Fort Carson (hncp h) UP 10/1>14/1 (never travelled)
NOTE: King 1/15,6p last 14 days. There isn’t much to say to put you off at what looks an EW price. All race conditions are fine and at the back end of last season he was in decent form. Something went wrong I think on his final start and he probably needed his last run. Of interest is that he has won returning within 7 days before, and he is also 2/3,3p in C4. It isn’t impossible he can get involved here. He does need a career best and you would think something may have more in hand. But you wouldn’t fall of your seat if he won this, which makes him dangerous to leave at 10s in my opinion. Trusting the ‘general race type stats’.
Que Sera (micro class) UP 13/2>4/1 (led until a few out,faded quickly,maybe buzzed up in blinkers,or has issues)
NOTE: Hobbs in form, 6/30,13 places last 14 days. I don’t know what went wrong the last day but maybe a combination of the lay off and the trip did for him. Still, you don’t like seeing them being pulled up- but Hobbs has form in this regard with horses PU then coming out and winning NTO – in fact, having just dived into my HRB account – with handicap hurdlers that PU LTO,and that are sent off 7/1 or shorter, 4/23,12 places- which is fine enough. That is against 5/94 or so, when removing that odds cap. So, the market can guide. The blinkers also replace the CP- so, maybe they were scratching their head as to how poor that run was- doing something different at least, and Dikie is up. Unexposed. Probably worth chancing at 13/2. Could win, could run a shocker.
Bob Mahler (NHF) 3rd 5/1
NOTE: Greatrex starting to hit some more consistent form now, 4/18,7p last 14 days. His record with 1st time career starters is a solid 25%. At around 9/2,4/1 there is nothing to say to put you off, unless you personally don’t like the price. With stats of 4/7 in bumpers here before the season started, I am happy to trust the stats. Harry Fry’s looks the main danger.
Royal Native (all hncp + hncp c) UR
NOTE: Honeyball 0/5,1p last 14 days. I have tipped this one on the free post- he ticks plenty of boxes and 9/2, 4/1 was more than fair. Given his record fresh and suitability to conditions, he looks solid to me, if here to run his race. Also still lighltly raced and there could be more to come over fences. Also a fair bit of pace on which should help as he looks like a stayer. He may also handle good ground better than most in here. Solid.
My View: Not too much to add to what I have said above. Royal Native would be my pick of that lot but I can see all of the rest winning given their profiles/form, and they are reasonable prices. Hopefully a couple can go in.
(scroll to bottom for week 10 + running totals etc)
Week 10 Totals
General Race Types:5/46, 17p = -9.5
Micro Angles: 4/33,17p = -3
Total including multiple qualifiers: 9/79,34p = -12.5
Total 1x 1 point only : 6/66, 28p = -22.5
Running Total End Week 10
General Race Types: 64/379, 126p = +91.65
Micro Angles: 26/206, 61p = -24.2
Total including multiple qualifiers: 88/585, 187p = +67.45
Total 1x 1 point only : 79/498, 159p = +64.15
Bonus Stats: 3/23,6p = -6.5
Those are the numbers, and they build on what was touched on last week I suppose. The ‘general race types’ (all hncps + hncp h+c, NHF) are outperforming Micro Angles, at least ‘systematically. Albeit, following the Alexander winner at 16s yesterday, that helps those somewhat. While the week 10 totals are not brilliant, the place stats should give some confidence- with a bit more luck/the odd reversal, it would have been another profitable week.
The stats continue to highlight horses that are running well which is the main thing. But, it is weeks like that which show why you need a decent bank if betting them all as a system. And the last two days also demonstrate how things can change with a couple of decent priced winners. Onwards. Hopefully I may have put you off plenty of losers also- and thankfully there were no ‘dont back these’ clangers that went in (albeit one 16/1 shot very nearly did!) Trusting the stats hasn’t been a bad approach so far.
As touched on a few days ago, across the portfolio there are a few too many bets for my own comfort- the general race type section is averaging 5 qualifiers a day, which probably is around my comfort level. When you add in the Micro Angles, we are averaging 10 selections a day (albeit Saturday’s,with 4 meetings, have thrown up 20-25 in recent weeks) Anyway, it is what it is at the moment.
As always if you have any questions, suggestions for improvement to your experience etc ,fire away in the comments or drop me an email.