2.45 Ascot – Fox Appeal- 2 point win – 9/2
3.20 Ascot- Alternatif – 1 point win – 13/2
Write ups etc below…
Well ironically on a day that a certain comment caused quite a stir (well it didn’t really but all comments on here are welcome, even moronic ones) I have given you micro systems ‘systematic’ backers a very good reason to swear at me, albeit please use a ‘softer’ swear word than some of those on Thursday’s post… 🙂
One Pam Sly… gulp…many moons ago (2016 flat season generally) I/we followed an angle that looked at her fillies/mares. It had a poor 2016- 3/25, -10 points or so, and as the flat season ended I quietly dropped it from what was a busy systems rosta. But it was a duel purpose system and her stats in NH are much better- as I discovered when looking after a ‘qualifier’ won at Market Rasen at 22/1 (I don’t want to look to see whether it was bigger the evening before, I fear it may have been 33s) The race was horrible to watch. She carried none of my money. And the system is still in HRB. She was 10/42,17p in NH races under the rules, 3/9 this year. No reason to stop posting those. Idiot.
So, apologies for that but I try to be transparent and I know one of you noticed the winner go in! Howler. So, I will start posting them back up and no doubt a long losing run will follow. It is an ‘ignore the horses form’ type system. Damn. Hopefully some of you tracked the system and backed it anyway- appears James did, well done.
Sometimes I must drive you mad.
Moving on, swiftly…
FOX APPEAL – 2 point win – 9/2 (BetFred/PP/WH/Others) 4/1 (others)*UP
Oh dear- crash bang wallop at the bottom of the cliff I lie. In tatters. It did all look too good to be true but that was a shocker. No excuse there whatsoever. What a tricky horse. No idea when you could ever back him again, and I doubt I will be. That was an expensive race for my pocket – Present Man went off a nice 9/2, much better than 5/2! The market eh!?
Well I should put my money where my mouth is really. I have put 2 points (well 2.5 if I am being honest) on this one and managed to grab 6/1 with William Hill. 9/2 is still plenty fair enough.
This is last chance saloon for him and my money. IF he jumps cleanly here, and it is an if, I think he could hack up here. Well, he should do, if he retains any ability.
The case for him is so strong, hence the 2 points. 1/5,3 places at Ascot, in handicaps… 0/3,2p Ascot, 3/7 good to soft, soft is fine, likes cut, 1/2 2m5f (this is his ideal trip I think) 3/4,3 places OR under 140. 3/5,4p 11 runners or fewer, smaller the field size the better, 3/10,5p RH. 0/4,2 p 11-12 on back. He is on OR 138. Just 3 runs ago he came a decent enough second at Newbury in a C2 off 143. 31/10/15 he came a 6l 3rd here in a Grade 3 off 152. 152! Jan 2015 over CD he came a 1.3l second in a C2 off 149. He is a Grade 2 Novice Chase winner.
Trainer is 1/10,5 places last 14 days and had another winner at Wincanton on Thursday. No problems there. Lavelle is 1/4,2 places with Johnson up last 730 days.
He just looks bombproof. His jumping issues are linked to field size I think/going LH and getting little help from the saddle. I find it interesting that Johnson is called upon her and that they have waited 41 days since his last run for a race at Ascot. He could bolt up here and in a few weeks return and still be well handicapped to win in a higher class.
It is too good to be true. I know that. You know that. We all know he will unseat 🙂 But I can’t resist the 2 pointer at those odds. I just can’t. I hope he does as he should here.
Of the rest… well Present Man and The Clock Leary are now worth opposing on price alone. The latter was 9/2 but is now 5/2 generally. He will be fit. No problems there. I have money on him at 9/2 to cover my Fox bet. Hopefully one goes in! Anyway,he does have stamina to prove and he was awful last season. It takes a big leap of faith at 5/2 I think. He should go well but doesn’t have the class of a tip top Fox Appeal but could be more to come. 5/2 is short enough for Present Man albeit he is unexposed and no shock winner either. Cut in the going is a question and he won’t get an easy lead here, if he is sent to the front.
Wings Attract and Go Conquer have fitness questions albeit both again are unexposed. Jonjo is slowly finding form but on the whole they have looked like in need of the run. Cadoudoff has unseated and fell on his last two starts and has questions now. I would like to think the three at the top of the market will be too strong for him here. He does also have a stamina question. Rothman has been going ok but I don’t think will be good enough, now 0/6,0 p C3.
PACE…even that looks set up for Fox Appeal…4 of these can get on with it, a couple more can push. He should be able to sit just behind, find his jumping feet and cruise into it over the last couple- big jump at the last, job done!
If only it was that easy, but it has the potential to be!
Alternatif – 1 point win – 13/2 (Bet365/BetBright) 6/1 (general) UP 9/2
*well another blow out day- maybe I need to read some more books! – He was awful there- as it happens it wouldn’t have mattered as the fav had plenty in hand and made a mockery of his mark – clearly not a fav to take on! Still, it would have been nice for Alternatif to have run some sort of race to justify support. No excuse.
Another poor day. Onto tomorrow.
He looks the most interesting in this race to me at the prices. He is unexposed enough, 1/8 over fence, is only 6, comes here after a Pipe opener at Cheltenham where he ran well in a decent race- better than this one. Tom didn’t get after him for a while, just hands and heels, and he crept into it, jumping well on the whole. He did ride him more vigorously a couple out where he responded for pressure before the lack of run may have caught up with him. But it was one of those seasonal reappearances where they ‘go forwards’ rather than fade backwards,if that makes sense. He won an ok race at Fontwell last season and he did it a shade cosily. He carried top weight there and was giving 11lbs to Pete The Feet – and you get the impression he could have won a lot further. To travel that well, with that weight, in that ground, aged 5 shows he has a touch of class for me. He went close in a couple of C2 handicap hurdles before going chasing. He is hardy enough for this test and will appreciate the cut in the going and wont mind if it gets softer.
There is no reason why he shouldn’t progress further this year and there could be more to come. He does usually track the pace which may be ideal in this race – he is rarely held up right out the back and i hope they don’t do that. It is hard to make up too much ground over fences here. Pipe is ‘only’ 1/12,4 places in handicap chases at the track last 5 years over this distance- but that is ok….of some interest he is 0/3,2 places in this race. I wonder if this 16k pot has been the early season target for this one. I hope so.
I didn’t dive too deep into the trends but 7/10 won LTO (good for fav) 8/10 Top 4 (good for us) 9/10 Aged 6-8, 9/10 ran within the last 60 days (both ticks there) … those that had 0 season runs are 0/19, 1 place, ran 121-365 days ago, 1/25 (small numbers but fitness guaranteed is no bad thing)
Longsdon/Hobbs/Moore/Jonjo (all with runners in this) have won the race once each which is of some interest.
The horse looks like he needs kidding a bit- I am not 100% sure he puts it all in after the last/when asked but the jury is out on that. He responded at both Fontwell when he won, and he did keep responding LTO. There is an unknown about going RH over fences also- but he just hasn’t raced RH so hard to judge. Fontwell switches so I suppose some experience. Hopefully he bolts up here and then maybe they map out a festival target for him.
He looked a fair enough price at 13/2 and on what he has done, fitness, potential still, i thought 9/2, 4/1 may have been fairer…
Of the rest…
Well a lot of these ‘could’ fall into a fitness hole and I don’t really want to be with any coming here after a long break. Lamb or Cod has a bit to prove after so long off albeit Hobbs stats ok on that front with Handicap Chasers- not quite Nicholls but decent. He is 9 though now. If 100% he would clearly go well but Hobbs isn’t firing on all cylinders as he was. 7s is only fair, without feeling generous to me. Could prove me wrong. Jonjo is still in and out and in any case most of his have been needing their first run. His may also be too inexperienced for a race like this and has yet to win a chase, this being only his second one. He has potential. Daveron is in the unexposed category also and is stepping up in trip- so he has a stamina Q and Pauling’s have been needing it in general also this year. Blame It On My Roots is unexposed but I think needs it really testing and I suspect she will grind to victory in a muddy staying chase at some point this year. She just gallops and stays it seems, and there could be more to come this season. This won’t be testing enough I feel, and may need the run.
Horatio Hornblower – well he is unexposed but fitness is the question, now 0/4,1 p 121-365 days and while he has ran ok once, he still runs as if needing it. Trainer is in form and if he is fit enough he is a clear danger. Leo Luna has a few negative profile pointers for me, a few too many (albeit a TTP stats pick in this, gulp) but he is now 0/10,2p RH all races (0/4,0p in chases) and 0/4,0p 121-365 days – he usually needs the run and also goes without the usual tongue tie here. He wasn’t in the best form when last seen either. I think there are solid reasons to leave him and he can prove me wrong. No Buts has a stamina question, may not be good enough and is now 0/6,0p 12+ runners. 0/5,0p RH. Happy to leave. Cloudy Bob looks a bit out of sorts and in any case hasn’t been one to rely on. Tinker Time looks out of sorts also.
So, that leaves the favourite… Minella Daddy can clearly win this but is short enough for one that won a 4 runner beginners chase at FFos Las. One of those he beat has since come out and bolted up, in another weak race. Some substance to the form. But on price alone I can take him on I think. He could win. He might win. That win came in first time blinkers and they may not work again. He isn’t wearing them to look good.
Ready Token and St Dominick looked ok at the prices. The former is the second TTP stats pick in this that I have left. This is a step up in class- much deeper/better C3 than the one he won at Warwick, Longsdon maybe going off the boil a bit now- and that PU concerns me. He did make a bad error and he may not have stayed- but I should learn to stop making too many excuses for poor run- esp as bar a drop back in trip he isn’t doing too much different – unlike Achimota as Chepstow there is no headgear coming on etc. He is a grand jumper on his day and will try and bowl along. If he gets an easy lead I may be concerned. He could out-run 14s but I think something that could have more class could beat him. But if Pipe’s fails, and so does the fav, then this becomes very open indeed. Not sure if I am talking myself into a ‘just in case’ saver. He is now on a career high mark and has it to prove in a race this deep.
St Dominick- well he is unexposed and has run well after a break before- that is why he was higher up on my list than others. But he may well need heavy to be seen to his best, and that race he won at Exeter was weak- 0/18 of those to have run from it since. He needs more here but he could out-run his odds. A place wouldn’t shock me as many of these could fade needing the run, I am not sure if he will. Were he to be backed I may take more note. All winners of this 16/1 or shorter, with bigger priced ones not doing much. He is also last in the HRB total ratings so we shall see if they are a good guide for those right at the bottom again! I don’t think he is good enough to beat an on-song Alternatif but we shall see how he goes.
(update, some money appears to be coming, arguably at the prices he is the EW bet in the race maybe…) He is the ‘biggie clanger’ I think, or the most likely to leave me wondering why I didn’t tip for 1/2 point.
PACE… Ready Token will try and lead. I would hope Leo Luna takes him on- but on seasonal reappearances he has been held up the last few years, giving impression he isn’t there to win. He is best when leading. I hope they take each other on. No Buts can be up there but may be held onto to get the trip. Hopefully Tom Scu just sits behind the pace.
Right, that will do, enough there to bore you with I’m sure!
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio (LIVE TEST)
2.45 Ascot- The Clock Leary (Williams 60+ days)
3.20 Ascot – Mustmeetalady (how very true!) (Oh,hnc c debut 🙂 )
V Williams Chasers
2.45 Ascot – The Clock Leary (16/1< guide)
Tom George Chasers
2.20 Ffos Las – Behind The Wire
Kerry Lee Chasers
3.30 Ffos Las – Mr Bachster (12/1< guide)
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Not much else catching my eye today, not that we need any more. But if you like your evening action from Dundalk I think my stats throw up the following (remember you can get your free AW report HERE>>>)
7.30 – Poitin
8.30 – Haverlock Ellis
9.00 – Sixtyfiveroses / Royal Roslea (reserve I think)
That will be all for today, remember to let us know who you think is the best bet in the Betfair Chase..it’s a bit of fun but interesting nonetheless…