FREE DAILY POST: 01/11/16 (complete)

 

Thoughts with Jim Crowley, Freddy Tylicki and their families after that horrific incident at Kempton. Both being treated for spinal injuries. Fingers crossed. Puts everything into perspective somewhat.

***

 

TIPS

3.20 Exeter

Caulfield’s Venture – 1 point win –  WON 7/1 SP …13/2 / 6/1 (both general, money back free bet offer PP 13/2)

Well bloody hell, a winner at last! That was a joy to watch all the way round really and credit to Jacob, i have given him some stick but he gave that one a peach there- super judgement of pace having tried to lead and sat when Johnson took it up- he jumped well on the whole albeit he does know his way around there. I have always said you should never let a jockey put you off if you like the horse/price. Still, I hope he never rides Fox Appeal again! 🙂 Quite happy with how I read that albeit the second wasn’t high enough up in the dangers list, can always improve! I did say watch the market and he collapsed from 14s to 9/2- he was there to win and ran as such- the money seems to be right with the Dartnall yard and esp when Schofield is on- that’s why he wasn’t on Sun Wild Life then. Happy with how I read the rest of the runners- track position and jumping has won that race, as is often the case in 3m+ chases. That lifts the tipping mood. 

 

 

Why Him?

Well I tipped/backed him the last day for much the same reasons and I can’t see why I should leave him here at what looks a decent price to me. He drifted somewhat alarmingly the last day which suggested he would either need the run and/or it was clear the blinkers may be upsetting him. I think it may be the former as until about three from home he travelled well enough before being left behind -but rather than going backwards,which is never the best of signs, he did plug on into 3rd. It should be noted that the two in front of him were young/progressive horses who clearly had a bit in hand also. EASY STREET…. came second there and should enter the notebooks- he was given too much to do by Coleman and if they given him a more prominent ride, or a race with loads of pace where it might collapse, his turn shouldn’t be far away.

So, there is a possibility that CV comes on for that last run and if that is the case he wont be far away. That was only his second run in around a year also having been PU before that so maybe he needed it. For a 10 year old he is lightly enough raced. The Visor returns also, and that was a positive given he is proven in it and clearly changes of equipment usually have the desired affect.

He is 3/4,4 places at the track, has yet to run a bad race here, and also races prominently. He should try and track For N Against again here, being in the perfect spot to pounce as, touch wood, that one fades back through the field again. The final big tick is the ground- it is good, good to firm here, ‘watered’- it suggests it is like a road again- in this race last year blog followers backed the 16/1 winner- the first qualifier for V Williams in November for our micro system- that was run in a bog- some rain would now be welcome. And that is another aside…horses that have form in March-October say may have a pattern of dropping off in Nov/Dec- usually as the ground turns to Soft I suspect- as yet there isn’t much sign of that so those types may keep performing.

Anyway, the ground- well he relished good to firm- I don’t think I appreciated how firm it was at Ascot on Sat, just focusing on ‘good’- Buckhorn Timothy couldn’t go the pace and didn’t look to enjoy it, and over that trip A Good Skin didn’t seem to pick up either having travelled well. Having backed two ‘proven in conditions’ it appears as though I did the opposite! Howler. There is no such concern with this one and I think he is the only one who is properly proven on this ground, at this class over fences. When asked he will pick up- or he should. When others are they may not put down fully and the pace on this ground may take some out of their jumping comfort zone. Lavelle is also ‘in form’ 1/9,5 places last 14 days.

I am starting to go off Jacob over fences but not enough to put me off backing this one. I just wish he would have more confidence in himself and the horses he is riding. When he asks them up, and boots them into a fence, they usually ping it. When he sits there motionless and ‘lets’ them jump errors start to creep in. A confident ride please Daryl…

So, that’s him. Happy to give him one more go….

Dangers…

I was reluctant to dive in with him albeit close to 1.5 points due to the firm in the going. But, there are a couple of main dangers…

Silver Commander- he is still lightly raced over fences and dotted up the last day-albeit that was a 4 runner race without loads of depth. I just can’t take 5/1 | 9/2 on a horse that has 570 days off- he isn’t certain to relish this ground, and this is the toughest chase he has faced for me. Jumping etc will be under pressure. More than happy to applaud a superb training performance if he takes this -he could have loads in hand. But he is 5s, and not 10s+.

By The Boadwalk- i thought long and hard about making him a 1/2 point bet, or 1 point on both- but the ‘firm’ has put me off. He won a shade cosily the last day on what was rain softened ground and there was plenty of good to soft around to my eye. His past form and his action suggests he may not like a road. I suspect he may struggle to hold his position and be in the latter third here, and his jumping may come under some pressure. It is his first run at the track also. That run at Wincanton on a road puts me off a tad albeit it was after a break and his odds suggest that was how he was going to run. Still, his best form is on ‘good’ at worse. He hasn’t fully proved he won’t handle this going and is in superb form. He could improve again for that win, although I also have mu doubts as to how good that race really was. But he is fit and in form, as is his trainer. IF he handles the ground, he will be bang there. That was the dilemma.

Sun Wild Life – well he has a chance but I don’t like his price in the context of the break- he ran ok in this race last year on reappearance but it suggests he can come on for the run. Now 0/2,0 places 121-365 days off and the trainer doesn’t have the best of records with horses after 60+ days off either. There was also a ground niggle- his best form has come in soft and there has to be a question over how lively this ground is. I also though Schofield may have got the leg up- has ridden him before, inc in this race- if he thought he had a great chance. Market suggests he is going to run a good race but given those doubts above, 5s again feels short enough.

Fort Worth – deserves a mention after his last run, albeit the winner din’t run well NTO. He is held up usually and keeps placing – again his price doesn’t leap out at me, even more so in the context of Jonjos form… 2/43,7 places last 14 days, and he is only 3/31,9 places here in handicap chases the last 5 years. He is unexposed enough but I was happy to leave him at his odds. He will be hoping the leaders come back, and I am hoping that Caulfields Venture wont be, esp on this going.

I can’t have any of the rest really. Gary Charm could hack up here- he could- but I am not tempted, even at 9s. He started racing when he was 3 in France, you could actually view him as an exposed 10 year old,(compared to British counterparts who mostly don’t start getting going properly until age 5+) having had 30+ career starts already. All of his best french form was in soft/heavy and under 20f. There is a stamina question as well as a wellbeing one given recent runs. He unseated the last day quite a way from home. Scu picks him from the three which may be some indication. He is hard to get a read on. If he stayed, and if he handled the ground, and if he jumped better, he would have a chance. A few too many ifs for me. Pipes are only going ‘ok’ also , and like Jonjo he doesn’t do that well here with handicap chasers- 3/35,9 places last 5 years. This could be a lenient mark and if his price crumbles I will watch this from behind the couch.

Pipe’s other two have a few too many questions and look like ‘summer form’ horses- they are also both badly out of form and on their last two runs each I don’t think you would want to be wading in here. There are plenty of in form, and more progressive chasers in here and surely too many for one of these to take this. Skylander’s last 4 chases have been abject and maybe he doesn’t like the chasing game- his stamina could be stretched over fences here also. They change the headgear again but I see no reason why he should improve on his last run here. Happy to be very wrong on him…gulp.

Dreamsoftheatre – I don’t think he will be good enough against this lot albeit he will relish the ground- and that could see him run a good race I suppose. He won a summer C2 at Cartmel, but if you ignore that he is 0/13,2 places in class 3 contests. Also 0/5,0 places 61-121 days rest and has all those jonjo stats to overcome also. Dancing Shadow can clout a fence, is now 0/16 in career and has the break to overcome. He could run an ok race and the market may guide, but there are plenty of more proven chasers in here who should have his measure. If he jumps, and if he is race fit, he handles conditions well enough, albeit again the ‘firm’ is a question having said that.

So, that is the lot. More than happy to take one more stab on this one- it could be the last time I ever back him- the ground may go soon enough, and if it does he will be 11 next year- still, always the Veteran’s chases to target I suppose and he is still lightly raced for his age.

Good luck whatever you go with. My form, particularly in chases on a sound surface, has been very poor- to the point where it suggests I am not approaching them in the right way and my current approach is missing something. We shall see how this one gets on!

***

 

 

JUMPS ANGLES

NOTE: Well, what may be the busiest period has now ended as we move into November. There was plenty of action with the Sept/Oct trainers. There will be a results post this week, inc Sept/Oct trainers who ended on a high on Monday with another couple of winners. I think collectively they may be around the 70+ points mark, using morning odds. Albeit figures will differ.

From now on there is the handicap hurdle/chase portfolio to track, the other micro systems, George/Heskin and the odd Fanshawe selection. Oh, and Venetia Williams, but she is yet to have a runner since I don’t know when. They can be found in the Free Reports/Systems tab above. I do need to add more detail to the handicap hurdle/chase report also as promised- that kind of job always gets bumped to the bottom of my to do list but it will get done 🙂

Right…

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio 

Chase

2.20 Exet- Pain Au Chocolat (hnc c debut) UP

3.20 Exet- Gary Charm – (Pipe, 11/1< best as a guide) UP

 

OTHER

J Fanshawe Kempton

7.10 – Mazzini WON 15/8

 

***

That will be all for today. I have run out of time to look at anything else. No strong views on the Haldon Gold Cup – if the fav jumps fine he should take most of the beating but there is the odd interesting one at a price, Presenting Arms and Sir Valentino, but I haven’t looked at it in any depth and will just enjoy watching it. Good luck whatever you may back today.

Josh

 

About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

38 Comments

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  • Sir Valentino may not have the class in the 2.20 Exeter,but its hard to leave a George horse unbacked at 10/1

    gearoid180468 1 year ago Reply


    • A Ludlow specialist it seems but in a dead eight race think it looks a cracking ew as long as they all run but as we know this happens only rarely it seems. It is the Haldon Gold Cuo though so they should all stand there ground.
      Tom

      fingers 1 year ago Reply


      • And how right you would both be! Super stuff, great finish.

        Josh 1 year ago Reply


    • Good shout Ger….. I keep looking for Paddy B.

      tonymc 1 year ago Reply


  • Just taken 9/2 at skybet for WHATAKNIGHT in the 2.50 Exeter. Only 5/2 at bet 365.

    Bernardber 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Awful what happened in the 3.20pm and thoughts most definitely with the jockeys and families no further news on the BHB website as yet but hopefully its not as serious as it looked….

    With the 2 races that were run ok the stallions in the “of interest” list performed the best finding a 1st & a 3rd in the opener and 1st, 2nd, 4th & 5th in the 2.50pm with the selection coming 3rd again showing that the stallion data outweighs any draw bias. Going forward I will focus more on the stallions overall performance on that given race and use the draw as just an extra check (i:e not in a 0% – 5% stall) and see if this helps pinpoint more winners in the selection section and will put the stall % next to each runner in all lists, This can be seen below for tomorrows Kempton card…

    4.40 – Sennockian Song (New Approach 1 run ,0 wins, 1 place) Drawn 7 – 16.33%

    5.10 – Black Bolt (Cape Cross 4 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 4 – 17.17%

    5.40 – BeePeeCee (Henrythenavigator 5,1,2) Drawn 12 – 8.57%

    6.10 – Music Major (Bertolini 2 runs, 2 wins , 2 places ) Drawn 1 – 10.98%

    6.40 – Candesta (First Defence 2 runs, 2 wins, 2 places) Drawn 7 – 7.58%

    7.10 – Mazzini ( Exceed & Excel 12 runs, 3 wins, 4 places) Drawn 4 – 9.38%

    7.40 – Engaging Smile (Exceed & Excel 7 runs, 4 wins, 6 places) Drawn 10 – 6.25%

    8.10 – Ballyfarsoon (Medicean 2 runs, 0 wins, 1 place) Drawn 7 – 11.11%

    Footnote – Stallions of interest list left out ( in the main ) due to inferior stallion data than selection

    4.40 – Fern Owl (Nayef 1,0,1) 9 – 17.86%

    5.10 – Sajah (Approve 2,1,2) 9 – 9.06%
    5.10 – Forest Steps (Footstepsinthesand 3,1,3) 3 – 11.65%
    5.10 – Highland Clearance (Kyllachy 3,1,1) 1 – 9.62%
    5.10 – Pleasure Requested (Acclamation 6,1,3) 10 – 6.25%

    6.10 – Mr Marchwood (Medicean 5,1,2) 7 – 13.51%

    6.40 – Freddy with a Y (Amadeus Wolf 1,1,1) 1 – 10.98%

    7.10 – Bahamian Heights (Bahamian Bounty 9,2,4) 1 – 14.93%

    7.40 – Lets Twist (Piccolo 4,1,2) 6 – 14.14%
    7.40 – Take a Note (Singspiel 1,1,1) 1 – 9.62%
    7.40 – Consulting (Kyllachy 3,1,1) 5 – 6.0%

    I’m sure there will be a winner or two above lets hope this slight adjustment finds more winners in the selection area

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 1 year ago Reply


  • Shocking incident at KP, thoughts with both jockeys, bad enough on the jumps but a fall on the flat like that is horrific & so dangerous.

    I’m on hols this week, so a bit of time before family get up to have a fun bet on a silly system that won me money a couple of years ago. Any ideas to refine my basic system, the qualifiers are any horse that won LTO, only odds 8/1 +, back EW. Happy for any comments to say just rubbish! My simple logic is, nobody tells a horse who won LTO it is up in class & can’t win again.

    Today’s six bets (which I backed), also paper traded Sat & Sun for smaller profit too.
    2.15W Call the Taxie 10/1 2nd
    3.15W Bay of Freedom 8/1 WON
    3.25G Cool Fighter 10/1 UP
    Highway Royal 40/1 2ND
    2.10P Queens Present 10/1 WON
    2.40P Dawn Riviere 8/1 WON

    I did back these today but only at 0.25 point EW, so can verify a very good profit.

    Could they go in an EW multiple?

    Tomorrow’s potential qualifiers may include (waiting on bookies odds as must be 8/1+):
    2.10R Sister Dude 8/1
    3.20E By the Boardwalk 6/1
    2.00W Alices Dream 15/2
    2.30W A Sure Welcome 15/2
    3.00W No Refund 9/1
    Showtime Blues 9/1
    4.30W Thane of Cawdor 11/2
    7.10K Interlink 6/1
    8.10K Giant Sequola 6/1

    lately 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Lately

    Had a look at this horse won last time out and odds 8/1 or over and the overall figures are pretty grim
    52445 selections, 2964 wins at 5.65%, 11153 places at 21.27% for a loss to SP of -£15,419.15, If we break it down by odds the only winning segment over time would be 9.5 at 11.56% +63.5. There has been 726 selections at odds of 66/1 or bigger with only 1 winner and 15 places….If you had been using Betfair then some odds brackets have made small profits but they are spread about it seems that it would be tough to make long term profits using this sorry mate

    Steve Wiseman 1 year ago Reply


    • Thanks for running that Steve. Not promising backing blind, if it doesn’t take too much time could you run at the start of the flat & start of the jumps when there isn’t much current form? Just say one month in October & May? Cheers.

      David 1 year ago Reply


      • HI David

        Tried running the data and breaking down by every month to see if there was an angle in but every month runs at a loss even with Betfair varying from 5.03% March to the best month February 6.36%. Also tried restricting the odds by removing everything over 66/1 but still no profit….Tried using various staking strategies also but it would blow the bank every time, Hope this helps

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 1 year ago Reply


  • A November Trainer with early runners today. Tends to get the winners later in the month but does have 45% place figures and today there are 4 runners, all at big prices.

    J S Moore over the last 3 years…. 6/31

    2.00 The Night is Ours 25/1
    2.30 Everkyllachy 25/1
    4.30 Golden Isles 16/1
    5.40 Gog Elles 25/1

    normally favours todays 2 A/W meetings

    Norman 1 year ago Reply


    • I’ve chucked em in a small e/w Lucky 15, mate. He’s actually profitable backing blind on the aw for the last 5 years (win only), and the e/w stats are also positive for the last 12 months. Worth a stab at the odds, especially as they’ve drifted a touch.
      Cheers, Paul

      Paul 1 year ago Reply


    • Yep cheers Norman, interesting to track him this month. Good luck.

      Josh 1 year ago Reply


      • Great stuff Norman! I too am looking at Js Moore for November, after the success of Josh”s december system for him I had a look and dig about on hrb. Waited a year to trial this one and came up with these rules:
        Aw
        Not a claimer
        Not southwell or Chelmsford
        20/1 or less.
        That would leave Golden Isles as a qualifying bet, but I will be watching only with an aim to add it into my book for next year if it makes a profit. Good luck 😉

        James b 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh/All,
    couldn’t resist it, I’m not really one to speak out, usually just read what everyone else writes, but thought I’d try these at Exeter today,
    2.20 Presenting Arms 11/2 and I can’t understand why Purple n Gold is 33-1 ?
    4.20 Culm Counsellor 6-1,
    there you have it guys and gals, good luck today.
    Bryn

    gregsi 1 year ago Reply


    • Hi Bryn..ah we all appreciate speaking out in these parts- you will have seen how many horses I have fancied in recent weeks are probably still running and all thoughts are appreciated.
      2.20 tend to agree that Presenting Arms looks ok at that price, as does the George horse at his price and should give any backers a run for money… Purple N Gold- that could be on the big side but I would be shocked were he to take this- he is out the handicap, Scu isn’t on, and I can’t see his level of form being good enough. He also looks out of form – his best run over fences recently was behind workbench but I don’t think that was a great race/great level of form. I have made a clunker or two recently but will sit bewildered if he takes this. He needs 5/6 others to under-perform massively for me- but then you are getting 33s and if you think that is worth an EW stab (grabbing third not impossible) please don’t let me put you off!
      Am with you in 4.20- he is a TTP stats pick, as he was at 16s the last day. If building on that he should go close.
      GL
      Josh

      Josh 1 year ago Reply


  • I agree with you on Caulfield’s Venture Josh and its my NAP. Have also had a bet on Mustique (14:10) and Imshivalla (14:40) at Redcar. Fahey in cracking form amongst other reasons.

    There have been a few mentioning value horses in the Haldon Cup but the one that stick out for me is Dodging Bullets at 9/2. I dont often go e/w at the price but I can’t see him out of the front three and have had a decent e/w bet. Should be much closer to the favourite. He has been around for ages but is still only 8 so you wouldnt expect him to regeress just yet. Certainly much better value than Presenting Arms IMHO. Nicholls is flying as well.

    Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


  • I don’t see why Hailing’s Wish cannot go in again today at 9/2, 8.10 KP? Distance should suit and in form. They may well be a gamble here!

    I also like Culm Counsellor each way, 4.20 Ex.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 1 year ago Reply


  • May I say booooommmm well done Josh nice one.

    kevhol123 1 year ago Reply


  • Well done Josh

    JV 1 year ago Reply


  • your the man Josh
    Back on track

    yourifc 1 year ago Reply


  • Great Shout Josh….well done mate.

    tonymc 1 year ago Reply


  • Welcome back to the enclosure mate! Always nice to get paid twice.

    Nick Mazur 1 year ago Reply


  • Oi oi! Back in the winners enclosure!

    Ali 1 year ago Reply


  • Well done Josh, you was right, that bloody
    Daryl Jacob can’t ride over fences… lol
    Dave

    davidw29 1 year ago Reply


    • haha- just goes to show never let a jockey put you off if you like a price/horse- which I never do- credit where it is due, he gave that one a peach!! Albeit, that horse knows his way around there blindfolded! 🙂

      Josh 1 year ago Reply


  • well done josh.

    lovetina 1 year ago Reply


  • Caulfield’s Venture – 1 point win back on track Josh nice winner

    George 1 year ago Reply


  • Cheers guys- we won’t get too excited with that given my ‘recent’ form but I am just pleased to have read one right, and on that ground – albeit bar a race at Carlisle and Ascot (where all 4 were nowhere/tailed off) I have been reading the chasers ok, just bottling tipping. It is a game of the mind. Glad I stuck with him there. On we go…

    Josh 1 year ago Reply


    • Well done Josh, hopefully this is the turning of the corner. Had it in an each way double with Culm Counsellor that we both put up earlier (Trainer course form in handicap hurdles). Also have both in an each way treble with Hailing’s Wish at KP, my other selection earlier.

      Anyway drinks all round!

      martin colwell 1 year ago Reply


      • Super stuff Martin, yep a good day for TTP stats with caulfield’s and Culm C, and plenty of losers avoided also which always helps. That is a very tasty double, well done. Good luck with KP.
        Have just seen that Ebbisham in 6.40 is only qualifier from my guide I think, having just had a flick through. Had a small nibble on him.

        Josh 1 year ago Reply


        • Hi Josh, Ebbisham also does the job at KP. Very well done. Just like buses isn’t it. You wait for one for ages and then two or three come along together!…..Well done again.

          Allan 1 year ago Reply


          • Cheers mate- yep, well seemed to have found the right research approach with the old trainers and tracks. Did that really well. If that is a sign of things to come on the AW then happy days! Maybe I should look at those more closely!

            Josh 1 year ago Reply


        • Is Fiorne Tower, 8.10 KP a qualifier for the all weather stats. K Fox, J Best class 6

          danegold 1 year ago Reply


          • yep he was, i missed him. New eyes please. 1/2 on day.

            Josh 1 year ago Reply


  • Well done josh didn’t doubt you for a minute

    Jamie 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Just back in to see a smashing winner today well done mate might just open the winter floodgates, Looks like there has been winners spread around everyone today great stuff guys hopefully I can add to that at Kempton

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 1 year ago Reply


  • Great stuff josh you the man here we go for the winter yeeeaaahhh

    thomasson67 1 year ago Reply


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