Well it’s that time of year again to dust off what has been a trusty micro system over the last few seasons.
My Venetia Willaims micro system has been so successful that you have to think it will come to a juddering halt at some point.
The lack of rain concerns me- not for the system rules- as you will see the record on Good/Good to Soft is just fine- more so I don’t know how she trains them at home to get them fit but am sure turning them out in deep muddy fields is part of the routine- and as for most trainers so is working horses on grass. The ground may have been too firm for such work. So, there is some caution. Venetia’s are usually ‘race fit’ having not been on a race track for at least 90 days. Fingers crossed it is the same again…
So, the rather simple system..
- Venetia Williams
- November (check back end of October)
- Handicap Chase / Novice Handicap Chase / Beginners Chase
- Horse Runs Last 90 Days: NOT 1 Only (so 0 or 2+)
- 16/1 or shorter (guide)
Some points to note: –
- I have added in Beginner Chases…they are 2/13,8 places…+8 SP under the same rules and given those place stats we may as well throw them in!
- Those going off OVER 16/1 SP are currently 0/18, 2 places. One may go in at some point and all are worth a second glance, but the market has been some guide.
- 1 Run In 90 Days: Under the same rules, those that had just 1 run in the last 90 days (so most likely second run after seasonal debut most) are 6/63, 19 places… 9% win SR / -22 SP / AE 0.51…performing 49% below market expectations. There is some logic to this – mainly that the majority are usually ready to go first time up- and they do not come on for just the one run. They are primed to strike first time up. Those that are not may need a few runs to get going or just maintain their form…those with 2+ runs last 90 days being… 7/16,12 places… +23 SP.
- Going… there is much talk of Williams loving the mud. The heavier the better. That is certainly true but you can’t make money just backing those types sadly. I am sure there may be a way and that is another area for me to dive into no doubt! BUT, in November it doesn’t really matter as to the going… on Good/Good to Soft, same rules… 14/50,25 places… +62 SP. Nothing to worry about there. We just have to trust Venetia when she places them as to whether they will handle it.
OCTOBER… Well this weekend is one Venetia has had winners at before, including a 14/1 winner last year – it is pretty much November after all. I will post up any that qualify in the next few days. In previous years she has had on average 5-7 runners in October under the rules above- as yet she hasn’t had any I don’t believe. Being quiet before November is not unusual but maybe some more caution than usual, I am not sure.
Other Months… in DECEMBER with the same rules… 25/199,54 places… +17 SP. I will have a look to see if any more ways in for December. I am minded not to play around with the rules as above given there simply is no reason to at this stage.
ALL other months, under the same rules, as a comparison…(ie not November or December):
716 bets / 101 wins / 250 places / 14% win SR / -230 SP / AE 0.81
So, that’s it really. Many of us had a right good time of it last November. Many of hers get well backed and taking earlier prices can improve on those figures. Hopefully an exciting 4/5 weeks ahead.
There is one more trainer I want to keep an eye on this November and that is David Pipe. I tracked this micro angle on the blog last year without much success I think. His runners last November didn’t really perform but it is usually a good month for him- when he really starts to get going. IF that was an anomaly and it is back to normal here, this angle could be fun to follow in the coming weeks…
- David Pipe
- Handicap Hurdles
- Horse Runs 90 Days: NONE
14/1 or under SP…
67 bets / 15 win / 24 places / 22% sr / +88 SP / +115 BFSP / AE 1.71
In the last three seasons, 13/14/15 Pipe has been 1/7,3 places with those going off over 14/1, including one 40/1 whopper. So, the bigger ones are worth a second glance. As you can see he has the odd quiet year with this approach but with any luck he can repeat one of 2011,13 or 14! Well worth keeping an eye on, and if he has a bad year hopefully it won’t be too expensive to follow. His yard has had a few winners recently without firing on all cylinders.
I hope you have enjoyed this post. As always if you have any questions etc then ask away.
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