FREE DAILY POST: 28/11/16 (COMPLETE)

 

TIPS

No Tips.

1.40 Lud

No tip albeit there is a TTP stats selection which I have repeated below from the Members Post, I am sure they won’t mind 🙂 Williams does well here in handicaps over this distance and has Allez Vic here, 5/1. He would destroy this field on his best form, esp if he could ever repeat a couple of his chase places from much higher marks. Much like with Askamore Darsi, all hope rests on the head gear here I think- first time Cheekpieces. If they work he makes 5/1 look decent, if they don’t it is a shocking price!

We shall see how he gets on in what is a weak race…

1.40

Allez Vic (micro – distance) (the stat the horse qualifies against) UP (CP didn’t work!)

NOTE: Trainer in form, 8/36,12 places last 14 days. Horse now 0/12,3p over fences but his mark is dropping and there has been the odd very good chase place, in much better races than this. Some hope rests on the first time cheekpieces maybe. He has the ability to win this, if putting his best foot forward- another that may be all about the headgear.

 

 

JUMPS ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1< guide)

2.40 Lud – Gino Trail- WON 11/4 

 

E Lavelle 3-5 year olds/November

3.30 Plump – Allez Jacques UP 7/2

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

2.30 Plumpton – Straits Of Messina  NR-8/1-  could be an interesting EW bet here given the trainer is 3/12,5 places with handicappers returning after more than 365 days off. This one has had a monster lay-off which caught the eye and made me have a look at his stats with such types. He is also 2/6,5 places with handicap hurdlers at the track, 1/2,1p with this jockey. When last seen the horse somewhat bolted up and is only 1lb higher here, due the enforced absence. It could be he needs the run or three to get to peak fitness- but those are the stats and I found them of some interested for a horse suited to all conditions. If he returns in the form of that Uttoxeter run he makes 8s look big. If he is as fat as a pig, it is a bit skinny! The market may well guide. Trainer isn’t in the best of form but then most of those to have run have been massive prices and the odd one sent off under 4s has run well.

***

That will be all for today.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

8 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,
    I’m surprised you didn’t look at Empire of Dirt yesterday in the Troytown 3m chase? Especially as you gave a great tip when he won at Cheltenham in March. Won today at 12s.
    Cheers,
    Jon

    jonclarke 4 months ago Reply


    • Hi Jon. I will be honest and say I didn’t look at race/realise until late Sunday morning. Sunday racing is tough as usually come late Sat afternoon my head is fried from racing and I usually also have plans on a Saturday evening. My trips to Ireland are rarely successful also,and given my current form prob wise I didn’t dive in.

      But he did somewhat jump out when I looked at him given the history with him. He won cosily at Cheltenham also. And hacked up again today. He was clear top on HRB ratings and an unknown quantity over this trip,and trained by elliot now who had won the last two renewals. All makes sense after the event of course.

      He is probably worth considering for the National at this stage. Prob have a couple of preps over hurdles to protect his mark. His jumping can let him down but seems to have improved now. If he lines up at Aintree he will be half the price he is now I suspect.

      Another that got away maybe! That eill teach me for not bothering to look late Sat afernoon.

      The market/odds trends jumped out also when I had a look. 18/19 went off 12/1 or shorter, 1/135 runners 14/1 + . Could have backed top 5 in market and come out in front today. Noted for next year!

      Looks a classy beast now.
      Josh

      Josh 4 months ago Reply


      • Empire Of Dirt. Indeed could well be a good’un. Hiked up the weights for the Festival and still won well and he’s only gone and done it again.

        Time may tell us that he was simply a graded animal thrown into handicaps

        Ali 4 months ago Reply


        • Yep but he only went up 6lb and that was never going to stop him – suppose fitness (Elliot can clearly ready them if desired,albeit his stats with 60+ days horses is average at best- just about if he wants them fit I think!) and trip were the questions- but the way he won over 21f at a stiff Cheltenham,in a well run big field handicap, gave hope for that- and if he improved for it then that mark was going to look silly – and improve for it he did I think. Crossed the line like he could have gone round again. Definitley one to keep an eye on, over next couple years there is a decent race or three in him, if his jumping holds.

          Josh 4 months ago Reply


  • If it’s the 1.40 you’re going to look into, well I can tell you it looks really trappy to me

    Question marks all over the place

    Ali 4 months ago Reply


  • I’ve gone for Three of a kind in the 1.40 fergal and paddy team up here and I like their chances at 10s.

    James b 4 months ago Reply


    • Good luck James, looks a tricky race and most have questions really – all bar the Daly horse who could make 9/4 look big from the front against this moderate bunch, and he is best fresh. But reasons a few could improve at some point, inc Fergals. Needs to jump better than the last day but going RH may help and you have a good price. When Allez drops out the back I will be cheering you on haha

      Josh 4 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh / all

    A bit free time this morning and with Newcastle being on today decided to revisit the stallion data there, Looking at each individual distance I wanted to see which sires where performing best for the trip and allocate them into groups for future reference. I have come up with the below data using a minimum of a 33% win SR for each sire………….

    5F – 33 runs, 14 wins, 42.42% win SR, 18 places 54.55% place SR
    6F – 40 runs, 20 wins, 50% win SR, 26 places 65% place SR
    7F – 40 runs, 21 wins, 52.5% win SR, 27 places 67.5% place SR
    1M – 49 runs, 23 wins, 46.94% win SR, 27 places 55.1% place SR
    1M 2F – 26 runs, 14 wins, 53.85% win SR, 16 places 61.54% place SR
    1M 4 1/2 F – 36 runs, 17 wins, 47.22% win SR, 24 places 66.67% place SR
    2M 1/2 F – 13 runs, 9 wins, 69.23% win SR, 11 places 84.62% place SR

    Although the above figures look great they do come with a wealth warning with less than a years worth of data to look at, but it also does give us a sound base to work from and there are a few interesting stats evolving already the best being…..

    Sire – Fastnet Rock
    Track – Newcastle
    Distance 1M 2F

    5 runs, 4 wins, 4 places 80% win SR, 80% place SR

    No Fastnet Rock’s running today but there is 3 qualifiers from the above list
    I will list them and their individual record over the distance…

    1.20 Newcastle – Dellaguista 2.92 (Sea the Stars – 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
    4.50 Newcastle – Groundworker 4.4 (Tagula – 5 runs, 2 wins, 3 places)
    4.50 Newcastle – Fuel Injection 60.0 (Pastoral Pursuits – 8 runs, 3 wins, 4 places)

    There is also 1 other of interest didn’t quite make the list but has a good place record over the track / distance and at the odds could be worth a small EW play..

    1.50 Newcastle – Plead 40.0 (Dutch Art – 7 runs, 2 wins, 5 places)
    (All above odds are current Betfair exchange prices)

    With the data set being so small I think its best to update the data after each meeting so it will evolve and change with some dropping out and others coming in but I think if we keep the base Win SR at 33% over time we should make long term profits any comments or suggestions to the above?

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 4 months ago Reply


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