Urh. Well, that was typical I suppose. Bar watching The King George that was a sh*t punting day for me. Quite awful. The tips were crap, and the ‘ratings pointers’ had their first bad day since that experiment started. (obvious after you launch an Xmas offer I suppose!) That may have been a natural corrections I suspect and a reminder from the punting gods that we haven’t found the magic money tree yet- albeit over time a very profitable one with any luck. We are at the beginning of that particular journey.
Whatever way you slice and dice those stats it was just poor day. But, it happens, and the place % give some comfort. I think, on my maths… (all ‘4’ winners 11/4 I think, well that’s what I got the day before)
ALL ratings quals (multiple times)
33 bets / 4 wins /13 win|p / -18 points
Just Those that qualified twice (bold) (backing twice)
16 bets / 2 wins / 7 w|p / -8.5 points
All ratings horses, just once (not backing twice if on both ratings)
22 bets / 3 wins / 9 w|p / -10.75 points
Top Rated (x1)
7 bets / 0 wins / 3 places / -7.
There were at least three decent priced placed horses, 16/1, 12/1 and 25/1 for any EW players and if you backed those hopefully it cushioned the blow.
The non-ratings horses were a collective 0/20 I believe and proved again that in general the ratings are the place to focus based on recent evidence, while trying to nab the odd big priced winner that isn’t highlighted in the ratings.
I won’t dwell on those anymore. It was only one day and a unique one off at that. (albeit not for the 4 people who signed up and left inside one day, I hope they give their next service more of a chance, but i’m afraid if you don’t use free trials / money back offers to their full- to prod,test,trial etc you will sail on passed plenty of decent products. In the next 18 race days or so you should be able to make a judgement if this club is for you. No hard feelings if it isn’t, there is something out there for all punters)
We move on, with tomorrow a bit more like a ‘normal’ Saturday card (ie 3 meetings, and a few big handicaps)
1.25 – Awaywiththegreys (all hncps) 4th / Court King (all hncps) / Desert Sensation (hncp hurdle) 3rd
2.40 – Caroles Destrier (all hncps) UP / Goulanes (all hncps) UP/ Houblon Des Obeaux (hncp c) 3rd / Emperors Choice (hncp chase) UP
3.15 – Aso (hncp chase) WON 7/4 / Drumlee Sunset (micro – age) 2nd
3.50 – Potters Cross (NHF) UP
1.10 – Mystic Sky (all hncps / hncp hurdle) UP / One Big Love (all hncps) UP/ Nordic Nymph WON 3/1 (hncp hurdle)
2.55 – Drum Cliff (all hncps) 2nd / A Boy Names Suzi UP (all hncps + hncp hurdle)
3.30 – Opening Batsman (all hncps) UP / Howlongisafoot (hncp chase) UP / Double Shuffle (micro – class) WON 9/1 / More Bucks (micro- going IF GOOD- likely) UP
3.05 – Arthurs Oak (micro going IF HEAVY – unlikely)
3.35 – Chasma (all hncps + hncp hurdle) UP / Lilys Legend (all hncps) UP / Tuffatthetop UP(all hncps)
3.15 Chep – Aso WON 7/4
3.50 Chep- Potters Story – UP
3.30 Kemp – More Bucks 14,30 (see ‘trainer form’ note below) UP
1.25 Chep – Desert Sensation 3rd 14,30 / Rolling Dylan 2nd
1.10 Kemp – Nordic Nymph 14,30 WON 3/1
3.30 Kemp – Double Shuffle 14,30 WON 9/1
3.05 Weth – Arthurs Oak (unlikely to qualify officially)
3.35 Weth – Chasma 14 UP / Lily’s Legend 14 UP
1.25 Chep – Rolling Dylan 2nd
335 Weth – Chasma 14 UP
2.55 Kemp – Drum Cliff 2nd
1.10 Kemp- Nordic Nymph 14,30 WON 3/1
3.30 Kemp- Opening Batsman UP / More Bucks 14,30 UP
3.35 Weth – Lillys Legend 14 UP
2.55 Kemp – A Boy Named Suzi UP
Following on from Gary’s comment below I had been pondering what to do on this front. Indeed I don’t believe there is anything on this page,inc ratings, which takes account of current ‘trainer form’. On ‘normal/’non holiday’ days I would look to add some ‘notes’ on trainer form for each runner,as some sort of guide. But there is an easier/less time consuming option…
I use the racecards in GEEGEEZ GOLD and they have ‘trainer form’ pointers. (used for speed ratings also)
A 14 by a trainer’s name indicates in the last 14 days they have had 5+ runners with either a 20% win strike rate, OR a 51%+ place (inc wins) strike rate.
A 30 by a trainer’s name indicates in the last 30 days they have had 10+ runners with either a 20% win strike rate, OR a 51%+ place (inc wins) strike rate.
I will focus on the ratings for now and will add such ’14’ or ’30’ next to the horses name. You may find that useful, you may not. Trainer form is a funny thing and if I like the price of a horse I wouldn’t necessarily let it put me off- maybe more to be used to give you added confidence to any runner, or highlight those you may want to have a closer look at. Or ignore them. They are an added benefit and I will try and keep track of how and ‘ratings/trainer in form’ pointers get on.