FREE DAILY POST: 18/11/16 (COMPLETE)

complete…Jumps angles + tip x2 + Dundalk stats…

TIP Summary

2.45 Ascot – Fox Appeal- 2 point win – 9/2

3.20 Ascot- Alternatif – 1 point win – 13/2

Write ups etc below…

***

The irony…

Well ironically on a day that a certain comment caused quite a stir (well it didn’t really but all comments on here are welcome, even moronic ones) I have given you micro systems ‘systematic’ backers a very good reason to swear at me, albeit please use a ‘softer’ swear word than some of those on Thursday’s post… 🙂 

One Pam Sly… gulp…many moons ago (2016 flat season generally) I/we followed an angle that looked at her fillies/mares. It had a poor 2016- 3/25, -10 points or so, and as the flat season ended I quietly dropped it from what was a busy systems rosta. But it was a duel purpose system and her stats in NH are much better- as I discovered when looking after a ‘qualifier’ won at Market Rasen at 22/1 (I don’t want to look to see whether it was bigger the evening before, I fear it may have been 33s) The race was horrible to watch. She carried none of my money. And the system is still in HRB. She was 10/42,17p in NH races under the rules, 3/9 this year. No reason to stop posting those. Idiot.

So, apologies for that but I try to be transparent and I know one of you noticed the winner go in! Howler. So, I will start posting them back up and no doubt a long losing run will follow. It is an ‘ignore the horses form’ type system. Damn. Hopefully some of you tracked the system and backed it anyway- appears James did, well done.

Sometimes I must drive you mad.

Moving on, swiftly…

 

TIPS

2.45 Ascot 

FOX APPEAL – 2 point win – 9/2 (BetFred/PP/WH/Others) 4/1 (others)*UP

Oh dear- crash bang wallop at the bottom of the cliff I lie. In tatters. It did all look too good to be true but that was a shocker. No excuse there whatsoever. What a tricky horse. No idea when you could ever back him again, and I doubt I will be. That was an expensive race for my pocket – Present Man went off a nice 9/2, much better than 5/2! The market eh!? 

Well I should put my money where my mouth is really. I have put 2 points (well 2.5 if I am being honest) on this one and managed to grab 6/1 with William Hill. 9/2 is still plenty fair enough.

This is last chance saloon for him and my money. IF he jumps cleanly here, and it is an if, I think he could hack up here. Well, he should do, if he retains any ability.

The case for him is so strong, hence the 2 points. 1/5,3 places at Ascot, in handicaps… 0/3,2p Ascot, 3/7 good to soft, soft is fine, likes cut, 1/2 2m5f (this is his ideal trip I think) 3/4,3 places OR under 140. 3/5,4p 11 runners or fewer, smaller the field size the better, 3/10,5p RH. 0/4,2 p 11-12 on back. He is on OR 138. Just 3 runs ago he came a decent enough second at Newbury in a C2 off 143. 31/10/15 he came a 6l 3rd here in a Grade 3 off 152. 152! Jan 2015 over CD he came a 1.3l second in a C2 off 149. He is a Grade 2 Novice Chase winner.

Trainer is 1/10,5 places last 14 days and had another winner at Wincanton on Thursday. No problems there. Lavelle is 1/4,2 places with Johnson up last 730 days.

He just looks bombproof. His jumping issues are linked to field size I think/going LH and getting little help from the saddle. I find it interesting that Johnson is called upon her and that they have waited 41 days since his last run for a race at Ascot. He could bolt up here and in a few weeks return and still be well handicapped to win in a higher class.

It is too good to be true. I know that. You know that. We all know he will unseat 🙂 But I can’t resist the 2 pointer at those odds. I just can’t. I hope he does as he should here.

Of the rest… well Present Man and The Clock Leary are now worth opposing on price alone. The latter was 9/2 but is now 5/2 generally. He will be fit. No problems there. I have money on him at 9/2 to cover my Fox bet. Hopefully one goes in! Anyway,he does have stamina to prove and he was awful last season. It takes a big leap of faith at 5/2 I think. He should go well but doesn’t have the class of a tip top Fox Appeal but could be more to come. 5/2 is short enough for Present Man albeit he is unexposed and no shock winner either. Cut in the going is a question and he won’t get an easy lead here, if he is sent to the front.

Wings Attract and Go Conquer have fitness questions albeit both again are unexposed. Jonjo is slowly finding form but on the whole they have looked like in need of the run. Cadoudoff has unseated and fell on his last two starts and has questions now. I would like to think the three at the top of the market will be too strong for him here. He does also have a stamina question. Rothman has been going ok but I don’t think will be good enough, now 0/6,0 p C3.

PACE…even that looks set up for Fox Appeal…4 of these can get on with it, a couple more can push. He should be able to sit just behind, find his jumping feet and cruise into it over the last couple- big jump at the last, job done!

If only it was that easy, but it has the potential to be!

 

3.20 Ascot

Alternatif – 1 point win – 13/2 (Bet365/BetBright) 6/1 (general) UP 9/2

*well another blow out day- maybe I need to read some more books! – He was awful there- as it happens it wouldn’t have mattered as the fav had plenty in hand and made a mockery of his mark – clearly not a fav to take on! Still, it would have been nice for Alternatif to have run some sort of race to justify support. No excuse. 

Another poor day. Onto tomorrow. 

 

Why Him? 

He looks the most interesting in this race to me at the prices. He is unexposed enough, 1/8 over fence, is only 6, comes here after a Pipe opener at Cheltenham where he ran well in a decent race- better than this one. Tom didn’t get after him for a while, just hands and heels, and he crept into it, jumping well on the whole. He did ride him more vigorously a couple out where he responded for pressure before the lack of run may have caught up with him. But it was one of those seasonal reappearances where they ‘go forwards’ rather than fade backwards,if that makes sense. He won an ok race at Fontwell last season and he did it a shade cosily. He carried top weight there and was giving 11lbs to Pete The Feet – and you get the impression he could have won a lot further. To travel that well, with that weight, in that ground, aged 5 shows he has a touch of class for me. He went close in a couple of C2 handicap hurdles before going chasing. He is hardy enough for this test and will appreciate the cut in the going and wont mind if it gets softer.

There is no reason why he shouldn’t progress further this year and there could be more to come. He does usually track the pace which may be ideal in this race – he is rarely held up right out the back and i hope they don’t do that. It is hard to make up too much ground over fences here. Pipe is ‘only’ 1/12,4 places in handicap chases at the track last 5 years over this distance- but that is ok….of some interest he is 0/3,2 places in this race. I wonder if this 16k pot has been the early season target for this one. I hope so.

I didn’t dive too deep into the trends but 7/10 won LTO (good for fav) 8/10 Top 4 (good for us) 9/10 Aged 6-8, 9/10 ran within the last 60 days (both ticks there) … those that had 0 season runs are 0/19, 1 place, ran 121-365 days ago, 1/25 (small numbers but fitness guaranteed is no bad thing)

Longsdon/Hobbs/Moore/Jonjo (all with runners in this) have won the race once each which is of some interest.

The horse looks like he needs kidding a bit- I am not 100% sure he puts it all in after the last/when asked but the jury is out on that. He responded at both Fontwell when he won, and he did keep responding LTO. There is an unknown about going RH over fences also- but he just hasn’t raced RH so hard to judge. Fontwell switches so I suppose some experience. Hopefully he bolts up here and then maybe they map out a festival target for him.

He looked a fair enough price at 13/2 and on what he has done, fitness, potential still, i thought 9/2, 4/1 may have been fairer…

Of the rest…

Well a lot of these ‘could’ fall into a fitness hole and I don’t really want to be with any coming here after a long break. Lamb or Cod has a bit to prove after so long off albeit Hobbs stats ok on that front with Handicap Chasers- not quite Nicholls but decent. He is 9 though now. If 100% he would clearly go well but Hobbs isn’t firing on all cylinders as he was. 7s is only fair, without feeling generous to me. Could prove me wrong. Jonjo is still in and out and in any case most of his have been needing their first run. His may also be too inexperienced for a race like this and has yet to win a chase, this being only his second one. He has potential. Daveron is in the unexposed category also and is stepping up in trip- so he has a stamina Q and Pauling’s have been needing it in general also this year. Blame It On My Roots is unexposed but I think needs it really testing and I suspect she will grind to victory in a muddy staying chase at some point this year. She just gallops and stays it seems, and there could be more to come this season. This won’t be testing enough I feel, and may need the run.

Horatio Hornblower – well he is unexposed but fitness is the question, now 0/4,1 p 121-365 days and while he has ran ok once, he still runs as if needing it. Trainer is in form and if he is fit enough he is a clear danger.  Leo Luna has a few negative profile pointers for me, a few too many (albeit a TTP stats pick in this, gulp) but he is now 0/10,2p RH all races (0/4,0p in chases) and 0/4,0p 121-365 days – he usually needs the run and also goes without the usual tongue tie here. He wasn’t in the best form when last seen either. I think there are solid reasons to leave him and he can prove me wrong. No Buts has a stamina question, may not be good enough and is now 0/6,0p 12+ runners. 0/5,0p RH. Happy to leave. Cloudy Bob looks a bit out of sorts and in any case hasn’t been one to rely on. Tinker Time looks out of sorts also.

So, that leaves the favourite… Minella Daddy can clearly win this but is short enough for one that won a 4 runner beginners chase at FFos Las. One of those he beat has since come out and bolted up, in another weak race. Some substance to the form. But on price alone I can take him on I think. He could win. He might win. That win came in first time blinkers and they may not work again. He isn’t wearing them to look good.

Ready Token and St Dominick looked ok at the prices. The former is the second TTP stats pick in this that I have left. This is a step up in class- much deeper/better C3 than the one he won at Warwick, Longsdon maybe going off the boil a bit now- and that PU concerns me. He did make a bad error and he may not have stayed- but I should learn to stop making too many excuses for poor run- esp as bar a drop back in trip he isn’t doing too much different – unlike Achimota as Chepstow there is no headgear coming on etc. He is a grand jumper on his day and will try and bowl along. If he gets an easy lead I may be concerned. He could out-run 14s but I think something that could have more class could beat him. But if Pipe’s fails, and so does the fav, then this becomes very open indeed. Not sure if I am talking myself into a ‘just in case’ saver. He is now on a career high mark and has it to prove in  a race this deep.

St Dominick- well he is unexposed and has run well after a break before- that is why he was higher up on my list than others. But he may well need heavy to be seen to his best, and that race he won at Exeter was weak- 0/18 of those to have run from it since. He needs more here but he could out-run his odds.  A place wouldn’t shock me as many of these could fade needing the run, I am not sure if he will. Were he to be backed I may take more note. All winners of this 16/1 or shorter, with bigger priced ones not doing much. He is also last in the HRB total ratings so we shall see if they are a good guide for those right at the bottom again! I don’t think he is good enough to beat an on-song Alternatif but we shall see how he goes.

(update, some money appears to be coming, arguably at the prices he is the EW bet in the race maybe…) He is the ‘biggie clanger’ I think, or the most likely to leave me wondering why I didn’t tip for 1/2 point. 

 

PACE… Ready Token will try and lead. I would hope Leo Luna takes him on- but on seasonal reappearances he has been held up the last few years, giving impression he isn’t there to win. He is best when leading. I hope they take each other on. No Buts can be up there but may be held onto to get the trip. Hopefully Tom Scu just sits behind the pace.

Right, that will do, enough there to bore you with I’m sure!

 

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio (LIVE TEST)

Chase

2.45 Ascot- The Clock Leary (Williams 60+ days)

3.20 Ascot – Mustmeetalady (how very true!) (Oh,hnc c debut 🙂 )

 

V Williams Chasers

2.45 Ascot – The Clock Leary (16/1< guide)

 

Tom George Chasers

2.20 Ffos Las – Behind The Wire

 

Kerry Lee Chasers

3.30 Ffos Las – Mr Bachster (12/1< guide)

 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Not much else catching my eye today, not that we need any more. But if you like your evening action from Dundalk I think my stats throw up the following (remember you can get your free AW report HERE>>>)

7.30 – Poitin

8.30 – Haverlock Ellis

9.00 – Sixtyfiveroses / Royal Roslea (reserve I think)

***

That will be all for today, remember to let us know who you think is the best bet in the Betfair Chase..it’s a bit of fun but interesting nonetheless…

 

[poll id=”13″]

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

53 Responses

  1. Yeah, I’ve just had a point on Fox Appeal at 11/2 (Hills)…in my tracker after Ben Aitken flagged it up here. Conditions seemingly will be spot on (and he reckoned was well handicapped even before the latest drop)
    Paul

    1. Yep he is so well handicapped, managed to get on at 6s WH, just about quick enough. Had a good go at him. One last chance really, managed to get saver on VWs at 9/2. Hopefully one of them can win, but hope it is Fox Appeal. I tipped him the last day, and did last year at some point also. It has been a while since he had ideal conditions, as highlighted by Ben, but always convinced myself he could win outside of them. He will be out of excuses if he doesn’t go close here. Profiling wise,it doesn’t get any better than his chance here tomorrow. Too good to be true maybe…

      1. I’ve had a go also although sadly work got in the way of early prices. Are you actually putting him up as an official tip?

        1. If he stays around 9/2, 5/1 I might. I need to look at others properly albeit given I may have thrown 2.5 points at him at my Tipping level, I should probably tip him! Given me 15/20 mins. Don’t like to cut corners…

  2. Paddy Watch Day 6

    A nice return today on Infinite Sun

    Haydock 3.45 Global Stage 1 pt win 13/2 Bet365

    Running Total +14.75
    S/R 2/7

    1. Well done again Gerard, striking whilst the iron’s hot

      I left this one alone (always leave the wrong ones me!) as I didn’t see much hope given its flat-breeding (Sire was 41 NHF runs, 0 wins, 1 place)

      But Fergal evidently wins with whatever he fancies!

  3. I think everyone should read that post from Skree Skree.I think most people would identify with one thing,when things didn’t work out we tended to look at esternal forces rather than look inwards and examine our own failings.As Josh says,this blog is a journey and not a destination.Being here is a positive decision not to be in the 98% of people who lose money in the long term,and hopefully become self reliant.There are far more days of disappointment than joy,in this game.Most of our bets loose,thats the reality.This section of the blog is opinions,strategies and contributers ideas.My own are usually shite,with the odd good one that works,the only thing thats important really is.Am i happy win or lose to follow

  4. Gutted to have missed the value on the clock leary but took the odds available anyway. 2.00 Haydock Ami Desbois runs for the mcPherson 90 days system, no 50/1 shot this time tho only found 4s :-l

    1. That is very short now given his form last season and fact he has to prove he stays – way he won over 19f here suggest no problem and in this small field should be fine. But still, 9/4 feels tight – wouldn’t be surprised if he drifts out a bit come race time- these evening markets can be funny things. GL

    2. Hi James B….I took 15/2 on AD…so I’m happy….good shout this as I had totally missed it. I’ve done that couple of times lately….I also missed my Cornwallville yesterday…. I think just one other of our clan spotted it’s potential earlier in the year on turf. I just forgot to check my turf horses going on the AW…. silly old sod. lol.
      Anyway…a very good shout. Cheers.

  5. Gearoid180468 is right in the fact that we all have our day in the sun, that one winner that can give us joy, but, ultimately if you think your going to be driving a Ferrari within a couple of months then you are on the wrong train! Maybe one day….
    The joy for me has always been cheering one on that you know nobody else (apart from a select few that you have told), come round the last bend, jump the last and be 2 lengths clear going towards the line!
    It rarely happens ,but, when it does its a great feeling.
    It`s dealing with all the losers that maketh the betting man so to speak, being able to pick yourself up after all those losers is hard, but, do it we must, to prove not only to ourselves but the bookies too that we are not defeated, we live to fight another day!!
    I have been using the old dutching system and picking two horses in certain races, it went really well for me during the summer months,but, now the weather has turned it has all gone to pot and i went 28 runs without a winner , it`s just starting to kick back in again,but, what a horrible feeling i had that everything was caving in and the “What was i doing wrong??” started to kick in, i literally couldn`t buy a winner then Josh tipped VALADOM last week at Bangor and booom i was back on board, my own tipping had failed me, but, one winner is all we need to keep ticking over and restore our confidence, till the next time….
    I am not naiave enough to think i am going to win all the time,but, isn`t this game all about profit? I may have had 28 losers in a row, but, because i was over 80pts up from the summer, i was able to withstand the losses. The Gorious uncertainty strikes again!! Well done Josh and keep up the good work.

  6. Along with everyone else here I think Fox Appeal should be winning tomorrow (apart from the extra stone of expectations he now has on his back). The 15:20 looks tricky and a tentitive vote goes to Ready Token who’s running style should suit the track and ran very well for a long way at the Durham National before not quite staying the trip so a drop back will suit. The jockey has done well in several large field chases and is well worth his 3lb (actually won 2 of his last 4 handicap chases for the trainer). Hells Kitchen is in Mark Howard’s TOP 40 tomorrow and is meant to make an extremely good chaser so the 5/1 in the 13:35 at Ascot looks big off even weights. Finally over at Ffos Llas I think Red Devil Lads looks a good bet (even at current prices although gutted I missed the 12s) consider his and his trainer’s record at the track, his liking for small fields and the fact he runs well fresh. Fav has been running well but has yet to win at this level and looks a little short. Hopefully will be able to dictate from the front.

    1. BTW if anyone hasnt had the bet on Fox Appeal yet make sure you use William Hill for their excellent High 5 promotion

      1. Yep with you on Red Devils as a ttp pick also. 12s was he?? Thought 7s was good,that can’t have been around long. Should try and make all and hopefully last year a blip due to yard. He will put themy to.sword or fade tamely again at home straight. 7s worth the chance I think. As you say good record fresh. Likes the mud,easy lead,trainer form/stats. Hopefully Honeyballs dots up in the bumper also!

        Have had first look at 3.20 to return to it in moring. The Pipe horse was one catching my eye initially.

        1. Hi All/josh.

          I do like Alternatif for david pipe. notebook finisher dropping in distance and class. Also going soft or good to soft. am already on each way. any thoughts

        2. Yeah for all of 15 minutes. Should have grabbed the 9s but like you said earlier Ive learned not to rush these things. Pipe one was interesting but concerned that him and Scudamore are 1/12 over handicap chasers here in the past 5 years plus recently he’s been held up which wont help at Ascot. Dont think the trends really help since 7/10 have won LTO and 10/10 have had a run before which leaves the favourite and I cant have him particularly since they have a poor record in this race (2/12)

          1. Chester Barnes comments on the Pipe website – clearly some confidence. “David runs Alternatif in the 3.20pm race at Ascot, a three mile handicap chase. He has finished fourth on his last couple of starts and is back below his last winning mark, the ground will suit and he appears to hold leading claims under stable jockey Tom Scudamore.”

          2. Ah good. Yep I do think he has leading claims so nice to think they do too! Given he has only run 3 in this and 2 have gone close enough I would like to think this may have been a plan! We will know soon enough. GL

  7. Striking while iron is hot indeed Ali,the partnership has been steamrolling for last few months and O Brien has really been over achieving since,well i cant remember when he was last cold,doubt he can keep a 25% strike rate up indefinitely,but hopefully might be bit in front by the time 14 day cut off comes

  8. I am out of form this week and so don’t call me names if I do not pick winners. Matt G put up Tacenda, 4.05 FL, and now Josh gives it a good mention. Therefore I have had a bet at 9/2 in case the price drops? I have also copied some of you re Fox Appeal, although I did have it in my tracker, and had a bet at 4/1.

    For an outsider I like Gone with the Wind at 16/1 in the 5.45 NC. The distance of the race should suit.

    1. Yep Honeyballs a TTP stats pick initially but remembered reading something Matt put on geegeez about how they really like this one..His track record with NHF horses suggests this is one of target tracks for those there to win. Took 9/2 . May be backed but a few in here with interesting profiles/yards.

  9. A runner from Paul Ferguson’s 3 to follow (guest post on here) goes tomorrow

    Vintage Clouds in the 2.35 Hay

    A short-ish one at 7/2, but I think it’s worth the bet. Seems to be priced on its bare form at Carlisle, where I thought he ran very creditably, jumped well, especially given that Carlisle on good ground are unlikely to have suited (prime conditions appear to be Haydock in the mud – the total opposite! And he gets that tomorrow)

    1. Cheers Aallen much appreciated. He could really like this swamp and I had a go at that price, fitness should be spot on also. Will just keep galloping!

  10. Hay. 2:35 – Aqua Dude 7/1
    As with Hells Kitchen mentioned by Nick, AD is also in the Mark Howard top 40 and was also mentioned in his PP festival update where he was expected to run at Wetherby last week.

    Ascot 3:20 – Mustmeetalady 8/1
    Jonjo’s are still unpredictable, but this one has come up in a couple of my Hcp Chasers with no wins micro and he has had winners under the criteria. So happy to have a go at the price.

    Chris R.

  11. hi josh, regarding backing ACHIMOTA @ huge price, backed it due to having first time headgear, blinkers and tongue tie and turned out again quickly since last ran

    1. I thought that is what you may say- yep all made sense after the event haha. A perfectly logical reason to back him at a price, doing plenty differently. Well done again.

  12. 3.20 Ascot ….. Blameitalonmyroots : Lamb Or Cod : Leo Luna : Ready Token ; IMHO any one of these can win this race, all with good trainers especially Lamb Or Cod and hopefully the winner will come from one of them

    1. GL Norman, hopefully for you…hopefully for me they are all tailed off! 🙂 If Lamb doesn’t need the run he should be going very close here. Ready Token I can see. i can’t have the other two, unless this ground holding then Blameit may have a chance. Open enough race I suppose, esp if you want to take on top two, become very open.

      1. Well, at least Alternatif hits bottom 5 of one of the ratings columns with HRB ratings but it’s a bit high with the others so I have had a small bet on it, on your behalf !…..just in case , you understand cos’ it might w**

        Dandy Nicholls has 2 in the 5.45 Newcastle that might run well : also backed Beautiful Escape ( 4.15) & Pike Corner Cross (5.45)…..elsewhere, I like Rouquine Sauvage (2.20) and Cyrname (3.55)

        Small fields today, heavy rain and a mini-storm coming for the weekend….will only mean withdrawals for tomorrow……. but it will be just nice and sunny up here in the North for a walk by the seaside…

    1. Hi David… I have just checked in my system and it says your payments have expired. that is why you wont be able to access any members content. The last payment I received was on the 8th October, which covered you for next month… (you joined 8th August, paid, then Sept, paid, Oct, paid…then cancelled) If you didn’t mean to it could be because of funds in your Paypal account or you have got a new bank card or something and what is registered with Paypal has expired.
      You should still be able to log in with old details, just not access anything… in which case use the ‘renew subscription’ button to the right hand side.

      If none of that makes sense, email me… info@racingtoprofit.co.uk and we can sort it out via email.

      best
      Josh

      1. Had a problem with Paypal but joined up on the 9th November my login is still accepted but not able to access members info please check your records David

        1. Hi David,
          Sorry for these problems…Yep my system says expired… you joined again on the 9th and would have got 7 day free trial again… that expired two days ago and I have no record of receiving any payment in my paypal account on the 16th,17th or today from yourself. Looks like whatever problem you have may still exist but in you paypal account there shouldn’t be a payment of £10 since 16th- I haven’t received it my end and that is why system will have blocked you out.
          You can sign up again with renew subscription… and if you get double charged obviously I will refund you.
          Josh

  13. Hi Josh.
    Regarding nasty comment from yesterday.
    I have been following yor site for a while. I pick my own horses however I like your point of view and it boosts my confidence a lot when I pick the same as you do. You ae doing top work and don’t take any notice of twats who want to become a millionaire on betting.
    Anyway I like Fox Appeal! At 320 I’m on Blameitalonmyroots and Tinker Time.
    My tips are crap as Gazza knows 🙂
    Great website!!!
    Marcin

    1. Thanks Marcin… Ah i have someone to blame now if Fox Appeal loses haha.
      My main aim is to provide something of interest etc to get stuck into that you find a good read and that may help you make more profits etc. Also about creating a social environment – always a good nugget or two in the comments etc.
      And I back all the tips up with my own money , and I would quite like to turn my own tipping form around at some point for my own profit levels! Thankfully the TTP stats, Sept/oct trainers…and a few other angles moving forward have more than made up for my own personal dip!
      Glad you enjoy the ride!
      Josh

    1. Yep don’t disagree with that – looks best in a right old slog but seems hard enough work at Ascot and there is a fair bit of pace on. Fitness may be fine,11s is fair. Just wondered if something with more toe may do for her, but any backers should get run for a time.

    1. yea but i think we are looking for excuses there and I don’t think that is one. Suspect he wanted to get into a rhythm and seemed sensible pace- given how Present man won suggests they didn’t do too much up front. That really was a shocker. If Present Man had faded there may be more weight to the ‘doing too much theory’. Not sure why a horse sulks IF being near the front haha. I am done with him now, no doubt win at a decent price somewhere.

    1. Yes, James! Me too

      Went safe with a 1/2 point though, given the horse’s strange profile – wasnt sure if he wanted 2m, 3m, heavy ground or a bog!

      And given the drift (and Achimota’s non-jigging 33/1 shock) it looks like the McPherson’s dont know when they’re meant to win either

      1. I think James modified his from my original rules, and I should probably look at them again- but that winner qualified against the following…
        McPherson
        NH Handicap
        Horse Runs Last 90 Days: 0 or 1 only
        Horse Runs In National Hunt Handicap Race Type (so runs in hncp hurdles as today: between 0 and 1 (so unexposed effectively)

        Before today…
        16/74, 24 places, 21% win SR, +174 points profit… has odd monster drop in.

        These rules didn’t cover Achimota- you could remove horse runs in NH handicap type but profit now much greater I don’t think (well will be after Achimota, but win % sr drops a lot)

        james may have added couple more maybe…

        1. I’m using the version before that one Josh, think the only difference is that I use it for the jumps season only. I will check and post up the rules later if that helps? On a side note you may be able to help me, ages ago I emailed you about the mcPherson system and was wondering if you could have a look to see if I said what rules I had changed, I think one was win days bracket? It seems I have acidentily deleted it without writing it down in my book :'(

          1. Hi James, that will have long been deleted I think and couldn’t find it after a quick search. We will all have to look again!
            If you could post up whatever rules you have at some point, on the latest daily post, that would be great.

  14. Minella Daddy – gosh… he could be a good’un

    Add that to Henry Parry Morgan and the Bowens quite possibly have a couple of high class staying chasers

    1. yep, made 3/1, 5/2 look a rather good price there!! Ominous from some way out as he just went along with them at the front with no effort at all. Looks like they do have a nice pair there- travelled and jumped so well. Much too good for those. Very impressive for one so inexperienced.

      1. I guess that’s what happens when be both choose to ignore the trends. Lesson learnt until I forget it again at least. On to tomorrow.

        1. Hmm yes and no – I would like to think we all do ok on here in long run by siding with caution and having a bullish attitude to those around 5/2, 3/1 in a race like that – easy after they have won like that but that was only his second chase was it, won a 4 runner affair- had question over how he would handle a race like that, surrounded by horses, and whether blinkers would work again- they were valid questions at that price for me- as it turned out that was wrong- maybe a race to have left – but either way still doesn’t excuse for how poor selection was. Awful day! Red Devils Lad losing by a head topped it off really. And present man winning at 9/2. On we soldier.

          1. Neither did mine to be fair. Oh you’re spot on about not having it at the price I just meant going against those trends. Like you said maybe should have left it but that’s no fun.

  15. Hi Josh…it’s terrible to rub salt in wounds, but wouldn’t Sirop De Menthe [won 12/1] have been a bet last NH season for Lucy Gardner…. I backed her horses every time…..I just passed it by this term….

    1. Ah no salt Tony, maybe I would need to look- I dropped that old portfolio as was too simple and Gardner had a shocker last season, and avoided many many losers since i think – I reckon her horses were sick last season/most of year- if that is the case it is a yard to now watch as could have a few well handicapped. Used to be able to back all handicappers blind 12/1< I think- she did need new stock also, the same horses just kept appearing etc. One to watch. But yep, plenty salt in a gaping wound of a day!

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