TIPS
none.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.40 Plumpton – Kapgarde King 5/1… 2nd- lucky- albeit his jumped best of the rest,maybe he just isn’t very good as led until heading out final circuit and then did very little. Dont think he ran a great race there…One for the ‘prominent chasers’ angle I think as LTO he eventually got to the front and dominated all the way round. 5s seems fair given I suspect they will race prominently again, he could have more progress to come in him, is now proven over fences under rules and he is the only proven stayer in the race, on what they have done under rules. I am struggling to see, if completing, why he wont get involved here. He is going LH and on an undulating track- both different from LTO,so does have that to prove. Trainer is in form 2/8,3 places last 14 days. He is ‘only’ 1/38 all runners at the track, but on closer inspection of his handicap chase stats here you get a much better.. 1/12,4 places. Don’t think I can resist a 1/2 point on him at 5s, that price even allows for an EW stab also. He must run a good race here…?…
3.30 Hereford – Romann Angle – 11/1 UP 16/1 (market drift told the story this time it seems,travlled ok on front end for a time before cutting out very quickly which was odd,suggesting a problem maybe. 0/2,0p for that test..)– one for our ‘handicap hurdle debut’ test here, again at an EW price. Emphasis on ‘test’ the first runner not doing great a few days ago! There are a few things of some interest here. This one had failed to get a mark up until the last run- the capper seemingly having no evidence of ability – connections no doubt wanted to sneak in off an even lower mark than this one. But, after a break, they stepped stepped her up in trip and she led for a long way the last day. She ran well and could possibly come on for the run. I also found the jockey booking of some interest – the most experienced rider she has ever had on her back. So, we shall see. You would like to see some money for her- they may be plotting with this one and want the mark to come down further, we shall see. Lightly raced that last run demonstrated she had some ability and should be winning a weak handicap at some point.
Had I not had Sunday ‘off’ from the analysis front I am confident I would have picked out the David Loader 12/1 handicap hurdle debutant winner at Carlisle yesterday- handicap debut, stepping up in trip and De Boinville in saddle. There is hope for this approach moving forward, with any luck.
JUMPS ANGLES
Kerry Lee (12/1<)
2.30 Hereford – Aces Over Eights 2nd 4/1
Sept/Oct Trainers
NTD
1.00 Here – BallyHill WON 4/1 (1 run 90 days+rest pattern, also qualifies on other non-hncp micro angle for trainer)
2.30 Here- Kilronan High WON 2/1 (1 run 90 days, rest patter,+ extreme weight)
3.00 Here- West Tor UP (extreme weight trends)
(note: E Williams has three today but none qualify against notes. Still Believing in 2.30 race runs in right class, but trainer 0/11,1p with handicap chasers within that angle)
OTHER
J Fanshawe Kempton
4.20 – Up In Lights Meeting abandoned.
***
That is all for today.
5 Responses
Hi Josh / All
Been a hectic week and haven’t had the time to post up the “Polytrack Stallions” but a quick recap of the results 1 winner at Dundalk, 2 at Chelmsford, 4 at Kempton (2 were selections the other 2 were stallions of interest) and the first meeting at Lingfield found 6 winners from 8 races although 5 of those including a dead heat were in the stallions of interest list showing that the draw is not the most significant factor at these tracks…I do have 3 selections for tomorrow at Kempton based on stallion data & draw but it wouldn’t surprise me if winners are found in the stallions of interest list….
7F – Top Draw – 4,11,6,8,3
2.20 – Sexton Blake (Rip Van Winkle 4 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 4
7F – Top Draw – 4,11,6,8,3
2.50 – Next Challenge (Shamardal 4 runs, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 4
1M – Top Draw – 7,6,2,14,1
3.20 – No Selection
1M – Top Draw – 7,6,2,14,1
3.50 – No Selection
1M – Top Draw – 7,6,2,14,1
4.20 – No Selection
1M 3F – Top Draw – 15,9,7,11,3
4.50 – Sam Missile (Smart Strike 3 runs, 1 wiin, 2 places)
7F – Top Draw – 4,11,6,8,3
5.20 – No Selection
Footnote – Stallions of Interest left out due to draw / another selection in race
2.20 – Plus Night (Exceed & Excel 5,3,4)
2.20 – Encore Moi (Exceed & Excel 5,3,4)
2.20 – Sonnet (Kyllachy 3,1,1)
2.50 – Perla Blanca (Dalakhani 1,1,1)
2.50 – Dick Tracy (Lawman 6,2,3)
2.50 – Yalawin (Lawman 6,2,3)
2.50 – Mafaheem (Shamardal 4,1,1)
3.20 – Skara Mae (Canford Cliffs 2,1,1)
3.20 – Electrify (Invincible Spirit 9,1,4)
3.20 – Imasumaq (Teofilio 1,0,1)
3.50 – Torment (Dark Angel 4,2,3)
3.50 – Run to the Hills (Quality Road 1,0,1)
3.50 – Threebagsue (Lord Shanakil 1,0,1)
4.20 – Rousayan (Invincible Spirit 1,1,1)
4.20 – Chevalier (Invincible Spirit 1,1,1)
4.50 – Banish (Smart Strike 3,1,2)
4.50 – Charlies Mate (Myboycharlie 3,1,3)
5.20 – Balddini (Bertolini 2,1,2)
5.20 – Threegracez (Kyllachy 8,2,4)
5.20 – Jaquote Delamayne (Kyllachy 8,2,4)
Good luck all
Cheers
Steve
Hi Steve/Josh…all.
I’ll paper trade them against my ratings again and see how they go.
BOL.
Cheers Steve, good luck .
Hi Josh, I was highly tempted by D Loder’s yesterday, but in the absence of anything to back it up but instinct…I left it.
He used to be a springer on the flat. I don’t know what his stats are like now in hurdles?.
Keep going Josh…it’ll come good.
Cheers Tony, I will keep going, don’t worry about that… need to go through results from Sept/Oct trainers but think that haul is in excess of 70 points… The TTP stats aren’t doing too badly either, 14/1 winner yesterday helped my mood from what was an abject Saturday! Those have softened the blow of my own recent poor form! It will come. At some point.
Excited to see what we can do on the handicap hurdle debut front- will be plenty of losers but hopefully enough decent priced winners to come out in front- just need to look for whether horse is doing something different – days rest, going, distance move, jockey booking being the main ones I think. In context of making handicap debut- those are reasons you may see an improved performance.
Handicap hurdle debut and step in trip were of most interest for Loder’s yesterday. dont know what his record over jumps is actually, but can clearly train them if he wants.