Thoughts with Jim Crowley, Freddy Tylicki and their families after that horrific incident at Kempton. Both being treated for spinal injuries. Fingers crossed. Puts everything into perspective somewhat.
Caulfield’s Venture – 1 point win – WON 7/1 SP …13/2 / 6/1 (both general, money back free bet offer PP 13/2)
Well bloody hell, a winner at last! That was a joy to watch all the way round really and credit to Jacob, i have given him some stick but he gave that one a peach there- super judgement of pace having tried to lead and sat when Johnson took it up- he jumped well on the whole albeit he does know his way around there. I have always said you should never let a jockey put you off if you like the horse/price. Still, I hope he never rides Fox Appeal again! 🙂 Quite happy with how I read that albeit the second wasn’t high enough up in the dangers list, can always improve! I did say watch the market and he collapsed from 14s to 9/2- he was there to win and ran as such- the money seems to be right with the Dartnall yard and esp when Schofield is on- that’s why he wasn’t on Sun Wild Life then. Happy with how I read the rest of the runners- track position and jumping has won that race, as is often the case in 3m+ chases. That lifts the tipping mood.
Well I tipped/backed him the last day for much the same reasons and I can’t see why I should leave him here at what looks a decent price to me. He drifted somewhat alarmingly the last day which suggested he would either need the run and/or it was clear the blinkers may be upsetting him. I think it may be the former as until about three from home he travelled well enough before being left behind -but rather than going backwards,which is never the best of signs, he did plug on into 3rd. It should be noted that the two in front of him were young/progressive horses who clearly had a bit in hand also. EASY STREET…. came second there and should enter the notebooks- he was given too much to do by Coleman and if they given him a more prominent ride, or a race with loads of pace where it might collapse, his turn shouldn’t be far away.
So, there is a possibility that CV comes on for that last run and if that is the case he wont be far away. That was only his second run in around a year also having been PU before that so maybe he needed it. For a 10 year old he is lightly enough raced. The Visor returns also, and that was a positive given he is proven in it and clearly changes of equipment usually have the desired affect.
He is 3/4,4 places at the track, has yet to run a bad race here, and also races prominently. He should try and track For N Against again here, being in the perfect spot to pounce as, touch wood, that one fades back through the field again. The final big tick is the ground- it is good, good to firm here, ‘watered’- it suggests it is like a road again- in this race last year blog followers backed the 16/1 winner- the first qualifier for V Williams in November for our micro system- that was run in a bog- some rain would now be welcome. And that is another aside…horses that have form in March-October say may have a pattern of dropping off in Nov/Dec- usually as the ground turns to Soft I suspect- as yet there isn’t much sign of that so those types may keep performing.
Anyway, the ground- well he relished good to firm- I don’t think I appreciated how firm it was at Ascot on Sat, just focusing on ‘good’- Buckhorn Timothy couldn’t go the pace and didn’t look to enjoy it, and over that trip A Good Skin didn’t seem to pick up either having travelled well. Having backed two ‘proven in conditions’ it appears as though I did the opposite! Howler. There is no such concern with this one and I think he is the only one who is properly proven on this ground, at this class over fences. When asked he will pick up- or he should. When others are they may not put down fully and the pace on this ground may take some out of their jumping comfort zone. Lavelle is also ‘in form’ 1/9,5 places last 14 days.
I am starting to go off Jacob over fences but not enough to put me off backing this one. I just wish he would have more confidence in himself and the horses he is riding. When he asks them up, and boots them into a fence, they usually ping it. When he sits there motionless and ‘lets’ them jump errors start to creep in. A confident ride please Daryl…
So, that’s him. Happy to give him one more go….
I was reluctant to dive in with him albeit close to 1.5 points due to the firm in the going. But, there are a couple of main dangers…
Silver Commander- he is still lightly raced over fences and dotted up the last day-albeit that was a 4 runner race without loads of depth. I just can’t take 5/1 | 9/2 on a horse that has 570 days off- he isn’t certain to relish this ground, and this is the toughest chase he has faced for me. Jumping etc will be under pressure. More than happy to applaud a superb training performance if he takes this -he could have loads in hand. But he is 5s, and not 10s+.
By The Boadwalk- i thought long and hard about making him a 1/2 point bet, or 1 point on both- but the ‘firm’ has put me off. He won a shade cosily the last day on what was rain softened ground and there was plenty of good to soft around to my eye. His past form and his action suggests he may not like a road. I suspect he may struggle to hold his position and be in the latter third here, and his jumping may come under some pressure. It is his first run at the track also. That run at Wincanton on a road puts me off a tad albeit it was after a break and his odds suggest that was how he was going to run. Still, his best form is on ‘good’ at worse. He hasn’t fully proved he won’t handle this going and is in superb form. He could improve again for that win, although I also have mu doubts as to how good that race really was. But he is fit and in form, as is his trainer. IF he handles the ground, he will be bang there. That was the dilemma.
Sun Wild Life – well he has a chance but I don’t like his price in the context of the break- he ran ok in this race last year on reappearance but it suggests he can come on for the run. Now 0/2,0 places 121-365 days off and the trainer doesn’t have the best of records with horses after 60+ days off either. There was also a ground niggle- his best form has come in soft and there has to be a question over how lively this ground is. I also though Schofield may have got the leg up- has ridden him before, inc in this race- if he thought he had a great chance. Market suggests he is going to run a good race but given those doubts above, 5s again feels short enough.
Fort Worth – deserves a mention after his last run, albeit the winner din’t run well NTO. He is held up usually and keeps placing – again his price doesn’t leap out at me, even more so in the context of Jonjos form… 2/43,7 places last 14 days, and he is only 3/31,9 places here in handicap chases the last 5 years. He is unexposed enough but I was happy to leave him at his odds. He will be hoping the leaders come back, and I am hoping that Caulfields Venture wont be, esp on this going.
I can’t have any of the rest really. Gary Charm could hack up here- he could- but I am not tempted, even at 9s. He started racing when he was 3 in France, you could actually view him as an exposed 10 year old,(compared to British counterparts who mostly don’t start getting going properly until age 5+) having had 30+ career starts already. All of his best french form was in soft/heavy and under 20f. There is a stamina question as well as a wellbeing one given recent runs. He unseated the last day quite a way from home. Scu picks him from the three which may be some indication. He is hard to get a read on. If he stayed, and if he handled the ground, and if he jumped better, he would have a chance. A few too many ifs for me. Pipes are only going ‘ok’ also , and like Jonjo he doesn’t do that well here with handicap chasers- 3/35,9 places last 5 years. This could be a lenient mark and if his price crumbles I will watch this from behind the couch.
Pipe’s other two have a few too many questions and look like ‘summer form’ horses- they are also both badly out of form and on their last two runs each I don’t think you would want to be wading in here. There are plenty of in form, and more progressive chasers in here and surely too many for one of these to take this. Skylander’s last 4 chases have been abject and maybe he doesn’t like the chasing game- his stamina could be stretched over fences here also. They change the headgear again but I see no reason why he should improve on his last run here. Happy to be very wrong on him…gulp.
Dreamsoftheatre – I don’t think he will be good enough against this lot albeit he will relish the ground- and that could see him run a good race I suppose. He won a summer C2 at Cartmel, but if you ignore that he is 0/13,2 places in class 3 contests. Also 0/5,0 places 61-121 days rest and has all those jonjo stats to overcome also. Dancing Shadow can clout a fence, is now 0/16 in career and has the break to overcome. He could run an ok race and the market may guide, but there are plenty of more proven chasers in here who should have his measure. If he jumps, and if he is race fit, he handles conditions well enough, albeit again the ‘firm’ is a question having said that.
So, that is the lot. More than happy to take one more stab on this one- it could be the last time I ever back him- the ground may go soon enough, and if it does he will be 11 next year- still, always the Veteran’s chases to target I suppose and he is still lightly raced for his age.
Good luck whatever you go with. My form, particularly in chases on a sound surface, has been very poor- to the point where it suggests I am not approaching them in the right way and my current approach is missing something. We shall see how this one gets on!
NOTE: Well, what may be the busiest period has now ended as we move into November. There was plenty of action with the Sept/Oct trainers. There will be a results post this week, inc Sept/Oct trainers who ended on a high on Monday with another couple of winners. I think collectively they may be around the 70+ points mark, using morning odds. Albeit figures will differ.
From now on there is the handicap hurdle/chase portfolio to track, the other micro systems, George/Heskin and the odd Fanshawe selection. Oh, and Venetia Williams, but she is yet to have a runner since I don’t know when. They can be found in the Free Reports/Systems tab above. I do need to add more detail to the handicap hurdle/chase report also as promised- that kind of job always gets bumped to the bottom of my to do list but it will get done 🙂
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio
2.20 Exet- Pain Au Chocolat (hnc c debut) UP
3.20 Exet- Gary Charm – (Pipe, 11/1< best as a guide) UP
J Fanshawe Kempton
7.10 – Mazzini WON 15/8
That will be all for today. I have run out of time to look at anything else. No strong views on the Haldon Gold Cup – if the fav jumps fine he should take most of the beating but there is the odd interesting one at a price, Presenting Arms and Sir Valentino, but I haven’t looked at it in any depth and will just enjoy watching it. Good luck whatever you may back today.