Today I have a very special guest post for you from Ben Aitken over at Narrowingthefield.
This post looks at what Ben calls ‘Trends Horses’. It is an approach I really enjoy and in truth should do more of myself. In fact today’s tip in the 3.10 Exeter could be called a ‘Trends Horse’ given his profile fresh, over CD, on the ground and with first time headgear. We shall see how he goes!
I have Ben to thank for sparking my interest in ‘Trends Horses’ or what I may call ‘Horse Profiling’- when you read the following post you will see what an interesting area of research it is.
Ben has kindly shared 4 trends horses from what is an exclusive report for his NarrowingTheField Members. I would add these to any trackers and with any luck, over time, they will more than pay their way.
Enjoy the read,
ps. It is fair to say Ben wouldn’t have thought much to my Fox Appeal wager the other day!! It is a game of opinions after all 🙂 He was proved right this time…
Over to Ben…
NTF Trend Horses
Trend Horses have been a staple of my personal punting approach for a long time. I’ll happily spend hour upon hour digging through the CV of a group of horses, looking for patterns and profiles in their wider form so that I can compile a list of the exact conditions they excel under (as well as the conditions they are not as effective under). I make it my job to know as much about certain horses as I possibly can so that I’m ready to strike when conditions suit. Indeed there are some horses I will back regardless of the opposition if they have their prime conditions, so confident am I that they will excel under the conditions they face in the race they are about to contest.
Despite running a flat service throughout the summer months (Badly Drawn Horse) my brain never really leaves the National Hunt game. I actually supply my free list with a ‘Summer Stunners’ guide at the end of May, detailing 12 horses I think they can profit from during the summer jumping season. This guide is in effect a form of ‘Trend Horse Profiling’ as I highlight each runners ‘prime conditions’, the areas I think are best suited for the horse to run to it’s full potential, and I’m delighted to say these guides have turned over some excellent profits over the past few summers. This summer (June – September 2016) the Summer Stunners pulled in over 40 points profit to Betfair SP.
In previous seasons on my full jumps subscription service (Narrowing The Field) I’ve explored Trend Horses to a certain extent but never fully unleashed it upon members with any great depth. This year, however, I’m changing that. I spent many hours this summer delving into my own personal mound of National Hunt notes, amassed over the past few National Hunt seasons, and compiled a guide of over 100 Trend Horses, detailing those horses prime conditions, the exact conditions where I feel we can profit from them during the 2016/17 National Hunt season. This guide is now available to my full NTF members and that’s in addition to all the normal analysis methods I’ve been supplying my members with for the past seven seasons.
We, NTF Members and I, will be tracking these horses throughout the season, waiting for the right time and correct conditions to get our money down and profit from the ‘Trend Horses’.
When I’m using this type of trends analysis I’m not necessarily looking for a horse to tick all the boxes/positive conditions I’ve highlighted for them and, as always, I’m using it as a guide to help me assess a horse’s overall chances in any given race. Clearly if all boxes are ticked then brilliant, however, you can be waiting a very long time for some horses to get bang-on-all-boxes-ticked conditions and you do need to be a flexible to a certain extent when considering a horse’s ideal conditions compared to what it faces in any given contest.
As an exclusive for you guys here on Racing To Profit here are four horses from the full guide to put in your notebook…
FOX APPEAL (E Lavelle): Updated 14/10/16
Best form in fields of 13 or less – 511113221334152283024 (6/21) compared to form off 03905U3907 (0/10) in 14+ fields
At his best with cut in the ground – form on Good to Soft or softer is 51311013221331522U090 (6/21) compared to form on Good of 09544833247 (0/11)
Best in Nov, Dec and Jan – form of 11231311315220 (6/14) compared to Feb to Oct form of 359045024U83390247 (0/18) – has placed on 3 of his 5 October runs
Strong R-H Track form – 01112131522U3094 (5/16) compared to form on L-H Tracks of 51390353483027 (1/14) *Also has a 2nd on Fontwell’s fig. 8 chase track
Possibly doesn’t quite handle very undulating tracks – form of 0908307 (0/6)
Best at C2 level & below – 501311015212327 (5/15) compared to form at Listed level+ of 9321334452U830904 (1/18)
Strong Handicap form from OR149 & below – 202101147 (3/9) (OR 150+ he is 943308U (0/7))
It took a long time for the handicapper to release him back down the weights but he starts 2016/17 on OR 143 and given his conditions you would be disappointed should he not manage to win from that mark.
My current thoughts on Fox Appeal – He’s been well fancied for his first two starts so far this term but for me he’s just not had his conditions. Indeed I thought conditions were bang against him on his last start and I really didn’t get the money coming for him. I did, however, think he ran pretty well considering and I liked what I saw as it fully suggested to me that he will be winning when they get him in a race with the correct conditions. He should get significantly better openings in the coming weeks and the small drop in the weights to OR 138 makes him even more of an attractive proposition. Punters are hopefully starting to go off him a bit and with a bit of luck that will give juicer odds on him in the future. Give him his conditions and he wins comfortably off his current mark.
SPLASH OF GINGE (N Twiston-Davies): Updated 14/10/16
Best after shorter breaks – Form after a break of 34 days or less is 140PF106213123P7U306 (4/20) compared to 444377P4 (0/8) after a break of 36 days+
Prefers a bit of cut underfoot – Form on Good to Soft or softer is 0F211416341P63P77UP6 (4/20) compared to 3442704 (0/7) on Good ground
Doesn’t seem to handle Right-Handed tracks – Form of 4633P (0/5) going RH compared to 0F1164231244177UP3064 (4/21) on LH tracks
Probably not up to G1 or G2 level – Form in the top 2 levels of 3302P77P36 (0/10) compared to 46442411316F1P04 (4/16) at Grade 3 level and below
Possibly doesn’t stay past 2m5f – Form of 643410144221736P763F14 (4/22) over 2m5f or shorter compared to P37PU0 (0/6) over 2m5.5f+
If you pull those five angles together (running within 35 days | Good to Soft or Softer | Left-Handed track | G3 level and below | 2m5f or shorter) you get the following form string – 1F16117. That’s all 4 of his career wins, with the fall (F) being in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham when he was travelling best of anything behind the runaway leader.
My current thoughts on Splash Of Ginge – Conditions were not to suit on his last start at Chepstow but he ran very well for a very long time in that race and I think that was a firm indicator that he’s ready to get back in the winner’s enclosure before too long. He’s now 0/7 on Good and 0/8 DSLR 36+ so it’s no surprise he finished weakly in that contest and he’ll improve for the outing and for when the ground softens up. OR 137 is well within range for him and he’s well worth keeping on the radar.
ERICHT (N Henderson): Updated 23/09/16
All wins in races worth less than 8k to the winner – Form of 117P21271113221 (7/15) compared to 5435U08936P9P5P9600 (0/19) in races worth 11k+ to winner
Doesn’t seem to stay beyond 2m5f – Form of 121163320072P11395P051156P8 (7/27) over 2m5f & less compared to U79249P (0/7) over 2m6.5f+
At his prime in the December to February period – 315P12718510111 (7/15) compared to March-November form of 65P9P099627P33204U2 (0/19)
All (turf) wins on Good to Soft or Soft – 1221138P5P040311U5517 (6/21) compared to 6202379P939P (0/12) on Good ground
Doesn’t seem to handle Cheltenham (0/11, 2 places) | Strong Kempton form (115517) | Strong February form (10111) | If you pull his four main conditions together (less than 8k – 2m5f or less – Dec-Feb – Good to Soft & Soft) then you get a form line of 113217111 (6/9).
My current thoughts on Ericht – He had prime conditions at Kempton in February and duly did the job in fine style. He was, however, raised a hefty 9lbs for the win to OR 135. He then found himself running under conditions that just didn’t favour him and unsurprisingly fired in three disappointing runs. The upshot of that, however, is that he started to find himself slipping back down the weights and will start this season on OR 131. Being that he has placed off as high as OR 137 previously it’s not inconceivable that he could win off that mark although a few more pounds down the weights to get him cherry-ripe wouldn’t go amiss.
JOHNNY OG (M Keighley): Updated 01/10/16
Yet to win outside of Soft or Good to Soft ground – B76F14111516 (5/12) compared to P652 (Heavy) & 067P (Good) (0/8)
Best in single figure fields – Form of 17116661541 (5/11) in fields of 9 or less compared to 65B2P7P0F (0/9) in fields of 10+
Yet to prove he stays past 2m3f – Form of 561111P5067761 (5/14) over 2m3f & shorter compared to 62PB4F (0/6) over 2m4f+
All wins in races worth less than 10k – 11P171657B42160 (5/15) compared to 5P66F (0/5) in races worth 12.5k or more to winner
He doesn’t seem to enjoy Very Undulating tracks as he is 0/7 on such tracks (5/13 on less testing tracks) | If you pull all his conditions together and remove Very Undulating tracks you get a form line of 111117 (5/6).
My current thoughts on Johnny Og – The 7yo rattled off 4 wins from 8 starts over fences last term and ended up contesting the 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival. He fell 2 out there but had led the field along for most of the contest and only started to give way at the 3rd from home. He starts the season on OR 132 and although that’s maybe near the ceiling of his abilities he’s only had 9 chase starts and there could potentially still be a bit more room for improvement, especially when faced with his favoured conditions.
Happy National Hunt punting!
Ben Aitken (NTF)
Would You Like To Join His Full Service?
Given Ben has kindly shared the information above it would be a bit rude of me if I didn’t tell you a bit more about his service. As I have said in previous emails Ben shares some of the best free stuff around – including those Summer Stunners which pulled in decent profits. If you like quality information/reports like this then his free list is a must join- which you can do HERE>>>
Ben also runs one of -if not THE- most interesting and comprehensive jumps service around. Now, it isn’t a tipping service, so it won’t be for everyone. It is a case of using information he provides in a way that suits your approach to punting. The main part is his big race analysis- using trends and his unique approach to Dosage (working out whether the horse may have the stamina/speed/genetic make up, for certain races), as well as pace analysis, to home in on a shortlist and his fancies.
But, as you have seen above, his service is much more than this. You will get the other 96 Trends Horses, plus exclusive and in depth weekend notes, trainer micro angles plus much more. Many of Ben’s members never leave as they see it as an essential companion to their jumps punting.
It is a great community over there and Ben works tirelessly on your behalf.
It is also a bit different from what I do with my daily jumps notes, based on my stats pack,so I don’t mind telling you about his work 🙂 Arguably they go well together!
For those of you who like to think about the game in a different way- or to read reports that make you think differently, who like to use information to help with your own thinking and to look at horses that many others ignore, Ben’s Narrowing The Field service could be just for you…
Like I said, it won’t be for everyone. I am confident that those of you who give it a go will really enjoy yourselves. Even if you just joined for one season it will help your punting in years to come- it did mine, that is for sure! But, I doubt you will want to leave.
That page above is worth a few minutes of your time and if it isn’t for you, no worries. I hope you have enjoyed his free giveaways and this blog post. Do make sure you join his free list!
All the best
p.s discover a new jumps punting world HERE>>>
p.p.s If you have any questions, do post away. I am sure Ben won’t mind answering a few