FREE DAILY POST: 29/11/16 (COMPLETE)

 

Both jumps meetings face morning inspections with deep frost expected across the country, so we may have a day off. We shall see…

No tipping races of choice so…

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/case portfolio: LIVE TEST

Chase

3.10 Ling- Rocky Bender UP 14/1 / Si Certait Vrai UP 3/1

 

V Williams Chasers

3.10 Ling- Rocky Bender UP (16/1< guide)

 

PIPE November

Thanks to Andrew below for drawing my attention to the Pipe November Angle which given the lack of activity I seem to have overlooked! He has had one qualifier this month which I appear to have missed (2nd 4/1)- and has another below. Research is in the Venetia post in Free Systems tab above. He had a poor 2015, and this is only his second runner this month. So, maybe his strategy has changed, having been very successful in 2013, 2014….anyway let’s see how this one gets on…

2.40 Lingfield – Heath Hunter

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

3.00 Southwell- HEAVENLY PROMISE 20/1 – 14/1 –(UP 20/1>9/1- strange run,looked very exciting for a time as jockey sat still,not much there when asked turning in,nibbled at. Others days for this one maybe)  still no idea if this meeting is on but this one could be worth a stab- no least because the trainer ‘could be’ developing a knack for plotting horses up on handicap hurdles debut- he is 2/2 in the last year with such types. +25 SP, 2/3 last two years and 1/2 at Southwell. This one makes handicap debut and steps back up in trip. He has ran over similar trips in maiden hurdles which makes me wonder if it will help – but he hasn’t been there to get competitive in any of those. Heskin is back on and has ridden him once. I don’t know if he has a relationship with the owner or what but that is no bad jockey booking. Market support would be significant I think in what is a very weak race. This one could be tailed off, or could bolt up with a tonne in hand. Worth a poke at those odds I think and I have thrown 1/2 point to find out. (TTP stats also have the Vaughan horse, which the market suggests is up against it,but is another one lightly raced who is 20s and another who I have nibbled at-albeit based on his last run,first in a handicap,that could be in vein – but we are trusting the stats and he had a similar type nearly win at 40s at Ludlow the other day, for TTP)

12.55 Southwell- MIDNIGHT JADE– 5/2 – (2nd, short head- agony) This one is on the short side, for the same trainer as above, but I thought I would mention her given I did so LTO when 8/1 as a pace angle- she gave it her best shot at Warwick the last day but it looked as though she would come on for the run. She also got racing a long way from home. She will try and make all here, and if indeed did need it, is going to take a hell of a lot of stopping for me. She ‘could’ have this sewn up a long way from home if jumping well. I appear to have missed the 7/2, 4s which is a bit annoying as that would have been a very good price I think, in the context of this race. It should be a fun watch nonetheless as she strings these out.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

13 Comments

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  • Paddy Watch

    Nothing for tomorrow as far as i can see,No joy over the weekend or today

    Running Total +12.5

    Another new combo has cropped up this season Tizzard/Tom O Brien,only had one ride for him prior to current season,this season 9/36 for +35 profit
    2 to note tomorrow
    Long Leg Luke 2.10 Lingfield
    Cucklington 3.40 Lingfield

    gearoid180468 7 months ago Reply


  • Thanks Gearoid for Paddy Watch, I am really enjoying it. I am a little wary of the O’Brien / Tizzard combo. HRB stats show O’Brien had 44 rides for Tizzard 2008 to 2015 for a small profit. The combo had a losing run of 25 2015 to 2016 and have just come off a run of 13 losers. Good luck with it but please continue with the good work on Paddy.
    Ray

    kipper24 7 months ago Reply


  • Its too early to say its a profitable angle yet.as i remember took Tizzard good while to get going this season,its always usefull to look at the 14 day stats on the Racing Post,at the moment the Tizzard stable is running 35%,thats a strike rate that is impossible to maintain longterm unless you have a Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliot conveyer belt and little competition,its often a question i ponder,How long can a horse be kept at peak fitness

    gearoid180468 7 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh, I saw your angle about David Pipe and handicap hurdlers in november after a lay off. There is a qualifier today Heath Hunter in the 2:40 at Lingfield but to my knowledge this has been the only qualifier so far this year. Is there any mileage in running this into December as well? The same question with the Venetia Williams chasers this month as she was slow to start this year. Thanks

    Andrew 7 months ago Reply


    • Hi Andrew, thanks for this- in all the Venetia excitement I appear to have overlooked my Pipe angle for the month! Corrected above, this is only his second qualifier of the month and that lack of action for those returning after a break suggests that they may be behind on their home work- and as such it is probably wise to track it into next month.
      Likewise, I get the impression Venetia was probably 2-3 weeks behind where she wanted to be, and I will track her/post ‘qualifiers’ into next month also to see what she does. I don’t think there is much rain forecast in general for the first half of December so we shall see- team Kerry Lee could do with the ground changing also.
      Cheers
      Josh

      Josh 7 months ago Reply


  • hi josh, if southwell is on, might be interesting bet in 1225. ie safari journey. running again 3 days after being pulled up, after jockey lost irons, got £5 on @ 45 to 1, won 2 outgoings ago, so got decent form.

    malcolm pendrey 7 months ago Reply


    • I have SJ top of my ratings…has placed 6 times on going. won 4 times in class
      Has won at the distance, and is good value if he belies his years…
      45/1 terrific odds Malcolm. BOL.

      Tony Mc. 7 months ago Reply


      • I think my rating of SJ…can only be looked on now as historical…. A grand old horse never the less.
        Age gets us all.

        tonymc 7 months ago Reply


  • NEW POST… I have pulled together a ‘racing books’ post – what I have enjoyed reading, and a request for new books from you good readers…

    http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/11/29/racing-books-what-should-i-be-reading-this-christmas/

    Josh 7 months ago Reply


  • Midnight Jade must have been short on Betfair 1.12 or shorter – Bugga!

    Just not happening for you at the moment Josh

    Jo 7 months ago Reply


    • That my friend was horrible to watch. I waited to see if she drifted a tad and will admit having a go when hit 11/4, I thought that was fair- the hope when getting the lead (which she eventually did) and building up a gap in part is that is forces the closers into an error- credit to Moloney that was a cracker of a ride, niggling some way out and stamina won out. Whether Challoner has gone for home too soon, or failed to just fill the lungs turning for home, I am not sure. Or she has got lonely in front, just curling up late. That is racing – albeit got done in a photo with Elliots on Sunday, a TTP bonus selection, 20/1, beaten a nose. Never nice, but that’s racing. Damn.

      Josh 7 months ago Reply


      • I agree on Maloney’s ride. Both him and Richard Johnson earned their riding fees(I was on the 3rd). I suspect if it was possible to back the former to win and the latter to place in an inplay double I could have become a millionaire they were both so far back.

        Nick Mazur 7 months ago Reply


    • I think I said more than bugga Jo…..I was still convinced we had a winner….til the photo.
      Sooooo Bugga bugga bugga…

      tonymc 7 months ago Reply


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