NOTE: remember the notes in the brackets next to the horses name refer to the section of the TTP stats pack which the horse qualifies against – either in the general race types section or the micro angles section, or both.
LUDLOW
2.30
Bennachie (all hncps+hncp chase) UP
NOTE: Vaughan’s running well enough, 4/23,7 places last 14 days including two yesterday, 12/54, 17 places last 30 days…plenty of all or nothing efforts. Only third chase start, steps up in trip and has to prove he stays. But, you never truly know until they try.
Caspian Piper (all hncps + hncp chase) 3rd 18/1
NOTE: Vaughan again so same trainer form stats as above. Suspect Johns had the choice of the two but that could be nonsense. Horse is 0/7, 1 place in C4
All Fired Up UP 12s>33/1 (micro?? Distance… not sure if this trip is the new 24f, being 50 yards short. Maybe they have moved the start slightly/moved a bend… anyway, if this were 24f, and not 50 yards short of it, he would be a qualifier- I will count him as such here)
NOTE: Williams 0/10,4 places last 30 days, yet to fully fire but hopefully not far away from hitting form. Horse returns after a lengthy break- Williams can ready one if he wants to…he is 20/144,44p handicap chasers 60+ days, 2/20 track. This one has a bit of old form in the book from Ireland, 0/8, 4 places over fences. IF he was spot on here, I don’t think you could confidently rule him out. Market may give some indication.
4.50
Coeur De Fou (all hncps + hncp chase) 3rd 7/1
NOTE: TGs going ok, 2/14,7 places last 14 days. Horse drops into C5 for first time. He has rarely raced on such a sound surface so no idea how he will handle it, if at all. That would be a slight concern but if he lines up you would hope connections are happy with it. He is clearly fragile, 14th run of his career it seems, aged 11. Cheekpieces return here, they were not on the last day. Jockey 3/7,6 places in hunter chases so looks like he can ride a bit. Not many rules races. Assume he may be a relation of the trainer?…maybe this is some sort of plan/target.
Go On Henry (hncp chase) UP
NOTE: trainer 0/9, 1 place last 30 days. But a small enough yard and most of those were big prices. A fancied one ran well enough for the place, 9/2. New headgear, blinkers replace the blinkers- that change may be enough at a level like this to spark him up. 0/10,1p in career. Jockey 0/11, 1 place in career, most of those rides on this horse. The trainer WON this race last year.
***
CARLISLE
Could well be the first ‘winter’ meeting of the year run on genuinely soft ground…
3.55
BallyBen (all hncps) WON 9/2 (that is as wrong as you can call it really, seemed to relish the mud- Jefferson clearly worked magic)
NOTE: trainer ‘in form’ 3/9,9 places last 14 days. Third run for him so to a point previous form could be irrelevant given their approach/methods etc may lead to running unexpectedly in conditions- well that is my mindset with those who have had very few runs for a new yard. Horse is 0/4, 1 p in handicaps on soft, 0/3, 0 places in handicap chases. He has been better going LH, 0/7, 3 places RH
Basford Ben (hncp chase) 3rd 7/1
NOTE: Trainer 2/13,6 places last 30 days, they are going well enough. He is 1/4, 1 place in handicap chases 60+ days off. The last two seasons he has needed the run, including over CD last November. Horse is 4/7, 5 places over CD. Fair to say he likes it here.
4.30
Desert Island Dusk (all hncps) UP
NOTE: Trainer ‘in form’ 2/9, 4 places last 14 days. Barnes ‘only’ 3/43,11 places with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days. Horse is 0/4,1 place after break 60+ days albeit last of those runs at Perth, a closing second, suggests he can be readied. He is flat bred and there is a question over soft going- there would be a question about staying this trip at this stiff track- but again he hasn’t proved he cant/wont as yet.
***
My View:
Well unlike some days/races/horses…I can’t say when flicking through that any of these make you jump up wanting to lump on! Every single one has some sort of question to answer. At the same time if any of them won you wouldn’t fall of your seat. It is moderate fair on the whole.
I have looked at the 3.55 in depth on today’s free post and I don’t want to be on either of those stats picks above. I worry about the class/handicap mark+ the break for Basford Ben and the fact that he could get taken on for the lead here by a couple. BallyBen has a few questions also in context of his price. Trainer couldn’t be in any better form though.
At this stage I am probably most anti Caspian Piper and Desert Island Dusk- I have a few questions on him, ground maybe being most concerning, if it is genuinely soft.
All Fired Up is the only micro angle qualifier and given how they have been going I am wary about leaving him totally. He would be my preference in that race I think, with saver on Bennachie- albeit he has a class question. I may wait to see any glimmers of market support for the Williams horse.
4.50- you wouldn’t be shocked if either won for me given the headgear changes and other circumstances…George/George, Sheppard won race last year. Not a race to go mad on for me, or a day for that matter. At this stage I don’t think I will be having my own full point on any of them.
I am due to get one/some wrong soon enough, maybe a winner in every race!
This looks the perfect day for a POLL.
[poll id=”9″]
