get right after him, and sped up approaching the last- at that speed he then threw him at the fence- which for a novice always dangerous. Tricky as he did at the last what I like seeing Brennan do, but I just think he approached the fence too quickly – always easy after the event but he could have done a Scu on T and just steadied him over the last – but then that ‘slow them down’ app can sometimes lead to errors also. A shame. That’s racing. Would be interested to head what Jacob himself would do diff next time- that was the first fence he really threw him at as well, to my eye. Horse just failed to respond/they were out of sync with each other. At least he got up to fight another day.

    2. I think ive said on this excellent site before.The only people that should worry about weight are those on diets. Putting weight on class horses doesnt make the others go faster. Native River was well handicapped and won accordingly.
      Thistlecrack won very well yesterday jumping well and travelling with zest throughout. However,what are we to make of the form. Cue Card ran for most of the race with his head looking up to the clouds. He jumped ordinarily and only beat ‘Conti and Tea For Two by a short head and a head. In the Betfair Cue Card beat Conti by 42 lengths. Now if you believe Conti has improved 3 stone then you need to see a man in a white coat. No for me Cue Card ran no sort of race in comparison to his best form. He throws these bad ones in now and again and i just feel he needs all the help he can get now hes approaching eleven. He has not a prayer of staying the gold cup trip and will go for the Ryanair. Soft ground is needed for him.
      Thistlecrack is as low as 4/5 for the gold cup. Anybody who believes that is value get behind those who think ‘Conti has improved three stone in the queue to see the man in the white coat. 3miles 2 1/2f at Cheltenham with a bigger field is far removed from a sharp 3mile round Kempton. Of course Thistlecrack can win but he will be facing true stayers on an undulating track. Horses like Native River,Coneygree and a big outsider Minella Rocco will make sure he has to stay. Thats without the Irish contingent of Djakadam,Valseur Lido and last years winner Don Cossack. Theres also a dark horse from the Tizzard stable who they rate highly and will be trying him at the highest level soon. Only two novices have won the gold cup in the last forty years. Can Thistlecrack make it three? Possibly,but do i want to take less than 3/1. No Way. Happy New Year to all the excellent people on here.

  12. A brilliant weight carrying performance by the winner, very impressive indeed. But I must add josh that those selections were appaling,I’m your biggest fan but we need a change of luck. I’m aware the tips are free, and they should be the way they’re running. It’s very dissapointing and quite frankly poor!!I’ll be the first to congratulate you on a good winner, and I’m loathe to complain about a free service but I’m sure you’re as dissapointed as the rest of us. Hopefully things will improve, and I’m sure you’re doing your upmost,but like football it’s judged on results. And lately they’ve been awful.

    1. Some pretty odd comments there Michael. If you’re loathe to complain about a free service, why complain about a free service? If you’re Josh’s “biggest fan” and acknowledge that we need “a change of luck” then how can you go on to say that the selections are “appalling”, “very disappointing and quite frankly poor”?

      Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

  13. Sorry Neil, what I meant to say was that the selections are all running like pegasus and everything in the garden is rosy. Do you understand that?

    1. Harsh comments Michael. If you don’t like the tips then stop visiting the website. Of course you could have a go yourself – let’s see how good you are? Put 10 tips up in the next 3 weeks and we’ll see how you do. If you want to talk the talk then you should walk the walk.

    2. I think if Josh was on here spouting about how wonderful the tips are, when they’ve actually been performing poorly, then you might have grounds to throw a few stones. Given that he’s his own harshest critic, I just don’t see what you hope to achieve.

      1. I hope to stop the criticism. Josh will write about his own performance (good or bad). Doesn’t need you to put the boot in.

  14. Afternoon,

    I for one picked Caroles Destrier and Firebird Flyer, if your going to back horses on a whim and a prayer then your in the wrong place, none of us are perfect and when the good times roll everyone is there to pat you on the back. Team Tizzard are in unstoppable form at present and again Josh did say that at the end of his piece that if Native River did win it would be a great victory and it was!! Sometimes, you have to doff your cap and say that was some performance!
    I for one, was prepared to take him on, isn`t that what this game is all about? opinions of whose horse is going to win, certainly if a dog gets fed a bone , the owner doesn`t want to know how it tasted.
    You take it or leave it as far as I`m concerned it`s all advice at the end of the day.

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