Well we won’t go ‘whoopin and a boooomin’ (don’t think the Poet Laureate is in danger there!) +3 points on a race but it was pleasing to cheer home the old jumping rogue that is Fox Appeal. Dicky was at his best to steer him home/give him daylight/keep him up to his work/make him concentrate… and thankfully he had plenty in hand- he still made odd scratchy errors and wasn’t putting it all in near the end to my eye. He simply outclassed and out experienced that lot. That win has covered a few of my losses on him, but probably not all of them, and I doubt I will follow him in again. Albeit they were ideal conditions and that was a nice pot to win- maybe they will think about targeting it again next season.
FESTIVE OFFER…. (25% discount)
Just an update as,well, due to technical difficulties/a change of plan, I have decided to alter what was going to be my ‘winter season ticket’ offer to the Members Club. On Friday I was going to offer a free trial until the 14th Jan, and then a one off fee of £30 through to end of April. But, working out how to do that and getting the settings right between paypal and my membership software has proved challenging and as such I am going back to what I know! (the fixed date trial,then a one off fixed fee was causing issues)
So… for THREE DAYS ONLY… (23rd/24th/25th)… If you sign up on one of those three days you will get a 21 Day Free Trial to the Members Club and then it will be £7.50 per month after that (until end of April). You can cancel anytime of course and if you do so before the end of the trial you won’t be charged. So, that is £7.5o per month rather than £10, and works out at £30 for the Jan-April period instead of £40. And you get some bonus days at the end of December. From Boxing day onwards it will revert to £10 per month and a 14 day trial. Every little helps! 🙂
If you are interested in that, then do look out for emails/posts on Friday.
And I mean, given my new ‘ratings pointers’ are 25/72,42p = +72 points in the last 13 days, you would be mad not to give it a go,at least for the trial… 🙂
Onto some racing…
Millicent Silver – 1.5 points win – 9/2 (general) PU
Nail M – 1.5 points win – 9/1 (lad/betway) 8/1 (general) 3rd
Barton Gift…AHHHHHHHHHH. Reads write up again. AHHHHHH. One day I will have this chasing game by the b****** – ‘if they are worth backing with change from down the sofa, shouldn’t you at least consider throwing 1/2 a point at them?’ Hmm. Quite. Back up in trip (outpaced last twice, 3rd run of season, change of headgear, 1/1 with jockey…the signs were there and I half predicted a return to form) When a 28/1 winner doesn’t make you scratch your head, it is quite annoying. Clearly my ability to learn quickly is a myth at the moment – I was making those errors in February! Still, I will take what positives there are from that.
I do enjoy a 3m5f slog in the mud and we shall see if the pins have landed on the right ones. I have decided to reinvest my Fox Appeal race profits in these two as I am confident we should get a run for our money. These two do need a real slog, and given it is soft, hopefully they get in. Any more rain (none forecast, would be even better)
Millicent Silver- well NTD appears to be hitting a hot streak again and simply because she has a run under her belt I would swap the prices around with the fav- interesting that Sam gets the call up also. I know Ryan Hatch is injured but Jamie B could have been given the call. This one is still lightly raced, 2/5 chasing, is a CD winner, stays all day, jumps well, and just keeps responding for pressure. I wonder, given that CD win, if this was an early season target and that last run was to blow away the cobwebs. She was running ok that day, maybe starting to tire (albeit running style deceptive as she was starting to respond to pressure and NTDs are usually fit to a point) before being brought down. Still, that was a fair way into the race and she could come on for those efforts. She just looks likely to give her running to my eyes, and that is questionable over plenty in here. She looks solid at 9/2.
Nail M- well this old slow boat has a race like this in him for sure- I may have backed him once before, and I have always thought he could take one of these if everything dropped right. To my eye he travelled more sweatley than he has in the past and went well for a fair way, and plugged on. He would have needed that run and 3m with ‘good’ in the description would have been sharp enough. Last year, after a 500+ day break, he ran his best race on his second start. So, he should be sharper here. The trainer’s horses are also starting to run better having been ice cold for quite some time. 1/10,2p last 10 days. There are plenty of placed efforts- like that Exeter run last December over 31f, a repeat of which would put him bang there in this field. Slowly plodding on over the last two. These two may slug it out together with any luck. 9/1, 8/1 seemed a bit big to my eyes and he looked the most interesting of the bigger priced runners. Now 8, this could be his year.
Of the rest… well Krackatoa King could clearly win this, he might. First start for Kerry Lee who is starting to hit some better form, he has always shaped like a slogger and I suspect she will win a few long distance chases with him. I can see why connections would want to send a horse like this to her. I just think 5/2 is short – especially considering that this is his first start in a while and a lot of Lee’s, for whatever reason and by her own admission, have needed the run this season. Indeed, those that have had 61+ days off since start of Oct are 0/20,4p. A few in there have been big prices but at 5/2 you want no doubts. Fitness is a big doubt. It is a tough race- 3m5f in soft, top weight as well, in which to make a winning return. Credit to connections if he does it, but he can beat me at 5/2. One to keep an eye on for sure moving forwards.
I can’t have the rest for me. Beauboreen steps up in trip and it may suit but the strength of his form isn’t much to shout about for me. Gary Charm has major stamina questions- I have thought that over 3m so I can’t back him here. You never know, but he would be a surprise winner to me- doesn’t look in great form also. They are getting his mark down though… back over 20f at some point, hack up. Valleyofmilan- he has a stamina question also and is more exposed than a few in here. I think there are stronger stayers in here. He may prove me wrong, but was happy to leave. Rocky Bender is old now and looks out of form- he stays, but his recent wins have been very poor contests. He could always be last horse standing of course.
Barton Gift – he is a character who at his best would go close here- but he is so inconsistent and hard to predict these days. He looks out of form, but he has before and then bounced back. It is his third run of the season and he has another headgear change. Who knows what we will get but I can see a case for why you might rade the spare change drawer at 16s. (no spare change down my sofas now!) I am not sure what Kilcullen Flem has done to justify single figure odds but i suppose he might leave me drowning in an eggy mess. He hasn’t done anything over fences yet and went backwards the last day. Maybe he wants a trip but I want to see more before getting involved. He is unexposed over fences though, and those types can never be discounted and are never shock shock winners. But i wont be backing him today. I want proven hardy horses in this. Wellforth doesn’t look good enough for this level and has a few questions, he is 12 and seemingly out of form. He probably needs 8 others to fail to complete to have a chance of taking this.
So, that is the lot I think. Two semi confident pokes at the prices. If the fav is fit he will run a big race but worth taking on for me. Baring accidents these two should be thereabouts pitching at the end.
Pace…nos 2/7/1 can be up there and this will be run at an ok gallop. These two will track and sit midfield i suspect and given the trip/ground should be able to hold their position. Don’t worry if they start to be ridden a long way out, Twisters horse esp, as they do just keep going- maybe watch the in play price for a £1 or £2. She may go big enough at some stage before the late grind to victory. Maybe.
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
Krackatoa King UP
(well researched I think, untested really,so treat with some caution/use as starting points. Anyone who took not of the ‘trainer track combos’ may have noted Williams record at Ffos Las…alas I did notice, after his two winners, one at 10/1. Those notes in free reports/systems tab. If you do wish to follow those trainer track combos,may be best not to rely on me to highlight them, I always seem to forget!)
1.05 Bang – Rocky Bender UP
2.30 Wolvs – Dr Parkes (14/1<) UP
2.50 Chelm- Plus Night (14/1<) UP
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– LIVE TEST
2.10 Bang – Miss Mash WON 4/1 / Marvellous Monty 3rd
3.10 Bang – Drive on Locky UP
12.35 Bang – Double Treasure – UP
1.05 Bang – Gary Charm (11/1< best) UP
1.05 Bang – Kilcullen Flem UP
No More Today
May I take this opportunity to wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas.
I will not be taking any ‘days off’ as such and there will be a Boxing Day post with plenty to browse through. As and when that gets posted, who knows. But, bar Gold Cup and Grand National Day, I think the next few days are the highlight of the Jumping year. Kings George, Welsh National and plenty more besides.
With that in mind, a fun little poll. What follows isn’t a question about value, or odds etc. Simply, who do you think is the most likely winner of the King George.. all a bit of fun (I will just be watching I think, without having a bet…famous last words…well, you won’t need to bet in it to enjoy it)