RESULTS: I have updated results for end week 4, based on 1 point win if just backing all selections systematically… read that post/report HERE>>>
ADDITION TO 4.35… getting into habit of checking once in evening and once in morning for fear of missing one…and looks like I have from last night so apoligies.
Qualifiers + notes + my view…
CHEPSTOW
4.35
Thunder Pass (hncp hurdles) UP 4/1>7/1
NOTE: Pipes’ going OK without being ‘in form’ (geegeez metrics,20%+ win SR, 51%+ win/place sr) 2/12,3 places last 14 days. This one makes handicap debut and in NH racing he isn’t that prolific with such types. 2/29,6 places last year, 8/87,28 places last two years. Interestingly he is 2/7,3 places at Chepstow last 5 years with handicap debutants be it over hurdles or fences. He is unexposed, cheekpieces back on and in theory more to come at some point if there is any ability.
Keep It Up Keira (all hncps) UP 7/1
NOTE: trainer in form last 30 days, 10/47,18 places. 4/41, 13 places with handicap debutants last 2 years, far from prolific but odd one goes in. He is 15/177,34 places with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off. This horse in the could be anything mould – ahead of mark, not very good etc. Market may offer some guidance. Impossible to say he doesn’t have some sort of chance.
5.10
Earls Fort (all hncps) WON 5/2 (big R4) > 1.375/1
NOTE: trainer in form last 30 days, 10/47,18 places. 4/25,12 places last 14 days.
BANGOR
3.15
Shantou Tiger DNQ WON (micro, going only IF SOFT)
(this angle tries to highlight those trainer’s whose horses go well when the surface is extreme- tried to find soft/heavy ground specialists predominantly- horse officially only qualifies if going is soft on this occasion – albeit any cut may actually inconvenience this ones chance)
NOTE: unlikely to be soft if weather forecast correct. As such won’t officially ‘qualify’ regardless of what he does.
4.15
Royal Plaza (all hncps) 2nd 10/3>9/4 (jockey may do that a bit different if had time again but entitled to be learning,went for home long way out)
NOTE: trainer in form, 5/25, 12 places last 14 days. Horse 0/9,5 places in career. Could be getting better as gets experience, looks like he raced keenly again LTO (hence the hood I assume) – maybe the number of placed efforts is due to having used up too much energy which pays in his finishing effort. Unsure. But, still time in his side and repeat of last run should put him thereabouts you would think.
Minella Fiveo (hncp hurdles) UP 10/1>20/1 (drift said it all)
NOTE: Smith not had many runners in recent months, but now 1/7 last 14 days. Trainer ‘only’ 7/107,26 places with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days. She is 7/79,17 places with handicap hurdlers returning more than 365 days off. So, she can ready them, just hard to find. Market may guide as to how ready he is, lightly enough raced for his age. 2/12 over hurdles.
Danceintothelight DNQ (micro, going, again only IF SOFT)
NOTE: As with McCains earlier, unlikely to officially qualify on this angle.
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My View?
Am I happy to leave any at this stage…. well, on paper there are no reasons you would want to leave any of these well lone. The market suggests that three of these have strong chances. I think I would want to see some signs of market life in the Sue Smith runner given the lengthy break but he could be a decent price and she can ready them.
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ANONYMOUS POLL (will close around 1pm)
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FEEDBACK…
My aim is to try and make these blog posts as worthwhile as possible. One of you has emailed in asking if I could put a recommended stake amount next to the horse. I am minded not to do that at the moment as I don’t want it to feel like ‘tipping’. I say that as first and foremost the stats are judged on on how they perform systematically. In part this approach is meant to remove too much subjective judgement (which will differ for us all, including what may be ‘value’)
I am comfortable highlighting those I won’t be having anything on and I will try and ensure my descriptions of those are as clear as possible. I will get these wrong sometimes, as I did with three last week. Those that I am backing with my own money will invariably have at least 1/2 point on usually, through to 1 point in most cases. But, take Troika Steppes. I personally had 1/2 point on EW, one of you had 2 points on the nose. We will all have different results and figures no doubt and to an extent this ‘service’/approach is meant to provide a starting point for your own punting, highlighting horses of interest.
But, as always I am happy to take on board any further feedback/recommendations for improvement.
Josh
6 Responses
Cracking stuff with the stats Josh, has made the membership well worthwhile. Personally didn’t back any of todays however as didn’t fancy but well in on the two winners (will serve me right!).
On to tomorrow and Royal Plaza in the 4.15 looks interesting based on its 3 length second lto behind Picamix. That one ran well in the Neptune Investment Hurdle at Cheltenham last Friday. Possibly wasn’t a truly run race as El Bandit had to force the pace, however considering El Bandit and Black Warrior are currently rated 133, you’d have to say Pickamix ran to 3-5lb below their rating for a 1 and 3/4 length beating?
On form looks the one to beat but may blow its chance if running too freely. Few in there who like to lead so hopefully that can benefit Royal Plaza in settling better. Featherstone produced a cracking ride on Kerrow at Aintree Sunday and can hopefully do the same tomorrow.
Hi Leon, cheers. Yet very pleased with how they are performing so far. If they can repeat last 4 weeks through to April we should come out well in front, however you engage with them! Ah shame you missed them but that is how it goes with this approach- we all have different approaches- as I like saying the ‘stats are the stats’ and rather objective, from there it is opinion really. I missed two winners last week (BallyBen + Gentleman Jon) and didn’t have as much on Golden Doyen as I could have – questioned his stamina and he stayed on very very well!! You will have more points on some winners than I will etc, will all even out! Only had 1/2 point on Ellison horse due to fitness concern- then i saw him pre race circling at start as RUK zoomed in, and my word he looked fit- so I had another 1/2 on- if hadn’t have seen that I would have stuck with 1/2. That is how it goes.
Anyway, Royal Plaza – yea I think 10/3, 3 /1 is ok personally in content of this race and having considered points you have just raised. Jockey is clearly tidy and Kings are hitting form now. First few furlongs/pre race, could be key to his chance. If settled he won’t be far away. IF he settles he probably takes all the beating here, if he doesn’t we know to be cautious moving forwards. I have had a go! As you say there is a bit of pace on, hopefully that helps. A repeat of that last run puts him bang there. Some will think 3s is short enough given concerns, but it is a game of opinion! Backing King’s runners here over time will see us just right.
No, fair play been nice seeing all the stats winners go in whether on or not. Takes the subjectivity out of studying form etc at times which can make this game hard. Defintely added value to my research so far this season.
Yea, 10/3 / 3’s just about ok for Royal Plaza I think too. King a trainer I really like and I hope he has some decent success like last year. Looks like he could have a decent day tomorrow. I have Wishing and Hoping in my tracker and I’m looking forward to seeing this one over a fence. Value at Risk has the fitness edge but really hasn’t took to fences so far.
Thunder Pass you highlighted looks interesting for Pipe. Based on its flat rating (mid 80’s) surely it can make a mockery of an opening mark of 95 over hurdles.
Will have these two as singles I think and add Earls Fort for a trixie who really should have won lto but was given a bit too much to do to make up ground on the eventual winner.
315 Shantou Tiger returns fresh and dropped in grade after 3 summer runs in better h. h’caps; chase form on good is Ok in this context and 8/1 would offer value
Superb Chris, well done. Comments always worth a read on here! Called that right.
Cheers Chris I went with your thoughts. backed Shantou Tiger at 10/1, also on Royal Plaza & Earl Fort but rule 4 turned my 7/2 into not much better than evens!!