The following report is now complete and can be accessed when logged in, from within the Exclusive Downloads section to the left hand side, where it will always reside…
Those of you who have stayed beyond the free trial period and made your first payment (either monthly or annual) should now have access to the ‘Exclusive Downloads’ section to the left hand side- when you are logged in. That has the link to the main TTP report in it, which you can use as you please. If you cannot see that section then I have problems my end that I will need to fix. If you cannot access it please so say.
Just the one meeting from Exeter on Tuesday…
Purple N Gold (micro – age) UP
NOTE: Pipes only going ok. He usually sparks into life in November, if all is well. 3/26,6 places in the last 14 days. I mean I have made a clanger or two in the last few days, but surely on all known evidence and recent form this one doesn’t have a chance. I won’t be backing him and will just stare bewildered into the abyss if he manages to win this. If he does, I won’t ever trust Tom Scus judgement again! I think he needs at least 5 to run nowhere near their best here to go close. 33s is a decent EW price but I wont be playing him, hoping he grabs a distant 3rd- not impossible I suppose but I wont be playing him.
Caulfields Venture (hncp c) WON 7/1
NOTE: Lavelle ‘in form’ 1/9,5 places last 14 days, they are going well enough. I fancied this one the last day over CD where he drifted alarmingly pre race. He had a good record fresh and I wonder if that meant he may have needed it. In any case he ran ok, maybe not responding to the blinkers as hoped. The visor returns here. He isn’t getting any younger now though and always open to attack from younger legs. This is a race I will ponder in depth in the morning. I am also starting to go off Jacob over fences- I don’t know what it is but I don’t like how he is riding in chases at the moment- not sure if he lacks confidence but he just ‘lets’ horses jump too often for me, giving them little encouragement or confidence. He needs to watch Paddy Brennan for tips on how to boot one over a fence. Still, that is just a personal view, he may well ride a cracker here! Rarely do I let a jockey put me off a horse if I like the price etc. Conditions are fine for the horse.
Sun Wild Life (all hncps + hncp c) UP
NOTE: trainer 1/6,2 places last 30 days. He is also just 4/49, 11 places with all runners 60+ days rest. That figure is 1/20,3 places in handicap chases last 5 years. Horse is 0/3,0 places 60+ days. He was 11l 4th in this race on his return last year, off 6lb higher, on soft. It looks like he has a preference for soft but has run well on Good. Some pondering for me on his chance, he is ‘only’ 6/1. He doesn’t win very often but if was 100% fit is good enough to have a say.
Gary Charm (micro age) UP
NOTE: Same Pipe stats as above. This french winner is hard to weigh up on recent form. He was going ok LTO before unseating. Tom Scu picks him from the three which may be some indication. Stamina an unknown- yet to prove he can’t stay I suppose but all French form up to around 19f.
For N Against (micro age) UP
NOTE: I left him last time over CD and given jockey preferences, and the balance of form, suspect I will do so again. Him and Skylander look to have plenty on here…
Skylander (micro age) UP
NOTE: he was also left LTO as well by me. His recent chase form, including over CD LTO leaves him with a few questions to answer now I think. As I said I will be looking at this race in the morning in the free post- albeit my tips in those chases haven’t been too much of a guide! I think the first three of this list are the place to focus, on this post anyway. Famous last words.
Absolutely Bygones (micro TJC) UP
NOTE: trainer 0/2,0 places last 30 days. Not much to go on there. Horse is 0/5,2 places after breaks 60+ days, can run well and is a CD winner. His best rules form has been in a bog, but his recent ok PTP form was on a decent surface. Market may guide. Made return here in Nov 2014 and only just got run out of it on Heavy. If handling the ground, back down to last winning mark. Certainly could play a leading role. Only raced on Good twice under rules so hard to say he won’t handle it.
Clum Counsellor (hncp h) WON 6/1
NOTE: trainer in form, 2/6,2 places last 14 days. Ran well here LTO where I left him – gulp,maybe a sign- and he very nearly won. Based on how he went there this slight step up in trip could help. Same jockey is on and in what is a shocker of a race, you would like to think IF he repeated that run here would have chance. Clearly a level where most are unpredictable but hopefully he can build on that promise.
My View: At this stage I am personally more than comfortable leaving Purple N Gold, For N Against and Skylander. I would be disappointed if either of those were good enough to win. They don’t have an ‘Antony’ profile and all look rather exposed/not good enough on recent form. The other three in that chase need some attention but on paper/profile you couldn’t rule any out. The final two look to have a decent enough chance and look worthy of some support…
Some final thoughts on the 3.20 Chase – Caulfield’s Venture is the main one in this race for me and I have tipped him for one point win on the Free post, you can read my write up there. I can’t have For N Against and Skylander on what they have done recently, and will go down as a clunker if either wins. Sun Wildlife has a chance- I have left him based on his price in context of a few questions he has to answer- mainly fitness + going. He could win but at 5s/6s I was happy to leave, were he 12s+ that may have been different. That leaves Gary Charm and I really don’t want to say anything to put you off him if you like his chance. He has questions to answer BUT, hasn’t proved he wont stay, hasn’t proved he won’t handle the ground and hasn’t proved that the handicapper has him. Scu picks him – I wouldn’t be shocked if he runs an ok race here-some signs of market life would have me concerned as at this stage I was happy to leave him. Unlike Antony though – the benchmark for howlers- he isn’t in winning form and he isn’t in the unexposed/lightly raced, could be anything category. He also isn’t a double figure price.
So, do with that as you please!
Good luck with whatever you back.