TTP Jumps Notes: 07/12/16 (complete)

Qualifiers+ Notes + My View…

 

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LEICESTER 

I believe there are no qualifiers.

 

HEXHAM

1.15

Snuker (all handicaps + hncp chase + Micro – horse runs this season) UP 12/1>8/1

NOTE: Trainer’s horses going well enough without winning, 0/11,6p last 14 days. The market tends to guide with his after a break, from our experience so far this season anyway. Conditions look fine – 7lb below his last winning mark, he has decent form in heavy and stays further- this may even be a tad sharp but if it is genuinely heavy that may make up for it. He is also 2/6 around here over fences. And he has also won and run well over fences after similar length breaks before- can be readied if needs be it seems. Clearly there are two PUs next to his name, and indeed he has been pulled up in 4 of his last 7 runs- so maybe something is up or he is falling out of love with the game- but the break may have helped.  I think the market may guide but on paper he isn’t without a chance if fit, and back in some form- two ifs where you would want a price- currently 12s. Cheekpieces replace the blinkers. This is the jockey’s first ride for the trainer – an odd booking maybe if you were hoping for a win? Logically you would have expected to see one of his regular pilots, but over thinking jockey bookings can make a fool of you.

Of some interest maybe is that Brian Hughes is 3/11,6p on the horse (albeit hasn’t ridden him since 2014) and he rides the one below in this…

 

Runswick Days (hncp chase) UP 5/1

NOTE: trainer 0/4,2 places last 14 days. Drops back into C5 after not doing much in C4 LTO. That Kelso run suggests he stays well enough,albeit this is a stiffest test, esp in heavy. He has winning form in soft over 20f. This is the 3rd run for the yard and he seems to be in ok form. He has won off 88 before so I don’t want to say this mark is beyond him yet- the class of race could be more important.

 

2.45

Landmarque (all hncps + micro – trainer/jockey combo) UP 7/1>11/2 (looks a tiring day, and ground conditions some are handling,many are not- he was never really going, certainly not jumping well- poor effort but out on his feet at top of hill)

NOTE: Ewart again. This horse is unexposed under both codes so is hard to rule out- he tried chasing the last day. The hurdle run before that looked decent enough and he was outpaced there, before staying on – which suggests this step up in trip could have a positive effect. It is also his 3rd start for the trainer and 3rd start after a lengthy break so hopefully he may be spot on now. Certainly hard to rule out at 6/1 in what is a mediocre contest.

 

Next Hight (hncp hurdle) UP 33/1>66/1

NOTE: trainer 0/4,0p last 30 days. This one looks a tad out of form on paper. best form has been over 16/17f and there is limited evidence that he stays this trip, on this ground. Also now 0/5,0p at track, 0/13,1 p class 4 or above – and now 0/11,0 places all runs beyond 17f. 33/1 – it would be one of those winners that leaves you perplexed I think. Jockeys first ride for the trainer also. Visor removed from last run. Trainer is 0/108,5 places with handicap hurdlers going off 22/1 or bigger. At this stage, unless money comes (which would leave you even more confused) I am happy to leave. On what we know it is quite hard to imagine him getting involved.

 

3.15

Spoils of War (micro- class) 2nd 8/1>11/2

NOTE: Trainer a bit hit and miss, 2/29,8 p the last 14 days. Horse is unexposed having second chase start. Apart from being more experienced as a reason for improvement, he does run on heavy for the first time since his bumper run and first maiden hurdle. Those efforts suggest this kind of ground is what he wants, and maybe it was too lively the last day. He still ran ok for a fair way. Impossible to say he can’t get involved given that profile.

 

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My View: Well Net Hights looks up against it – if he was backed into 16s or something I may have that fear of ‘what if’ – but he really would be the most head scratching winner of a horse race for a very long time. Out of form and a massive stamina question on all known evidence.

The rest, based on past form/profiles, have some sort of chance. I think the market may be revealing about Snuker and what is expected – but he is well handicapped, relishes heavy, and has won after a break, so not impossible. The other three look interesting enough.

As always, use those subjective views as you please – if in doubt, trust the stats!

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3 Responses

  1. I have had 0.5pt e/w on Snuker in the 13:15 at Hexham. A lot of the others are carrying a lot of weight barring the 2 no-hopers (watch one of those win now!) and he has just about as many wins on heavy as the rest of them put together. That and the fact that trainer is 7/22, 10 places +16 over handicap chases here over the past 5 years. The headgear change will help given in the past 2 years when something has been switched it seems to help. Plus its been nibbled at this morning. I do agree the jockey booking is curious.

    1. Yep agree, jockey booking odd – unless he is newly attached to the yard maybe? I have had a nibble when clear he wasn’t taking a big walk – some of his can go from 12s to 18s/20s+ after a break. But, he ticks plenty of boxes and at around 12s/10s, sometimes best not to over-think jockey bookings. A big run would be no surprise, and neither would a poor one. Worth a chance at those odds for me.

      1. Ultimately a tad disappointing the pair. At least he showed a bit more there than recent efforts, suspect Ewart will find a chase for him to make all in at some point, hopefully back here.

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