FREE DAILY POST: 28/10/16 (COMPLETE)

Complete…Jumps angles + Stats/Angles of Interest (worth a read today!)

TIPS

none. The 4.30 looked of some interest but it is moderate fair where you would have to give excuses to plenty I think. My tips are running ok on the whole without ending the losing sequence. I will leave this one alone.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Sept/Oct Trainers

NTD

2.35 Uttox – One Forty Seven 2nd (demoted) Dead Heat 7/1 (3.5/1)  (1 run last 90 days, also qualifies on non-hncp hurdle micro)

4.20 Uttox – Muckle Roe (1 run 90 days positive)

2.10 Weth – Scotchtown WON 7/1>10/3 (1 run 90 days, also qualifies on non-hncp hurdle micro)

2.45 Weth – Robinshill DNQ WON 10/1>9/2 (no ticks, does not qualify against my notes)

Dobbin

4.30 Weth – Mister Don DNQ 2nd (does not qualify against my notes)

Lavelle

2.35 Uttox – Chelsea Flyer UP 4/1>7/4 (October runner, 1-5 career runs positive)

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio

Hurdle

2.45 Weth – Today Please 3rd 9/2>9/4 (improve forlast run/still fresh)

Chase

3.20 Weth – Indian Stream WON 5/1>7/2 (2nd run after break)

4.20 Uttox- Lemons Gent (as above) UP 16/1

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

I think for the time being I am going to focus on two areas in this section, moving forwards. A) Pace angles over fences- much like with Owen Na View, trying to identify any chasers who could get an easy lead and stay there- and B) handicap hurdle debutants. – the latter is part inspired by Ms Leech having it ‘right off’ at Fakenham with one a couple days back. For many it left a sour taste- it is a topic for another day, a video>an opinion piece, but me and it seems about 6 others had a frank discussion on twitter, all very civil. Opinions differed.  She played the system to get a mark, the first question, without looking at the morality, was- can we as punters have spotted that winner. Backed from 25s>6s, hacked up. Well the horse was making handicap debut and stepping up in trip by 4f. It was a small field, poor quality handicap. They were the two signs, and the fact it travelled well to 3 from home on his last start in novice hurdles where it got its mark. Some suggested it was ‘stopped’ in that race- in truth I have yet to watch the video again which I should do. Could it have finished closer to the winner in that novice hurdle- probably. That may be the issue and this was an extreme case of a horse having no form whatsoever and then winning. The general point being – that in novice/maiden hurdles many are running to get a handicap mark and are not there to show their best. Some undoubtedly could win if the handbrake was let off, many are simply running over the wrong trip,wrong ground,may not be fit enough,are gaining experience. Micro Angle 5 of the handicap hurdle portfolio looks at trainers who do well with unexposed handicap hurdlers. Whether we like that system or not, at the moment that is the reality. As punters we can engage with it or not- and many will simply leave low grade handicap hurdles for that reason, which is fair enough. I haven’t truly figured out what I think to that system but its reality at the moment,and I like trying to solve the puzzle. It is a topic which divides opinion. SO, let’s see, if over the coming weeks, we can find a few biggies. Starting with… (you may wish to track these etc, use the info as you please)

5.00 Wetherby – IMPROVED- 12/1(UP, appears he could just not be very good at the moment, poor run and was nibbled at. Poor start for the ‘test’ onwards)  it could be, as we move forward, that the market is a real indication with these types. This one makes handicap hurdle debut for a trainer who won this very race last year- he has three in this and I think jockey booking suggests this is the one- it is eye catching to me that he has one of the most experienced conditionals in the race on this ones back. There won’t be many excuses from the saddle I don’t think. So, on its 4th and 3rd start ago the horse showed it did at least have some ability. It also won its first start in a NHF race. SO, at some point this horse will show more and he should be winning a weak handicap hurdle somewhere. One to keep an eye on maybe. The run two starts ago was probably over too far, but ran well for long enough. The last run- that was his seasonal reappearance. He could have needed the run there and in any case, probably wasn’t there to run his best.  He gets in off a low mark here. Now, there isn’t a move in trip which I like to see, but it is his second start after a break and what with the trainer record in the race, jockey booking, there was enough there. The aim is to try and find those at an EW price I suppose. The market may well guide as to this one’s chance but you would like to see an improved effort from him here. Let’s see…

 

***

That is all today.

VENETIA WILLIAMS…. I will post up our trusty VW system which has served this blog well in the past two Novembers- very well indeed. And, as Gerry points out below, she normally has a winner at the end of October, at Ascot, before really firing. I will post up the rules/have another delve into it etc.

***

That is all for today.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. Shouldn’t the George-Heskin qualifiers be posted on here?

    Smoking Jacket won well at 14/1 SP today and it was quite a sickener to have missed it.

    As one of the, if not the, stand-out backable system on here in recent times, it needs its place on here. I do however accept culpability on this occasion for not having it in my own tracker/spotting it on the card today

  2. I will have a look, thats a valid question. Given Heskin hadn’t ridden over here before was some cases to see how he would get on etc before wading straight in. Albeit think we can say he is fine. Cant remember old rules but will dig them out,not sure if novice handicap chaea were in it or not. But I truth I haven’t updated system with Heskin replacing Brennan which clearly I should.

    1. Ah yes, bugger. Sorry about that. Was 2/6,3 places before today, 0 SP. Now 3/6. Damn.
      Rules were
      Handicaps / Chases / Class 1-4 / Age 4-7 / 0-1 chase wins /

      Quiet correct with Brennan that was one of the few good angles on here in recent months.

      1. thanks for looking into it. i’ve got that Novice Hcp chases come up positive too

        let’s hope that’s the last ‘selection error’ i make

        1. Well I don’t think it was making the error! Think I decided to see how Heskin went but was no excuse not to track them. Never mind, done now. Will try not to miss any more! Yep it covers novice handicaps, all handicap chases etc.

          1. Safety first in the systems game even if it means missing a 14s winner, I would rather see some results before getting stuck in and potentially losing the bank. I too was sceptical about how the change of main jockey would affect the system after what happened when Beckett got Berry as his main jockey and I lost a few quid. On the bright side tho it looks like a nice profit is still to be made from George’s horses and also looks like Brennan can be profited from elsewhere, for example when he rides for Fergal O’Brien is definitely worth a closer look imo.

  3. I did have an ew bet on smoking jacket,would have been larger except Paddy wasnt on,He is riding Theatre Guide 3.20 Wetherby Tomorrow,took 11/2 9/2 best now Bet365,looking ahead to 2.25 at ascot Saturday,Venetia Williams has Uhlan Bute entered,its a meeting she targets.Might take the 16/1 and hope its not withdrawn

      1. I have heard a good word for Uhland Bure bit have not looked at prices yet. I have a couple for tomorrow but will post then.

        I am going for a 50/1 each way shot today, Delightfulsurprise, 6.14, NC. It may be suited by the surface and race conditions?

  4. Yep well I would replace paday with Heskin. Now or both as he won’t ride that many moving forward. Yep need to dust of venetia and if memory has it she had a biggie go in back end last October which hit rules, bar it not being November . Be interesting to see how hers go and whether with lack of rain she has been able to train themy as she normally would at home. Hopefully they don’t all need a few runs, but they might.

  5. The way forward with Venetia would be handicap chases on soft ground I would have thought? I am in the South and we are not getting much rain so I am not sure about the soft bit yet.

    I dont have much for Friday yet. I quite like First Premio over one mile, 6.30 Dundalk.

    1. Agree with you there Martin.i am about an hours drive from Ascot,not been much rain about so far,compared to this time last year when it seemed to rain every day,not seen much proper soft ground about so far.Cheers BoB

      1. Yep a concern- I am more intrigued as to how the weather has affected the training of the horses- i believe Venetia turns them out in deep mud etc, and whatever her methods they handle it better than most- clearly plenty bred for it also, but not always the case. Given her record with chasers after breaks at this time of year, it should become clear early enough whether they haven’t been able to get enough work in at home – especially galloping them on the grass etc which may still be too firm for proper work. That is my niggle. We shall see. Will post up the system asap.

  6. Yes Martin in general she farms the lower grade races on soft or heavy,but she seems to target the first Ascot meting of the jumps season,last year Cold March won 12/1,2014 The Clock Leary 12/1,2013 Houblon Des Obeaux 12/1,the official goings were gd,gd/sft,so she is capable of readying them

  7. I was wondering if anyone is subscribed to RACING MATRIX, a very good and very cheap online tipster. £24 for 3 months. going fine for 10 months, making excellent level stake profit, then no e-mails now for 5 weeks. tried sending e-mails, no reply, sent letter with sae, again no reply, cancelled subs with clickbank, resubscribed, still nothing. no more I can do to get it back! anyone still getting e-mails ?

  8. Nigel Twisto-Davies / FTO October 90+ days

    Distances shorter than 20f – 9/20 | 45% S/R | +£25.76 BFSP

    Wetherby 2.45 16F

    Robins Hill 10/1 > 15/2

    1. Well done Edmund- good little micro that! – my approach with those sept/oct trainers is to look at positive pointers, as opposed to micros like that – missed a couple of winners,plenty of losers, and that is another one.

      1. Josh,
        Being a greedy B…… I just thought that the 45% was too big at a value price, 10/1.
        Not too much of a risk at £5 EW.

        1. And how right you would be! A few ways in with his runners, may have to add that one to the list for next year! Did it well- those NTD horses at this time of year- if they are leading after last can be sure they will just keep galloping and quite hard to peg back. Most seem to have guts and a determined attitude. Whether that is in the blood or how they train them I don’t know. Great day for the yard.

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