Ah well for a drab poor quality Monday that wasn’t too bad with the Bonus Trainer Track Profiles ‘ratings shortlist’ producing two good winners and just over +6 points on the day. (as always you can take a 7 day free trial HERE>>> and see if my Members content is for you or not)
Using the ratings to help shortlist/give more confidence has had a good start: In the 4 days since I started doing that the combined Top 3 HorseRaceBase ratings and Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings are: 34 bets / 6 wins / 17 wins or places / +15.75 points. Geegeez Top rated is showing minor early promise… 2/6,2p, +15 points. We shall see if those stats are a fluke or something to build on. It has been notable how consistent they have been, with 50% winning or running in the top 3, a few of those placed horses going close. Anyway, enough of that…
So Fine – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/lad/betway) 6/1 (general) PU – went amiss sadly when leading,jumping went badly left at one fence and PU,as if feeling something- was in a nice enough rhythm)
Butlergrove King – 1/2 point win – 14/1 (WH) 12/1 (general) UP (a ‘another day ride,given held up-some promise, he will make all around Ludlow one day!)
The less said about the winner the better there. I will keep my thoughts to myself. Smacks head on table as I read that write up again. I think the definition of value punting is backing a horse that you think may out-run their odds etc. Next time.
So Fine… I think he is worth chancing at these odds because of marked drop in handicap mark (4 runs ago he was racing off OR129 over fences,115 here) and the drop in class. In any code this is the weakest race he has lined up in arguably since his C4 novice chase days in 2012. He clearly isn’t getting any younger but this is only his 8th start over fences, his win coming in a beginners chase around Kempton. The Newbury and Ascot chase runs last season showed some promise, glimmers, and this is no C2 handicap chase. He lines up against a moderate bunch here. Hobbs is also in some form again, 8/31,15p last 14 days. Two other things that caught the eye – last season he returned in the same hurdle as he did this season, and was tailed off there. He wasn’t pulled up but he did tail off from around 3/4 from home, as he did the last day. He won his next start. That gives some confidence that he could come on a bundle for it. If he jumps around he should out-class this moderate bunch for me. The ground is also a question – they were due rain today and possible heavy showers tomorrow- well if this does go soft he won’t mind, whereas it could negatively affect some of the others in this. He can cope with the current going but there shouldn’t be an excuse on that front. Johnson is also back in the saddle. At 7s,6s I thought worth a stab. He could be gone at the game, or he wins this comfortably – I think it could be one of the two.
Butlergrove King – well I wanted to take a stab at a double figure price as he is fairly lightly raced over fences and I fancied him at Ludlow recently before the meeting was abandoned. Nothing has really changed since then, the track is similar enough and the same reasons apply. I fancied him at Worcester in the summer where something went amiss and he was tailed off. He returned at Chepstow after some time off and was held up out the back and never got involved- strange for an habitual front runner I thought. Anyway, there are no out and out front runners in here and the hope is that he tries to make all. I think he prefers decent ground but he has an ok run on heavy so softer may be ok. The trainer is 2/13,4p here all runners also. I was happy to throw 1/2 a point at him at those odds. Those last two runs do temper some enthusiasm, as does the recent form of the trainer. But, he could have track position here.
Pace- so, I hope they try and make all. If he is held up then he will be getting a ‘not today’ ride. So Fine may track him and hopefully they both have it between then from a long way out. Royale Salute, Gary Charm and Carloswayback have been held up recently and will hopefully not get involved.
Royal Salute is short at 11/4 given the massive stamina question – that price seems ridiculous to my eyes- he may stay, he may relish it, I don’t care. 11/4 is too short in my book. He also has a rise in class to contend with. At 11/4 you do not want those two questions needing an answer. Not for me. Ultimatum Du Roy is from an in form stable and is in form himself, so could clearly go well. 7/2, 4/1 is ok, without being overly generous for me. That was a weak race, or not the strongest, the last day and he will need a bit more here for me. He has never won back to back races either and this is his 3rd outing within a month. I won’t be shocked if he wins but didn’t want to jump at 4/1, 7/2. Likewise Thegreendalerocket is in form and has a chance- 9/2 may be fair enough – I worry for him if the rain does arrive. I don’t really like the 49 day break- seems an odd amount of time and longer than ideal for an in-form horse whose best runs have come when returning within the month- but, that could be nothing, just a question. Going RH is also a question, 0/3,0p all handicaps, 1/5,3p LH. Only a minor niggle but one nonetheless. He is unexposed in this sphere and his last race has produced a couple of winners. Of all those above So Fine in the market, he would be the biggest danger for me, esp if the rain stays away/doesn’t get into ground.
The rest I was happy to leave. Sun Wild Life was just a bit too poor the last day for me and his stamina may be stretched if this goes soft. I want to see a bit more from him. Carloswayback is interesting and I would take note if market support. He didn’t jump/travel well the last day but stayed on over 20f, in what was a moderate race. He is inconsistent and isn’t getting any younger but I wouldn’t be shocked if he outran his odds of 16/1. If the selections run their races though I don’t think he is good enough to trouble them.
The two Pipe horses are headscratchers – I don’t know if connections are plotting and planning with those- one day, when their marks are so low, and they look out of form, they are going to be smashed in and bolt up. Or they are just mediocre. Gary Charm had a lot of form in France and is fairly exposed, but that form was all around 20f and I have seen nothing yet to suggest he stays this trip. The other one, Cafe, is more interesting but again didn’t do much LTO, and only plugged on in the hurdle race before that. He looks the better stayer but I want to see more. Any market moves should be noted for the pair. Just too many questions for me, even at their prices.
So, that’s the lot I think. It doesn’t look the strongest of races and looks So Fine’s best opportunity for a while over fences, if he can put it all together. The first few fences are critical- if he jumps well, is travelling well, and holding a position, you would like to think the others are in trouble. He may not travel well, he may hit a fence and wonder where his hurdles have gone. 7s allowed that poke I think, due to the ratings/class drop. Oh and his record second time out after an autumn seasonal reappearance is decent… 1,1,1… X
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST
12.20 Cat- Kisumu- UP
1.40 Winc – Cafe De Paris UP / Gary Charm UP (11/1< best)
1.40 Winc- So Fine- PU
12.30 South – Bring On A Spinner (14/1<) WON 5/1>5/2
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nope nothing else today.
Good luck with any bets.