TTP Jumps Notes: 28/10/16 (COMPLETE)

Uttoxeter + Wetherby Qualifiers + Notes+ My View

 

 

UTTOXETER

3.10

Oorayvic PU(hncp h + micro, ‘going’ IF soft- looks unlikely)*

*sadly something went amiss and was pulled up sharp. There was a late drift a few mins before the off which indicated he may need it, but was running well. I had 1/2 point to find out at 8s, went into 11/2, before going out to 10s.  

NOTE: trainer 0/5,0 places last 14 days, horse returns after 670 days off. Smith is 7/80,17 places with handicap hurdlers returning after more than 365 days off. She can get them ready. Has had a couple like this recently – returning after lengthy breaks,and the market has got it right- drifting from memory and never getting involved. So, it may guide again as to this ones chance. Very lightly raced and if he was 100% fit his old form suggests he could get involved.

 

4.20

Mr Burgess (hncp c) WON 3/1>9/2 (SP a bit better than this morning)

NOTE: Pipe’s going ok, 3/17,4 places last 14 days and are performing above market expectation. November is usually the month where they really start to get going. Looks like he gets first time blinkers here, in addition to the tongue tie that went on first time LTO. Based on his last three runs at least you would say they need to have a positive affect- doing something different at least.

Special Wells DNQ (micro going IF soft)

NOTE: Same Sue Smith stats as above. With handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days she is 7/108,26 places, 0/9,2 places at the track. Again the market may guide on this one’s chance after a break.

 

4.50

Magic Money  2nd 7/1> 4/1 (all hncps)

NOTE: trainer 2/3,2 places last 14 days.

Eardisland UP (micro, class)

NOTE: trainer 7/36,12 places last 14 days.

 

WETHERBY

2.45

Little Bruce UP (micro, trainer jockey combo)

NOTE: trainer 1/9,1 place last 14 days.

3.20

Shadows Lengthen UP (all hncps)*

*cracking run, much better than I expected- drifted to 25s and while I am unsure whether he would have won, a last fence blunder could have possibly cost him second. Looks like plenty of life in him and this was a decent race for me. One to watch on next few starts, and he usually comes on for a run- maybe a Veterans chase they can find for him. 

NOTE: trainer 1/19,5 places last 14 days. Horse is 0/6,0 places off breaks of 60+ days.

***

My View:

Let’s start with Wetherby where I will be leaving both. Little Bruce looks up against it as the market suggests and his form isn’t much to shout home about. There are 4/5 horses in here with recent winning form, the majority of whom are also fit. I would be surprised if he took this, esp on the showing of that last run.Shadows Lengthen won this race in 2014 on the back of a prep run which he hasn’t had here and his record after breaks puts me off. Given their form/profiles etc I would be slightly surprised if one of the top three in the market didn’t take this. SL isn’t getting any younger either. Of course he can win but I will leave him personally. He is actually 0/9,0 places all career runs breaks of 90+ days.

Uttoxeter… this looks more tricky

3.10 – Sue Smiths charge is prominent enough in the market here at 8s to make him of more interest. I may keep an eye on how it develops as the market has been some guide to hers returning after long breaks. It is a weak race to my eye and while he was looking like a better chaser in the making, he hasn’t had many goes in handicap hurdles. Just whether they are using a few hurdles runs to sharpen him up I suppose.

Mr Burgess…he was actually making his stable debut LTO after a lengthy enough break and having looked he ran ok- the drop back in trip should help and the blinkers might. However, I am not leaping out of my chair to back him at 3/1, to my sometimes questionable eye that seems short enough. He can clearly take this as he is unexposed but the likes of Muckle Row and Lemons Gent may not be far away either.

Special Wells technically wont qualify unless a deluge – interesting how he goes as Smith yet to hit top form which she will do at some point- looking through his form suggests the softer the better for him anyway.

4.50- Well you can’t say either of these doesn’t have some sort of chance, in what looks a competitive little race where you could give chances to 6 of them I think, on paper. I think the decision for me is whether to have 1/2 point on each or leave the race- when you have 6 horses that are around 6/1 or shorter it says it all I think. I would have slight preference for Magic Money over Eardisland who could just have poor summer form to his name, but he is lightly raced. But there are at least three in here who could be much better than what they have shown to date. A bit on the fence- on flip side to all that a few of the others do have fitness questions. The fact I am so undecided may be an indication for me to leave it, and take my medicine if one goes in.

I will definitely be leaving the two at Wetherby and Mr Burgess at 3s. The rest I am undecided on. Of course a lot of the above is subjective and as always use it/ignore it as you please. The ‘if in doubt, trust the stats’ motto has worked well so far I suppose given the decent enough profits if backing everything systematically. Unless Shadows Lengthen pops up I won’t have left any big price winners unbacked.

Good luck with however you approach today,

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Hi Josh.
    The 3.20 at Wetherby is perhaps the best race of the day with a competitive look to it and as such I have looked toward an E.W. selection that being previous race winner Shadows Lengthen. Although a 10yo I think the ability to win this again remains and there are question marks against a few here regarding the pace around Wetherby which is usually quick. Greenall has a good record here being almost 30% in chases and I think Easterby will want to win with this before the ground starts to ease and could have him primed.
    Tom

    1. Hi Tom, yep very interesting. And your view demonstrates what a wonderful game of opinion this is! Agree about it looking one of best races of the day. I suppose the fitness stats are what put me off most here- but maybe they will have him primed after a break like he has never been before. Agree there are questions over fitness and trip for Theatre Guide (albeit good record fresh- not sure if this may be a prep for something) and while maybe not as far as ideal he is a strong traveller who probably travels at a pace most of these couldn’t match-so his class may actually shine through more- worry would be if they do go a pace where his jumping is put to test- can be dodgy….wonder if Brennan may try and make all?? Back in his younger days he would have the pace for this- looks like he was outpaced in this very race last year, albeit maybe the Soft ground had more to do with that- likes a sounder surface. I think Indian Stream has a strong chance also and the shrewdie that is his trainer could have used that last run as a prep for this, was after a little break and over a trip too far. Decent pot up for grabs.

      So, the fitness question, and profiles of those near top of market made me leave him. But, I have been wrong a few times already, albeit yet to totally leave one that goes off 10/1+, maybe he is the clanger!!
      I haven’t bet in the race but will watch with interest. I missed the 5s on Indian Stream which may have tempted me.
      Good Luck

      1. Possibly unlucky there Tom, esp on the place part- drifted out to 25s which was no indication as clearly fit enough- not sure if would have beaten winner but he tried to take the last fence with him, would have been closer but for that – but then again leaders were jumping at a pace that may have put him under pressure. Brave run from the old boy, looks like he still has wins in him, one to watch next couple starts as I think that was a decent enough race.

  2. Would have been 2nd Josh and your right it tryed to take the last fence with him which was unfortunate as it jumped absolutely brilliantly all the way excluding the first and last and his jump at the second was spectacular to say the least. Cats out the bag now though…
    Tom

    1. Hmm maybe, but if you are quick enough he could be put in at 5s / 4s for next race depending on what/where they go with him. Given age suspect they may just look for a win now- that race clearly a target. Possible he doesn’t come on for it but a repeat of that run would put him close in plenty of handicap chases.

      1. Was ready today and as long as ground stays good and speed track and two and half miles there could possibly be another race in him.
        Tom

    1. Hi Jack- I am liable to get such basic things wrong- on this occasion I am ok… This one qualifies on the ‘Micro Angles’ which cover both handicap hurdles/chases- not a distinction as often numbers are very micro – and that kind of thing I can look at in more depth on horse by horse basis.
      As it turns out this one wont qualify as it is not soft. He may run well, we shall see. Not an official qualifier. Do keep those eager eyes peeled as I will no doubt make an error at some point and always appreciate pointing them out!
      Josh

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