FREE DAILY POST: 27/10/16 (COMPLETE)

post complete…jumps angles, tip, stats/angles profile horse…

TIPS

4.10 Sedgefield

Jac The Legend – 1 point win – 6/1 (general) 3rd, 7/2 *

*travelled well most of way round, possibly tiring in final stages or he just couldn’t go as quick as winner, on that ground. Stayed on same pace. Would like to think there are long distance chases in him, when ground softens. May come on for run, we shall see. Market/way he ran suggests he was fairly straight here, beaten by better horses on the day. 

Well try as I might I just cant get away from this one. He is young, still with the promise of more to come, tries his best for you, won on seasonal reappearance last year and looks like he is crying out for a return to this trip. His jumping got better as he gained experience last season and he just keeps galloping and responding to pressure. He tried a similar trip at Catterick last season but unshipped fairly early. He rarely runs a bad race and given how he goes over 24-26f you would think this 29f is exactly what he needs. There is only one way to find out and I was happy to take a poke on him at 6s.

Fitness is clearly a question and I would have preferred a prep run. He may fade out but given he won last season on reappearance I will take the chance that they can clearly ready him at home if needed. A quick check in Mark Howard’s One Jump Ahead ‘Talking Trainers’ section indicates that this race is the target for this horse – so hopefully fitness isn’t an excuse. On his last start of the season they raced him prominently, having been holding him up- I have no idea what they will do here but can track Ready Token if desired.

All in all he looks like the one I want to be on. I think I could get Thistlecrack or Douvan (they must target the latter at the big one!) beaten at the moment were they to be ‘tipped’ but hopefully this one gives any backers a run for their money. Two ifs, but If he completes/jumps well, and if he is fit enough, I would be shocked if he were out the frame here. Ellison is in form also, 6/27,10 places last 14 days, oh and the horse knows his way round this course. That run at Haydock suggested a sound surface is no problem for him. Its the distance that I think could be the key. He could have a bit in hand over trips like this. On paper he has a lot going for him for me and I want to see if my views as to his stamina requirements are correct.

Dangers….

Five In  A Row- well his stablemate could take this. His long term target is The Scottish Grand National (mark howard’s book again) but this is his early season target also. I prefer that the selection has proven stamina for me over 24f+, over fences. This one has yet to win beyond 20f over fences, albeit stayed 24f over hurdles well enough. Connections clearly think there is stamina there but on what they have done to date I would be more confident about Jac getting this.  But, he could go well.

Royale Knight is a clear danger but at 3s I am happy to cheer him home- a fine servant who clearly stays well and has had a prep. But he is another year older now and I would hope some younger legs may trouble him here today. Still, he will be doing all his best work late.

I am not overly keen on the rest for one reason or another.

Ready Token- he will try and lead all the way- I wouldn’t say he looks like a dour stayer in the making but his superb jumping will take him a long way. The 7lb rise doesn’t bother me really- the problem could be the rise in class.

Buachaill Alainn – well he promises to stays this distance albeit not conclusive,but his problems are all in the mind- he is very lazy and is now 0/6,0 places in blinkers. It is possible you could make excuses for those runs, but his profile suggests he responds better to other headgear. He isn’t one to trust but if putting it all in will just keep galloping and may not be too far away. I can see why some would have an EW poke at the odds but I think there are other more likely winners in here. I could have that wrong- and you get the feeling of what might happen next!…

The others all have a bit to prove for me now.

PACE… well Ready Token will try and lead. Jac The Legend, well he may track, be up there, or be held up. There are a few other prominent racers and hold up types. I can’t see many excuses on that front.

Hopefully he can give backers a run for their money and I haven’t picked the wrong Ellison horse! The jockey booking did make me scratch my head- wasn’t sure if Cook had the choice. Hughes riding a bit more for him now, including winning on a TTP selection at Ayr on Monday.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Sept/Oct Trainers 

NTD

2.50 Strat – Foxtail Hill UP 2/1 (ticks extreme weight positive)

4.00 Strat- Big Casino WON 6/4  (ticks 1 run 90 days I think, + extreme weight positive and rest pattern)

5.00 Strat – El Terremoto WON 7/4  (ticks 1 run last 90 days positive)

Ewart (all handicappers)

3.00 Sedge- Ascot De Bruyere 3rd 16/1>8/1

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio

Hurdle

5.10 Sedge – Signed Request UP 25/1

 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

4.30 Stratford- Lost Legend – 9/1… UP( looks in doldrums at the moment, never in it. Needs the headgear it seems ) This one is in my tracker as having a ‘chase profile’  … in handicap chases, 20/21f, C2 or below, 1-11 runners, OR 140<… a formline of 1,4,6,1,1,2,1,1,5,7. He was highlighted on here before his last win which he did well at 8s or so, last year. Arguably his worst two runs have been his last two. I don’t quite know what to make of him. He is 0/5,0 places 61-120 days rest , and is much better 31-60 days, 3/9,4 places. He is well handicapped now but goes again without his usual headgear. Coleman is back up in the saddle. I suspect he may go in again with similar conditions and it may be today. Looks a competitive little race though.

 

Post complete.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. Johnny Og goes over his max distance in the 4.50 Str. Going should suit and not too many runners which should also suit. 13/2.

    1. Martin, this was one of the ones Ben Aitken put up in his guest post on the 18th. Tomorrow’s race (as it stands 10.25pm Weds) falls down on two trends strictly speaking, if marginally…max field of 9 and soft or good to soft (BHA says good, good to soft in places). Since Ben also said he may be near his hc ceiling of 132, I’ll leave him unless the field size / conditions change, and hope he maybe drops a couple of lbs.
      Paul
      nb 430 for anyone searching

        1. Yes he is at the edge of the fancy zone I admit. I have had a minimal bet as I do not want to see it win as I have it in my tracker without a bet.

      1. Yes not bad! I also had Jac each way at 6/1 > 7/2. Perhaps Josh’s tip weighed heavy on his back?

        Keep going Josh, maybe Saturday will be kind????

  2. I do like Jac the Legend in this stamina test and has course form and so have gone in at 6/1 in anticipation of a gamble.

  3. i’ve loaded up on Sun Cloud in the 3.35 at 9/2 (6/1 available earlier but at current price it’s still a confident bet for me)

    Incredibly well-handicapped, trainer red hot, only one who truly stays the trip and has the back-class. Has had a prep run, which two market rivals havent

    1. How does Wyfield Rose go off at 16/1 in 3.35 Sedge, record on last C3/C4 races is 101112, I have won money naively/blindly in the past just backing last time winners at prices 8/1+. I backed Sun Cloud, doesn’t make sense to me. Any thoughts?

      1. Yep, seems big in hindsight, suppose many may have thought that after the last run the handicapper had her, also slight stamina questions/unknown. Weight of money for others may have contributed to inflated price maybe.

  4. Durham National looks like a cracking race. Knight Royale is undoubtedly the best horse in the race going for the hat trick. In my opinion he has been unlucky over the past 2 years in the spring (ran a cracker in 6th 2015 GN when ground was too fast, just missed out in 2016 GN when ground spot on and 4th 2016 SN when ground too fast) however he is much better with some cut in the ground and really should be taken on at the prices. Jac the Legend has been targeted for this but the trainer has always said he is a better horse on soft/heavy ground. Ready Token appears to be bred to stay however given this is a big step in trip I would have liked a little more juice in the price despite Longsdon being in great form. I think you need one at an e/w price in this one and the one I have had a bet on is Buchaill Alainn. Has been dropping down the weights and his last two runs have been off longer than ideal 4 month breaks so he should come on for his last run. All his best form is on good ground so its eyecatching that on both occasions he has ran over 3m4f he hasn’t been far away despite racing in less than ideal soft ground. 4lbs lower than his 2nd in a class 2 the last time he had his conditions I expect him to go close.

    I also have had an e/w bet on No Likey in the 4:30 at Stratford. Was fancied for a class 2 at the track earlier this month when falling and this should be easier. Is 2/3 over course and distance in chases. Hobbs is 9/23, 10 places +29 over handicap chases here in the past 2 years including 4/8, 4 places +20 with OBrien on board. A lot of the others here will need the run or rather want it softer. Fav could still be improving however is up in class and weights agian. The one I thought could be the main danger is Lost Legend if he manages to regain some of his old sparkle but this a big if.

    1. BTW Josh looking at the trends I think they might end up being misleading since the race was moved from April/May to October 2 years ago so personally it puts it a completely different compexion and its almost like a new race given the stage of the season is completely different.

      1. Hi Nick yep I spotted that pretty early also…the season runs stats con fused me initially! Have ignored them really as not toonly much to go on. Still pondering.

        P.s welcome back. Hope you had a nice holiday!

        1. It was great thanks. Would definitely recommend it. Even paid for half of it whilst on holiday since one of my tipsters is having a month for the ages. (Has tipped up Knight Royale so we’re probably both getting egg on our face today)

    2. Good shout Nick, he travelled ominously well as soon as tapes went up there- wasn’t in too much doubt long way from home to my eye, lack of fitness may have got other two.

      1. Thanks mate. I’ve broken even the past four/five months so hopefully the jumps season will kick start me off back upwards agian. Nice to see No Likey grab 3rd for an E/W double too. (I havent seen the race but will be interesting if they give the leaders too much room out front).

        Will be interesting to see what they do with Alainn next. Logical choice IMHO would be to put him away until the spring. Have a prep run at Cheltenham or around the time (depending on how much he goes up here maybe even try and get the handicapper to drop him a lb or two) and go for the Scottish National which Bowen won 3 years ago with Al Co.

        1. yep, such a tricky beats, I was blinkered by his record in blinkers, wasn’t sure had been at best in them but actually other race conditions probably against him when worn previously. Was similar price to Jac this morning, around 13/2, and sided with potential progress, as against proven fitness I suppose. Latter won the day. Did it well. Yep that may not be bad shout- when he travels like that is clearly talented and stayed very well.
          No Likey, maybe have them bit too much rope but as I watched i thought pace would collapse as they didn’t mess around, so credit to winner. Both really trapped early. cant say he was really closing come line, just going same pace, and he got after him soon enough for me. But, you may think differently when watching it. May not have had pace to get closer sooner.

  5. Interesting thoughts on the 410 Sed guys. I went on Jac last night fearing a gamble!

    Kevin Ryan has a runner in a Nursery at Chelmsford, 6.10, Tagur.

    I also like Seek the Fair Land each way, 5.20 LP.

    Good luck.

    1. yea price held steady around 6s for long enough this morning,good to see a bit of money albeit tipped on sporting life and no doubt a few other places. Knowing my luck his other one will dot up! GL

  6. Decided to also have 0.5pt e/w on Valleyofmilan in the 15:35 Sedgefield. I don’t think he should be 25/1. Has technically won on re-appearance the last 2 years (one of those he fell at the second fence and won on his next start so technically his first complete start). Is 1/1 at track. McCain is arguably in better form than each of the past 2 jumps seasons. He has been combining really well with Cowley and they are 7/17, 10 places over hurdles in the past five months including winning the last 2. Horse is best on good ground. The race looks tricky and I could see a number winning including the front two in the market but this is certainly no forlorn hope.

    1. I did the same Nick. Had a small go at 16s last night and then took the Stan James at 25’s. Racing Post Tip Box North (Colin Russell) also napped it, which given the other options at Sedgefield was interesting too.

  7. Nice write up by Nick that I read following backing your selection – Traded about 2/1 in running so ran reasonably well but well beaten in the end

    Onward and Upward – Could do with a winner

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