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TIPS
3.55 Carlisle
Morney Wing – 1.5 points win – 7/1 (general) UP 4/1
Nakadam – 1.5 points win – 6/1 (general) UP 9/2*
*well if there is a race performance to knock your confidence and leave you smack bang on the ice cold tipping list it was that. Awful. Both well backed, neither ever in it at all. Couldn’t even use fitness as an excuse for either given how they went- never challenged/faded say, at any point really. BallyBen proved me wrong and seemed to handle the mud no problem, touched 7s at one stage, 9/2 SP. The write up was some sort of small mercy as I try and search for any sort of positive. I couldn’t have him at his morning price given my concerns, not a shock winner by any means- more baffled by run of selections.
Why?
These two look the most exciting horses in this race by far to me and are sure to relish what promises to be a stern test of stamina. They both have time on their side, finished last season in strong form and could have any amount to come over staying trips this year. In what looks like a fairly moderate field to me- horses who have been there and done it and are looking to repeat old form, these are the two who could progress beyond this level for me, starting today.
Morney Wing… well he can be a bit inconsistent but when he runs up to his best he is a decent staying chaser. In theory there should be more to come this season and they have come a long way here- that is some trek just for a fitness run so I hope it is a sign that he is ready to go. Charlie Mann can ready them after a break if he wants to, no problems there. If he can keep in touch and he jumps around fine, he should be staying on dourly up this hill. Given his upside potential this season he looked worth a go at 7s for me- that just allows that chance on fitness to be taken. As Chris points out below and as I also noted earlier in the week, he was taken out of an engagement closer to home. Maybe they want soft ground but the fact they come here today suggests he could be ready to go and they didn’t want to wait any longer- this is Mann’s first runner at the track, certainly in last 5 years. On paper it all makes sense at least! He is ‘in form’ as well, 2/10,3 places last 30 days.
Nakadam- he may be the more exciting of the two but I thought I would stick with even stakes on each. He won rather well the last day and as a 6yo is another who could have any amount to come this season. He is lightly raced and the booking of Moore is no bad thing- he has a decent record at the track from few rides. The trainer is 2/9,3 places with his chasers returning 60+ days so again, if he wants him ready, he will be here. There has been market support which boosts confidence on that score. Again ground and trip look fine to me- there will be no stamina questions. It could be he is best with a light weight on his back and he could have any amount of lead up his sleeve to play with in the early part of this season.
Hopefully these two are worth tracking through the year – you would think one or both may have a regional national or something in them, and heading into next season. We shall see if they live up to their promise…
Dangers…
BallyBen- I am not having him here at 7/2, 4/1…i have questions about him going RH, more major questions about soft ground, and a question as to his general level of form. The stable wasn’t firing when he last ran but he was 2/1 fav and that was poor. He could have needed the run but it was a weak race also. This is his time of year but I am happy for him to beat me at that price- this is the second run for new connections and their methods may mean he gets soft/ironed out any issues RH etc- but I have to take him on at that price. We will find much better 4/1 shots than him for me. Cue, bolting up!
Basford Ben- Will he wont he need the run? Certainly on his last two seasonal appearances, including in ideal CD conditions last November, he has. He is on a high mark now and this is deeper than those races at the back end of last season for me. 5s is fair maybe, but only that. He also won’t get an easy lead here which tempered enthusiasm and while soft is fine, he is better on a firmer surface for me. This one has won after a break but not for a few years now, and trainer only 4/64 with 60+ days runners in last two years. He will bring a smile to my face if he wins as you have to admire the horse, but he won’t carry any of my money this time.
I would be disappointed if one of those four doesn’t win – well rather disappointed if one of the selections doesn’t, but then I am always bullish.
Of the rest…
Benzel looks to have poor summer form for me and has something to prove at a track like this, on soft. He will be hoping to improve on the trainer’s record of 0/17,4 places with his handicap chasers at the track last 5 years. With his weight he has plenty to do if this turns into a slog. I may have read his profile wrong but am happy to leave. Whatsupwoody is a grand servant but this is deeper than recent races and he has stamina to prove, esp in this ground. And he is 11 now.
Voyage A New York is worth adding into trackers I think- I couldn’t help but notice he is 3/7,4 places in the Feb/March period, 0/6,0 p Oct-Dec. That could be the time to catch him, we shall see in a few months! He has needed the run on his last two reappearances and has some questions at this level. But, still only 7 and trainer won this race last year with…
Settledoutofcourt..who won a weaker renewal for me. He’d also had a run last year- 0/5,2 places 91-365 days rest. 0/8,1 p 8+ runners in handicap chases. He has questions, happy to leave. Harry The Viking doesn’t get any younger or any quicker for that matter. Very hard to win with and I can’t have him. He may need the run. IF he is fit here, you wouldn’t be shocked if he kept galloping when others had had enough. In that scenario maybe he could place, but there are more progressive rivals in here who I would like to think will beat him. His mark is dropping and I hope the jockey gets a good spin. He always looks like a horse who needs about 5 miles now. Hopefully they can pick up a race with him this year somewhere.
Lord Brendy has had a long time off and even if fit would have a few questions. Happy to leave him.
PACE…Basford Ben and Whatsupwoody should try and go forward. Settledoutofcourt can lead also and BallyBen can be up there. The two selections can race prominently enough and I hope they sit mid div, just tracking the pace. There should be no excuse if good/fit enough.
Good Luck.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
A couple of starting points of potential interest…
- 4.05 Newton A – Celtic Tune 16/1… UP 22/1Jonjo is 4/11,5 places with handicap debutants at the track which caught the eye. He is also 6/12,6 places with handicap hurdlers returning to the track after 60+ days off. The horse steps up in trip and ‘could’ have any amount in hand. On the downside Jonjo continues to be in and out and at this stage the market suggests he is just making up the numbers. But the market can get it wrong. Of come interest that Coleman was on also. Of some interest maybe that he isn’t up at Carlisle on Jonjos in the 3.55 as below. He has three rides at NA today.
- 6.45 Chelm- Awfaa- 13/2...UP 7/1 Stoutey is 2/6,3 places with his first time out 2 year olds at the track…and that is all we have to go on. Breeding looks promising. His yard could be in better form and he runs another in this, but Moore wouldn’t have had the chance to ride this one given Hannagan is free. There are a few with more experience and who could improve for recent runs, but those are the stats…
That is all.
JUMPS ANGLES
Sept/Oct Trainers
(don’t forget these notes can be found in the Free Reports/Systems tab…)
6/1 and 25/1 winners for these on Wednesday to add to the bumper profits. I would be lying if I said I had a full point on each- damn- but a nice return nonetheless. For Lavelle to get him to run like that is a positive sign for the season ahead hopefully.
J Ewart
3.20 Carlisle – Landmarque (all handicappers worth following)
E Williams
3.05 Ludlow- Canicallyouback (class positive+top 3 LTO)
4.15 Ludlow – Blue Court (top 3 LTO)
4.05 Newton A – Jonagold (handicap hurdle/top 3 LTO)
13 Responses
My jumps radar is a bit off at the moment and nothing stands out at tomorrows 3 meetings so its 7.45 chelmsford 10/1 betvic and Prosecute for Simcock/Harley.Trainer is still red hot formwise,is 8-37 for 3yo at the track and jockey is 3/11 riding his 3yr olds,hopefully can repeat the trick of last week
I just got round to reading the result of my bet today.Dealing River likes to lead or race prominently,what does Johnston do,holds him up!,as you said recently,where is Paddy Brennan when you want him,booting home a winner at Fontwell,the question is did trainer instruct him to hold DR up or did clever dick choose that option?
yep very odd Gerry. Maybe he wasn’t on a full going day or given there was some other pace on they thought would try something different. If instructions were to hold up it would make you think he wasn’t there to compete. Maybe they think his mark needs to come down. He certainly didn’t appreciate not leading.
Trainers with runners 200+ miles:
Carl. 3:55 Morney Wing 7/1
Has also come up in two more of my micros for jockey & jock/trainer. The horse was also withdrawn from an engagement earlier this week much closer to home. Trainer has never had a runner at the track, but not sure if that’s necessarily a positive, however the trainer is very shrewd.
Chris R.
Hi Chris, very interesting. Just about to dive into this race but he is one that caught eye last night as remember following him for a bit last season. Looked to have stayer all over him and with the pace on in this/the track IF he is A1 he could go well. Noted that he was entered up earlier in week also. Maybe wanting softer ground. Will have a proper look asap…
Good luck with the tips Josh – I hope that you can soon find the winning thread again. I look forward to backing your tips again once you find your form, which may be soon.
I know that Crimson Rosette, 6.45 Ch, is well thought of but is being backed.
Not much else to get excited about.
Cheers Martin, yep I look forward to refinding it also! I could do with getting back the losses from last few months, albeit Sept/Oct trainers and your good selves in the comments have helped plenty! Given way I have looked at last 5/6 chases I feel I am reading them well- just now refining the tipping bit!
Hi All
Just back home for the night before heading off to Donny for their 2 day meet tomorrow there is 1 x qualifier tonight
7.45 Chelmsford – Eltham 5.50 Josey Gordon for Robyn Brisland 9 rides, 3 wins, 7 places
Will have a look at Chelmsford for the “Stallions” this evening and will post up as soon as
Cheers
Steve
First 2 races at Chelmsford below:
1M 2F – Top Draw 4,1,6,13,7
5.45 Chelmsford – No Bet
1M – Top Draw 3,1,4,2,5
6.15 Chelmsford – Sufi (Pivotal 9. 1, 4) Drawn 3
Stallions of Interest
5.45 Chelmsford – John T Chance (Lawman 14,3.3)
5.45 Chelmsford – Ravenoak (Ravens Pass 5,1,1)
6.15 Chelmsford – Addicted to You (Medicean 11,3,5)
Rest of Chelmsford card:
7F – Top Draw – 14,10,3,6,4
6.45 – Awfaa (Shamardal 4,1,2) Drawn 10
7F – Top Draw – 14,10,3,6,4
7.15 – Curios Fox (Bertolini 1, 0, 1) Drawn 3
1M – Top Draw – 3,1,4,2,5
7.45 – Mezzotint (Diamond Green 5,1,4) Drawn 1
1M 51/2F – Top Draw – 1,4,8,10,5
8.15 – Lord Topper (Sir Percy 3,1,1) Drawn 1
6F – Top Draw – 1,4,2,6,10
8.45 – No Bet
6F – Top Draw – 1,4,2,6,10
9.15 – Ryan Style (Desert Style 3,0,2)
Stallions of interest left out due to draw or / and having another selection in race
6.45 Crimson Rosette (Teofilio 2,1,2)
6.45 Sea Tea Dea (Archipenko 2,1,1)
7.15 Arize (Approve 2,1,1)
7.15 Pyla (Footstepsinthesand 5,1,3)
7.45 Boots & Spurs (Oasis Dream 8,2,3)
7.45 Marbooh (Dark Angel 4,1,2)
8.15 Potters Lady Jane (Sir Percy 3,1,1)
8.15 Lord of the Valley (Sir Percy 3,1,1)
8.15 Satish (Dansili 4,1,2)
8.45 Humour ( Invincible Spirit 8,2,5)
8.45 Cadland Lad (Lilbourne Lad 6,1,4)
9.15 Captain Scooby (Captain Rio 9,2,3)
Cheers
Steve
Well done Steve
Lord topper touched 80/1 in running was tempted.only had a small touch on it but I’m happy 🙂 over 1m again
Not a good day Josh – I sense your frustration – Keep the faith get your head up and stick with what you know is tried and tested and you will be fine.
Onward and upward
yep awful Jo, very poor. That happens- clearly easier to take when in some sort of tipping form! – and that is the worst that two have run for a while, fingers getting burnt for trusting two on fitness maybe-albeit the second and third were making reappearances etc. One of those. Frustrating indeed but I will keep trying and will get into form at some point.