This game of ours is all about the mind and it can be a roller coaster. I was a bit glum Saturday Evening- in part due to another poor day’s ‘tipping’ and also because the TTP stats were having a bad week after a blistering first 8 weeks or so. Then Sunday and Monday came along. The old boy Harry reminded me that I could still read the odd 3m+ chase correctly (some doubts were creeping in albeit there is still the odd skills gap that needs working on)- that was a rather important win mentally, if not financially – many points to claw back still. And over the last two days the TTP stats have won ‘systematic’ followers around +21 points thanks to two winners at 14s and 16s. I am updating week 10 results this evening but they make for slightly better reading now. And to top that off Steve tipped a decent winner at Lingfield. A decent two days. How quickly the mood can change.
I will update results from November/early December at some point this week- tips,and the various jumps angles.
Have just looked at the following properly, and definitely worth a go at 4s…
ROYAL NATIVE – 1.5 points win – 9/2 (general) UR early (how annoying)
I know many of you fancied him for the abandoned race at Exeter. He was on my shortlist of 4 and I think I was about to throw him in as a 1/2 point tip in the end. Anyway, he also happens to be a TTP qualifier in this also.
His record fresh is good, race conditions look fine also and it is a track the trainer does very well at with his handicap chasers 8/17,12 places.
Around 4/1 is more than fair. Fitness won’t be a questions- he is 1/4,4p at the track all runs, and 1/4,4 p on all runs on Good. The fact he comes out so quickly after that Exter race suggests he was there to perform- they clearly don’t want to waste time getting him out by the looks of things. He is on his last winning mark and this looks like the best time to catch him.
I would normally stick to 1 point – but everything else in here has questions to answer and he looks the one to beat to me. 4s looks generous in that context.
Well this does look a two horse race I think.. Leg Iron has a few questions to answer I think, 3 days after a PU and he has always looked better on softer and has done all his winning at C4 level. Jonjo’s horse- well he is inconsistent, can clout one, and was very poor the last day. He does have a stamina question over this trip, at a track like this also. Lightly enough raced though. St Dominick is unexposed/inexperienced but may still need the run after departing very early the last day. Best form has been in the slop so a going question also. Leo Luna is unpredictable and just looks out of sorts- he could bolt up, he could be tailed off. 4s is short for a horse like that. Pete The Feat is a solid horse but he is getting on now and has always been best on much softer- albeit I think he handles this- but it could mean something has too much toe for him later on. While he ran OK LTO I would have liked to see a bit more, esp as he has gone better fresh in the past. Longsdon only 2/27 last 14 days also. Royal Native, because of his record fresh and in conditions, his trainer, his liking for good, and his unexposed profile, just looked the solid one and over priced at around 4/1.
Pace- there could be a bit on also- all bar St Dominick like to lead/track the pace- i suspect Noonan will just track the other 4 ahead of him as they take each other on.
Tom George Chasers
3.00 Uttox – Behind The Wire UP
V Williams Chasers November (tracking into Dec)
3.00 Uttox – Buttercup 3rd 14/1
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST
1.00 Uttox – Que Sera UP 13/2>4/1 (blinkers didn’t work)
3.10 Font – Midnight Follie – Fell 2/1
Hobbs – 1.00 Uttox – Que Sera – UP
Trainer Track Combos
1.00 – Que Sera – UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
3.40 Fontwell- Kingston Mimosa – 3rd 12/1>33/1 … at 12/1 I thought this one looked an interesting EW price in what is a weak race- albeit if my racing profits relied on my ability to attack a moderate C5 handicap hurdle I would be doomed, so maybe take this with a lorry load of salt. But, a few things stood out- firstly he comes up well in the geegeez race card instant expert tab- he is a course winner and has won around this distance. The jockey booking also caught the eye and he has a good record around here and it is the first time he has ridden the horse. You could also make valid excuses for those last two runs – excuses built into his price I think- 2 starts ago was after a break and the last run was on soft, which all evidence suggests he hates. On top of that, they were both in Novice hurdles where he probably doesn’t have the ability and he was sent off at 200/1 the last day. He was also only pulled up approaching the last – which suggests he may benefit from the run also. The fact he returns within 11 days suggests he wasn’t pulled up due to any problems. The final piece is his form – so he has won over 18f here in a weak enough race but a few have placed. But it is that run at Newton Abbot in the summer that caught the eye- he came a decent second there,going down by a neck. The horses that finished behind him in 3rd through to 7th have all come out since and won 10 races between them- Mulholland’s Earls Court was 1l behind him in that race, running of OR90. He is now rated OR 113 having hacked up in a few races since (now looks held) And there are 4 more who have franked the form. So, for this level, that looks solid form to my eye. Anyway, taking all of that lot together I thought 12s looks of some interest and I will have a fun EW nibble. Anything can happen in these races and nothing would surprise, no doubt there are a few who have yet to reveal their true ability, lurking somewhere. Shaddaii– He looks solid in here and has bumped into a couple of unexposed ones the last twice. He is lightly raced and a repeat of either of those last two runs may be enough here- he is a course winner also, and was of some interest. We shall see how they get on.
That will be all for today.