CATTERICK
12.20
Danceintothelight (all hncps+ micro distance) WON 4/1>9/4
NOTE: McCain’s going ok, hit and miss… 6/35,13p last 14 days, but no stable form concerns as a reason to be put off. This one qualified the last day and ran an ok race in 3rd, bumping into a couple, the winner in particular. Jockey is 1/11,3p over hurdles,inc a win here I think. I am sure McCain will want to train a winner ridden by his daughter. This one will give it a good go from the front again, all conditions fine, could be another solid EW bet again, price allowing.
2.20
Onwiththeparty (all hncps) UP
Optical High (all hncps + micro – TJC) UP 18/1
NOTE: Slacks are going well,2/10,5p last 30 days. Onwiththeparty has showed improved form for this trainer and a repeat of that last run should put him in the mix against this lot you would think. Optical High- Smith’s are going ok, 5/26,11p last 14 days. This one unseated rider early LTO and his market weakness suggested he may need the run- it could be that he still needs the run, unless they’ve decided to get him fitter at home. The market may guide again but at least Cook is back in the saddle. The ability is there to win a race like this, albeit decent ground a question also, he could do with rain.
2.50
Oscatara (all hncps+hncp c) UP
Discoverie (all hncps) WON 11/8>5/2
Witness (hncp chase) UP
NOTE: Discovery for Slack seems the one here but has been well found at 11/8. In form, he goes back over fences. The form of his Sedgefield win in May,when he hacked up, has been franked a few times since. Oscatara for McCain has the ability to win this- gets cheekpieces here and based on that last run looks like he needs them to work. He could come on for it though and was well enough fancied that day. 50 days off- you never know whether that indicates they found an issue the last day, or have done some kind of op. Market may guide but not without a chance on paper. Hammon (Witness) only 1/33,5p last 14 days so some questions there. He is unexposed over here and drops in class and also gets headgear. He has been outpaced the last twice, that could be because he now needs further or the class of the race. You couldn’t really rule out any on paper albeit two of them have more questions than the fav.
WINCANTON
1.40
Gary Charm (hncp chase) UP
Cafe De Paris (hncp chase) UP
NOTE: Pipe 6/29,7p last 14 days and they are going better than they have been at times. Gary Charm is yet to show anything for connections. I am not sure what connections are planning with these two, as they race together again here. Their marks will drop to a point one day where they both probably hack up in a handicap somewhere. Cafe has at least showed more the last twice, and the step back up in trip may help. Jockey bookings suggest he is more fancied also, I think. He looks more likely to stay than Gary but that kind of statement can make me look silly. On paper they are hard to fancy, but you never know. The market may guide.
2.40
Grand March (all hncps) UP
Edeiff’s Lad (all hncps) 2nd 20/1>6/1
NOTE: Bailey (Grand March) only 2/28,7p last 14 days but this one seems fancied to go well. 0/6,1p over fences he went off the last day at 9/4 suggesting he didn’t need the run, but maybe he will come on for it. He needs to. Looks a bit hit and miss to my eyes,albeit takes a drop in class here. Gundry is 0/3,0p last 30 days, hard to know with these small yards if they are in or out of form. Horse is 1/9,4p over fences and is a distance winner. The drop to 16f and the better ground could be reasons for an improvement on recent runs. Back on last winning mark he could be an interesting outsider, EW bet at around 20s.
***
Nothing much more to add to those notes above.
RATINGS
Quick re-cap after 4 days of the ‘ratings shortlist’
Horse Race Base
Top 3 (inc top rated) : 3/16,9p = +0.75 points
(top rated: 0/5,3p = -5)
Geegeez Speed
Top 3 (inc top rated) : 3/18,9p = +10 points
(top rated: 2/6,2p = +15)
That does include any multiple qualifiers across both ratings and I will look at stripping them out also. The 50% win/place SR offers some promise. Anyway, something to keep an eye on.
RATINGS SHORTLIST
HorseRaceBase
Top Rated
2.20 Catt – Onwiththeparty UP
2.50 Catt – Discoverie WON 11/8>5/2
Top 3
12.20 Catt – Danceintothelight WON 4/1>9/4
Geegeez Speed
Top Rated
none.
Top 3
12.20 Catt – Danceintothelight WON 4/1>9/4
2.20 Catt – Onwiththeparty UP
2.50 Catt- Discoverie WON 11/8>5/2
***
I doubt there will any more content but will put the ‘complete’ sign up by 10am tomorrow, just in case I have missed a qualifier or something..
