GUEST POST…if you missed Ben Aitken’s Guest Post on this blog ‘Trends Horses’ you can read that HERE>>> (will reside in Free Reports/Systems tab also for future reference)
TIPS
none.
note…well the chases I have been looking at recently have gone well enough to suggest my eyes are not too bad – I am clearly having problems with my tipping decision making which isn’t the first time and clearly plenty to improve on. The last 6 chases I have looked at on here, and discussed…
Owen Na View, WON 9/2 (not tipped) / Carrigdhoun WON 10/1 (not tipped) / Princeton Royale (second, tipped) / By The Boardwalk WON 6/1 (not tipped) / Best Boy Barney WON 4/1 + Cowards Close UP (were two I focused on in holding note, not tipped) / Caulfields Venture (3rd,tipped)
So, there are obvious positives and obvious negatives amongst that lot. Just 1 point on each would have been fine! I am reading them ok, and the horses are running well. I have taken on the right favs as well, bar Princeton race but that was close enough. Hopefully I can start tipping some and get of the fence a bit more. A frustrating period, again.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
none today.
JUMPS ANGLES
Sept/Oct Trainers
NTD
1.50 Worc – Foxtail Hill WON 6/1 (ticks 1 run 90 days box and rest pattern)
4.05 Worc – Mont Choisy UP (ticks 1 run 90 days box)
5.10 Worc – Ballycash UP – add to trackers, he looks ripe for attacking handicaps now- travelled really well into this before tiring with a few to go….NTD has them fit enough to finish a race if he wants- he either needs stepping up in trip and/or they left a bit to work on still...(1 run 90 days, and rest pattern. Also QUALIFIES on that other non-hncp hurdle NTD micro)
E Lavelle
2.45 Font – Parish Business WON 25/1>14/1 (October runner…yard not as hot as ideally would be case maybe)
2.20 Worc- Mrs Robin UP (October + 1+ Run 90 days)
E Williams
4.05 Worc – Hold Court UP (ticks handicap hurdle + class)
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio
Hurdle
4.05 Worc – Nexius UP (clear top weights)
16 Responses
Harry skelton who would normally ride Dealing River 1.50 Worcester is tied to Kitchapoly the favourite,who might possibly be above these,Johnston is an interesting booking in his place.The horse likes to lead or be prominent and Johnson is quite good using forcing tactics,Hopefully he may be able to expose any rustiness from fav,there are plenty of dangers too apart from this one but will take the risk at 6/1
Hi Josh / All
Well an excruciating evening at Kempton not so much the selections which performed well in the main with 3 x 2nds, 1 3rd 1 4th and 2 nowhere but the ones i left out because of the draw and normally i would list these in the footnote but due to hotel internet was very limited…..The pain is as follows:
5.40 A Sure Welcome (Pastoral Pursuits 3,2,2))WON 16.79
6.10 I Wouldn’t Bother (Captain Gerard 1,1,1) 7th 155.19
6.40 Hermana (Heliostatic 1,1,1) 10th 9.72
7.10 Candesta (First Defence 1,1,1) WON 7.93
7.40 Bazzat (Roderic O Connor 2,1,2) WON 3.25
8.10 Bluegrass Blues (Dark Angel 3,1,2) WON 15.68
8.10 Column (Mount Nelson 1,1,1) 4th 3.35
8.40 Dream River (Holy Roman Emporer 1,0,1) 2nd 9.26
9.10 Rigolletto (Ad Valorem 1,1,1) 9th 24.83
9.10 Heartsong (Kheylef 5,1,4) 5th 28.00
So 4 winners were missed along with 2 possible forecasts Aargh….Only solace to take from this is another lesson learned. Clearly on polytrack and especially Kempton this stallion data is gold and is overiding any draw bias and certainly worth persisting with so onwards to tomorrow and another evening card at Kempton…
1M – Top Draw 2,7,14,6,1
5.50 Kempton – Pike Corner Cross (Cape Cross 4,2,3) Drawn 14
1M – Top Draw 2,7,14,6,1
6.20 Kempton – Kissoffire (Elusive Quality 1,0,1) Drawn 7
6F – Top Draw 5,7,1,12,2
6.50 Kempton – No Selection
7F – Top Draw 4,6,11,3,8
7.20 Kempton – Nibras Bounty (Bahamian Bounty 3,1,2) Drawn 3
7F – Top Draw 4,6,11,3,8
7.50 Kempton – No Selection
7F – Top Draw 4,6,11,3,8
8.20 Kempton – Ripoil (Alfred Nobel 1,1,1)
7F – Top Draw 4,6,11,3,8
8.50 Kempton – No Selection
1M 3F – Top Draw 15, 9, 7, 11, 13
9.20 Kempton – Oyster Card (Rail Link 3,1,3) Drawn 9
Footnote – Stallions of interest left out due to draw and / or other selection in race
5.50 – Thecornishbaron (Bushranger 1,1,1)
6.20 – Magic Beans (Pastoral Pursuits 3,1,1)
6.50 – Compas Cobie (Kheylef 5,1,4)
7.20 – Haiai (Dark Angel 6,2,3)
7.50 – Yourartisonfire (Dutch Art 5,1,2)
8.20 – Alejandro (Dark Angel 6,2,3)
8.50 – Home Again (Bahamian Bounty 4,1,1)
8.50 – Mr Marchwood (Medicean 4,1,1)
Cheers
Steve
Great work Steve
Just a quickie have you noticed any difference in results on distance.i see all last nights winners was on 1m +
Cheers
Hi Jamie
I hadn’t noticed that but will have a thorough look once I’m back home and see what distance all the winners have won over
Cheers
Steve
Hi Steve/all…..it’s a killer when that happens. My pc and laptop and both been acting up so I couldn’t access to have a bet. Turned out to be a Wi-Fi problem.
Duh!.
Hi Tony
Hopefully you have that sorted now too and we see a winner or 3 tonight……
Cheers
Steve
Hi Josh/Bloggers
I got an email from Betting insider school with regards the old chestnut following Beaten Fav’s and looking at trainers who “specialise” in BF’s running next time out. Is there any mileage in narrowing the field down with this angle, anyone got info on this angle.
Todays sel is Mont Choisy one josh’s sel 4.05 W 6/1
Hi Mickey…yep I saw that in my emails this morning (get access as I write for them etc)
I have never looked at that angle albeit there is plenty of logic there. Will add it to the list of things to have a look at…
In theory they were fav as expected to go well, maybe by connections and on form…so I suppose them running in similar conditions as last time out would be of some interest…as maybe a quick turnaround? Esp if they didn’t complete for any reason…just thinking aloud- could be a few ways to slice and dice, albeit haven’t looked at rules as with Betting Insiders approach.
I would suggest they ‘specialise’ in sense that certain trainer will be better than others at A) knowing when their charge is set to run a blinder, based on their work etc and B) good at placing their horses, esp in handicaps they can get competitive in.
I suppose, logically, you would want a ready excuse for a poor run LTO- given they underperformed against market expectations and it can be dangerous to try and make too many excuses for poor runs.
With NTDs today..suppose the thinkin is that ground may have been excuse last day, and may not have been fit enough…but if beaten fav, which he was- if any of that had to do with yard that suggests he was fit, so that may not be an excuse. Maybe hope is better ground sees him perform here. Clearly expected more LTO.
Josh
Multitask, from the Gary Moore stable, continues up the weights but may still be improving? 5/1.
Hajaj, 7.20 KP, may be useful, 4/1.
Not much else really!
I dont like complicating things, but i thought Evan Williams was a Oct trainer? and 4.05 Worc he has Hold Court running against Mont Choisy of NTD. From the research you did Josh EW does best with HHs and cl123s. Also this horses form at track reads 121. 14/1. I’ve backed Mont Choisy, but i think i’m talking myself into having a go on HC aswell!
Cheers James…it is always a good idea to point out my brain freezes- which happen every now and then! – Not sure why I missed his… Quite right…I won’t highlight all Oct runners, as there is no monthly pattern as such against some other months, but will focus on those positive points.
HC- based on that run two starts ago, despite 10ln rise, cant say he cant win- albeit I would like to think there are a handful of less exposed ones in here who in theory should have more in hand- but he is one of the ‘been there and done recently it horses’
Ole! Foxy Foxtail obliges!
Remarkable jumping improvement from the horse. Only had a small one though since he couldnt even seem to handle the famously easy Perth fences
Anyway, cant complain. Hope you were on too
yep good to see him do that…his jumping…assume you may have missed his mis-hap the last day- his jumping was fine, and shows an F can sometimes be misleading. One if his front legs got caught in reins as he jumped fence, meaning he couldn’t get it out to land on. Jumped that fence well enough, as he did here.
Winners a winner though and glad you were on, and nice of Lavelle to chip in with a 25/1 shot also!
Hi Josh
I see another couple of excellent results today for the Jumps angles, October has been a brilliant start for the portfolio well done mate
Cheers
Stece
Hi Steve…cheers…I appear to have rediscovered an approach to trainer micro angles which works! Across the portfolio..a bit of different thinking/different starting points..and for Sept/Oct that ‘positive pointers’ approach, which is what I now do for ‘big meeting notes’ also,seems to be a much better way to do it- rather than a rigid micro systems say with plenty of ‘rules’- simple can be best.
i think those trainers much be 70 odd points up now in just over 6 weeks– I won’t complain at that, and only wish I had more confidence to put 1 full point on them all!! Still, my betting bank looking healthier than it did,.
Good luck tonight,
Josh
Well done Josh…a couple of nice winners….I only managed 15s on Parish Business, but with Foxtail Lily and Tap Tap Boom [ a system horse which has been failing] at 10/1..it made a comeback for me and pulled me back well.
Well done again Josh.