TTP Jumps Notes: 29/11/16 (COMPLETE)

RESULTS

Full results for end week 9 can be read HERE>>> (skip to bottom)

Summary week 9

WEEK 9 TOTAL

General Race Types: 7/42, 12 p = -3.75

Micro Angles:   1/20, 2 p  =  -17.5

Total including multiple qualifiers: 8/62,14p = -21.25

Total 1x  1 point only :  8/55,12p = -12.25

BONUS

2/7,3p = +5.5

The micro angles have let the side down again, and certainly if backing everything systematically, there should be more confidence in the general race types for now it seems, as you will see from the running total at the link above. So, some caution on the Micro Angles but none of these have odds caps and we are still in the ‘only takes a couple of winners’ territory to make them read much better.

After the blistering start we were due a couple of poorer weeks, but the General Race Types, which could be turning into the ‘backbone’ of the approach are over 100 points up still, in 9 weeks. That isn’t bad.

The Bonus Stats were a nose away from a 20/1 winner to add to those profits above, which would have been nice. Some of you may have backed the Hereford winner at 6/1 but I am not counting them in results this season. Anyway, they are what they are, do with them as you please.

As always any questions/comments etc are welcome.

SOUTHWELL 

12.25

Global Dream NR – (all hncps + micro distance) (remember these brackets refer to which stats in the TTP guide the horse qualifies against) 

NOTE: Bailey yet to get firing yet.0/15,1p last 30 days, 0/9,0 places last 14 days. Horse is 2/5,3 places over fences and is still unexposed enough. He has won from 16f to 24f so you can’t say 20f is a problem. It looks like he prefers deep mud but again not enough runs on Good to Soft to say it is too lively. I suspect he may have needed his last run and is a course winner. Harry Skelton is on and trainer/jockey are 11/34,14 places in handicaps, +35 points. A booking to keep an eye on. I struggle to see why he is in the 16/1 | 14/1 range or thereabouts (or he was last night) here. That seems big, yes there are some rivals with more attractive profiles/recent form but he could get involved here. I would like to see market support and the yard is cold enough, but at that price you can take a chance I think- trusting the stats.

3.00

Isla Di Milano (hncp h + micro age + going IF soft) UP (nibbled at,but ran a shocker)

NOTE: Vaughan 1/21,4 places last 14 days, possibly just starting to go off the boil. This one is lightly raced and unexposed enough. He could just not be very good but he is in definite ‘clanger’ territory and at his odds I will have something on (his 40/1 shot that nearly won at Ludlow lodged firmly in my mind!) The market suggest this one doesn’t have a chance. On paper he hasn’t done much yet at all. I doubt he was there to do much in novice hurdles given his price, but on his handicap debut last time he was poor- he may have needed it of course, but even so it was a poor run. I doubt he is good enough but this is a poor quality race and given his profile etc you wouldn’t fall of your seat if he won/went close. Unlikely to qualify on the micro angle, looks good to soft, which could help this one.

LINGFIELD

2.40

Heath Hunter (hncp hurdle) UP (no idea what the going is there,was Soft,heavy in places last night/early this morning, now appears soft,good to soft in places- in any case he was so poor I don’t want to be using that as an excuse,albeit the deeper the better and he never looked happy) 

NOTE: Pipe has yet to hit a ‘hot streak’ really this season as yet, but he is 1/13,2 places last 14 days. This horse has a solid chance to my eye – well, I wouldn’t want to leave him at 7s personally given that he seems to be a mud lover and if this meeting gets the green light, he will relish conditions. He doesn’t seem a good ground horse to me, and as such you can put a line through his last few ‘summer’ runs. He has also gone well enough after breaks of 60+ days. The market may well guide to fitness, that would be a concern- but Pipe can ready them if he wants to. He is also now 5lb below his last winning mark. If fit, and this turns into a slog, he could out run these odds. Any big drift and we may know our fate I suspect.

3.40

Rathealy (hncp hurdle) UP 16/1>7/1>10/

NOTE: Pipe again and another interesting runner. Another who looks best in ‘the slop’ and again recent runs could be ignored based on the ground. He won at Warwick last March of OR128, now here off 106 – so undoubtedly well handicapped if putting it all together. He was just starting to run a good race the last day before making a really bad error, that could have been some signal of a return to form. He will relish these conditions. He was put in at a general 14s/16s last night, and that was clipped in across the boards to 7s or so. I don’t know how long those big prices lasted in truth. There is a stamina question also- yet to conclusively prove he doesn’t stay it, in these conditions, and has won easily over 16f at Plumpton on soft. We shall see, another where a return to form, mainly due to the going/hncp mark, wouldn’t shock you.

***

My View:

Well the morning inspections are not until 9am-9.30 , so at this stage I have no idea if they will be on. I see no obvious reason, given the odds, to not just trust the stats with all those above. 1 or 2 could win, all 4 could still be running this time tomorrow. It has that feel to it- of the more ‘exposed’ ones (not Vaughans) they all have past form in the book which if repeated would get them competitive in race conditions. On that basis they are hard to leave. And Vaughans could just be useless, or he comes on a bundle from that last run and it transpires he has a fair bit in hand. The market suggests the latter but the pain of seeing him dot up would be far greater at that price than ‘saving’ 1 point for me.

As always, do as you please. Hopefully at least one can go in to make it a decent enough day.

Good Luck.

Josh