FREE DAILY POST: 22/11/16 (COMPLETE)

complete…TIP+ video + jumps angles so far…

VIDEO: I have recorded a video review of Haydock from Saturday + the odd other observation.

You can watch that HERE>>>

(pot of tea and note-pad at the ready)

As always any comments welcome, especially any horses that caught your eye/went into your notebook from over the weekend

***

TIPS

2.45 Sedgefield-

NAKADAM – 1 point win – 6/1 (BFsports) 11/2 (PP) 5/1|9/2 (general) UP

Well taking on Hughes was clearly a mistake – not a shock winner who drifted from 7/4 to a more reasonable SP of 10/3, given the odd niggle- he has clearly adopted the Midnight Legend genes that relish soft. Nakadam- what a strange run- he looked to be cruising into it to my eye, travelling well- and then he just seemed to stop/not go anywhere before they turned for home very strange. Maybe a problem, maybe didn’t pick up in that ground. Does wear a tongue tie- maybe coudn’t breathe. Who knows.  Or trainer’s horses are  just ill. Stopping that abruptly suggests something was up.  He did drift out again before the start which raised some alarm bells, but then so did the winner and the market got that wrong. I am in danger of Jonjo being in better form than me soon! 

Well it was about time I found a new cliff horse to replace Fox Appeal 🙂 Well i have only backed/tipped this one once before and that was last time out. He is young, unexposed, but has a chase win+place in similar conditions. He stays every yard of this trip, goes on soft (not 100% sure on heavy if it goes that way but you can say that about plenty in here) and I think has the best form on offer in this. That C3 handicap chase win at Kelso was against a hardy bunch,many of whom have run with credit/won since. He also ran well at Ayr the race before that where he would have won but for walking through the last fence- he stuffed Johnny Eager in that race, back in third. I find their places in the market odd on that basis.

I think his price is a reaction to that PU last time out- when carrying mine, and maybe some of your, money. He was poor that day and you have to ask why. Well, it was his first run of the season and I believe he needed it from a paddock watcher who I know was there- he was supported and then was weak in the market, which may back that up. He was also going RH and it may be no coincidence that his best form in his short career to date has been LH. And finally, and this is the main piece of the jigsaw I think – he didn’t have the cheekpieces on. (so, a bloody good tip the last day if you ignore those factors!! idiot.) They return here. As does Richie McLernon who rode him on his best two runs to date. Coincidentally he has a great record here, 4/17,6 places.

I also wanted to check the trainer’s record with horses who pulled up LTO- all runners – 4/27,6 places.. in handicaps (flat I think) and handicap chases… 3/6,3 places. On that basis I am not as concerned as I may have been. He wasn’t interested the last day and never went a yard but Jamie persevered with him and didn’t pull him up until 3/4 from home. He raced plenty to think it would have helped fitness wise and that was a much better race than this one.

All in all he looks the most interesting. If he repeats that Ayr or Kelso run he wins this for me. He should be better than this mark in time, hopefully starting today. He jumped well the last day also and could be getting better with experience. He is a hold up horse but they do well enough here and there seems to be enough pace on. If he jumps well he really should be going close here- provided that PU wasn’t a physical issue , which given he returns 33 days later suggests not.

So, all in all, more than happy to take around 5s. That seems more than fair here to my struggling chase eyes.

I really found it hard to make a case for much else..

I won’t go through them all but plenty in here look really out of form and have a combination of ability, going and distance questions/unknowns.

Nortonthorpelegend seems short enough for me for a horse mainly kept to a sound surface- and running well on it- I have no ideal how he will handle soft/heavy, but based on what they have done on the track, the selection is much more likely to handle it. Well he definitely handles soft. There is also a distance question/unknown in what will be a right old slog here given the rain forecast. A real test. Trainer is only 2/33 here also but he does have the superb Hughes up top. Seems short though to me given the questions/unknowns. Jonny Eager looks like he stays all day- but the selection stuffed him at Ayr seemingly with no excuse. Maybe he will handle a proper slog better but 7/2 seems short for one who has had 200+ days off for a trainer without a great record with such types- he is 3/38 in his training career with all handicap chasers returning 121-365 days. 7/143 all runners last 5 years,albeit 1/11 with handicap chasers in that period. That is the question and at 7/2, 4/1 I don’t want a fitness question. He may win, clearly unexposed. But he won’t carry my money.

The rest have too many questions. Bennys Well has been there and done it in conditions but has been really poor the last twice. He may have needed it the last day but I have my doubts about what ability remains and if it is good enough for this, certainly if 2 of top 3 run their race say. Smith is only 1/28 last 14 days, 10 places and he is rock bottom of the HRB total ratings which concerns me. He could out run his price though. Master Rajeem also handles all conditions but is really out of form- hope rests on the switch of yard but she is 0/9,0 places with new stable recruits from other yards in last two years- She is also only 3/42 with all chasers last two years. Enough doubts for me albeit maybe a price to take a stab with change- i wont be I don’t think. Happy to leave them and the rest.

So that is that really. The trainer form is a minor concern also but many of those that have run poorly have been massive prices, some 33/1+, 150/1+ etc. Those that have been around 8/1< have generally run well enough for me not to be too concerned. If this one goes poorly in these conditions then maybe something is actually up. 5s allows the chance in the context of this race/the oppo for me.

That will do for tipping.

 

***

JUMPS ANGLES

A decent win for one of the ‘portfolio’ angles and an unfortunate unseat for the Williams chasers who was going to give us an 8/1 / 15/2 winner. Never mind. That’s chasing.

Venetia Williams Chasers

1.10 Sedge- Burtons Well

3.10 Ling- Cap Jazz

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– LIVE TEST

Hurdle

2.35 Ling – Hughesie (E Williams 60+ days)

Chase

12.10 Sedge- Sky Full Of Stars (unexp chasers)

3.10 Ling – Kap Jazz (V Williams 60+ days)

 

***

No more today, that will do.

Good luck with your bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Cheers Josh. 365 feature race so happy to take the 9/2 there for the possibility of the free bet and BOG+ if a drifter (7.0 on Betfair currently in the very early market…all of £40 matched).
    Paul

  2. Hi josh, live near Sedgefield and the weather is horrendous. Strong winds and torrential rain for the last four hours. Would be amazed if it’s heavy, or indeed cancelled. Hopefully not as I’m on at 6/1.Good luck

      1. I don’ think they actually know! According to BHA site there is ‘no going stick reading available’ for this meeting – that indicates they have broken it or lost it?? So amateur. So, they can’t ‘technically’ (albeit going sticks seems odd, sticking your boot in prob just as effective!) measure it against previous goings etc- I reckon they had a reading from whenever they last had a stick, and have made an educated guess based on the rain/’walking the course’- i suspect it is deep heavy, prob best working on that basis. Could be some strange results.

        1. Yeah that probably makes more sense. I a little bit amusing but agree that its just a little unprofessional/cowboy. I expected heavy so planned for it with my bets.

  3. Paddy Watch

    Paddy is on Royal Vacation for Colin Tizard 3.10 Lingfield but its a no bet at 9/4

    Running Total +11.75

  4. Nice video Josh, most informative. Not much quality racing early week over the jumps. I am focusing more on the all weather Monday to Thursday. I was talking to Matt at Geegeez re trying to find a way in via Sires. I know a few fellow contributors have covered this area previously. More later when I have done a bit more work on it, starting slowly.

    Anyone wishing to add value please do.

  5. AW fan here and looking at the 1250 2 i like one is the fav 9/4 but one being overlooked in the market. Deep resolve 16/1. On breeding may struggle with the trip. Is a few lb high than best winning mark plus sire stats are poor in november.
    The interesting thing is last time out 12 days ago we were beaten by the fav 4.6L giving away 6lb today we get 2lb and the assistance of Fanning. No brainer for me at the price to have a little ew or w/p as for me this horse should be around a 10- 9/1 poke.

  6. RP says 49mm in 36 hrs. A little odd when you see the slop the americans race in but safety first even if a little frustrating.

    1. My feeling is that through the winter there may be certain sires that produce winners regardless of the going? I am trying to make it as simple as possible. I have a couple of sires in mind but need their progeny to run to give me some evidence to go on.

  7. No time for full write ups but I am on the following:
    Sedgefield 12:10 Willie Hall-Yes he is 12 but he loves heavy ground-2113 on it last year and Brian Hughes gets on for the first time in 5 years
    Sedgefield 14:45 Master Rajeem-Obviously the trainer is a concern but former trainer said he comes alive at Sedgefield and he hasnt been here since running ok off a much higher mark on far too fast a ground. Has ideal conditions. I am not worried about the heavy given his 2nd when carrying 12 stone over 3 miles. For all his bad runs he is still no. 3 on HRB ratings which shows the quality of the opposition and 14s was too big.
    Sedgefield 15:20 Frobisher Bay-Trainer and jockey are 5/15, 7 places here in bumpers and won this race last year. Jefferson thinks he will make a nice horse. Seems to prefer soft ground. Heavy obviously an unknown but considering they think he will make a 3 mile chaser (MH book) you would think he is better equipped for the slog than several others.
    Lingfield 14:35 Bells n Banjos-Greatrex is 2/2 in handicap hurdles here in the past 5 years. Appears to be a much better horse on soft/heavy so I would excuse his last 2 runs.

    1. Good luck Nick, yep I have to admit to having thrown 1/4 point at Master Rajeem when I saw fancied a bit at around 12s/14s- he is the big priced clunker in field I was probably close to- market a guide for Bennys I think, and looks weak. Those two and the tip were the ones at the prices… all about how he travels I think and whether a change of scenery in last couple weeks perks him up- he has ran a shocker here also but agree if he is going to show anything like his best form it will be here. If he is travelling/jumping well early I may be watching through my fingers- much like when the Bowen horse won the national here, clear early there I was in trouble also. Do think an on song Nakadam will be much too good for him but he could hate the going, and he can take odd liberty at a fence.

      If you take him out- fav may hate ground/may not stay, Whillans may not be fit enough. Becomes very open in that context and if he ran to his best he would be the one left over I think.

      Am on 3.20 due to TTP, and may take a look at Willies now you mention him, was a TTP selection the last day…

      1. Yep WH does look big at 10s doesn’t he, worth an EW stab for sure to my eye – looks like he relishes the mud and also a drop in class, + jockey, got course form over hurdles. Good spot, whatever he does, that is a good bet at those odds I think- only one properly proven in heavy, which I think it must be. Will appreciate the slower pace they go here and hughes a master at conserving energy, only last Jan he had decent C4 chase form so ability must still be there somewhere. GL

        1. Well, he looked good on paper anyway haha – that is £5ew I won’t be seeing again, not to worry! Sulky effort, clearly more up with him than being outpaced on good recently.

          1. Yeah although I dont think it was a bad bet although probably wont be backing agian. Kicking myself for picking Banjo over Billy in the 14:35 when I had my eye on the two. Rajeem I am happy with no shame in getting beaten by the unexposed favourite. Nice to see the West of the Edge form getting franked.

  8. ARQUEBUSIER 2.05 Lingfield…is a back to back winner on heavy ground…..
    bet 365 15/2…is a worthwhile dibble. Also tops my ratings….although out of whack at the moment.

  9. My tipping is still off although II did find Kruzhlinin on Saturday to bail me out.

    I hear the the stable think Knightly Pleasure, 3.45 LP, will go close. 9/2.

    1. Yep I think he knew that I had tipped him, the only explanation! Joins the long list of my fancies to have run no sort of race. Strange as he was travelling into it in a way that suggested he would go close. Then he stopped. Winner clearly had no problem with ground or trip, but was happy to take him on at 7/4. His SP was a bit better at 10/3.

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