FREE DAILY POST: 18/10/16 (complete)

Well, that was a thrilling game of football at Anfield! The view from high up in the new stand was superb, and that was about the only highlight. Based on chances created, a draw was probably a fair result. Both teams seemed a bit off with the ball and there was plenty of huff and puff from Liverpool without any quality when it mattered. Awful first half as well. Very poor. There is no right or wrong way to play football and United came for a clean sheet first, which is within their right. Albeit when we head to Old Trafford I hope we risk defeat in the pursuit of victory! 🙂 Football is meant to be a form of entertainment after all. Each to their own. That is enough football talk….

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TTP: Jumps Notes Results Update

Running Total: End Week 3

General Race Types:12/72,22p =  +6.65points

Micro Angles: 9/39,13 p = +31 points

Total including multiple qualifiers: 21/111,35 p = +37.65 points

Total 1x  1 point only : 17/96,29p =  +16.65

Bonus Stats: 1/7, 1 p = -3

A solid enough start for the stats guide. I would have bitten your hand off for those results three weeks ago and I am particularly happy with the micro systems. I think we may have avoided 15-20 losers as well, which adds to any profits- or at least not bet as much on them as some of the winners maybe. As always you can always try out the Members Club HERE>>>

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Onto today’s action…

TIPS

3.10 Exeter

Caulfields Venture – 1 point win – 4/1 (bet365/betfred/PP/others) * 3rd 4/1> 15/2*

*drift was a bit worrying pre race there and this time he ran as such. Tipping chase losers and bottling tipping chase winners is the story of the last few days and so it continues. I would have backed him at 15/2 this morning, and then have been put off when no money came. I dont often like second guessing jockey bookings- maybe of interest that Coleman was on Jonjos, but then I don’t know if he had the choice to ride CV (won on him plenty) or whether Jacob got first refusal…

Given his profile I have decided I will be more hacked off if he wins at 4s and I haven’t touched him here. On his profile he just looks the stand out, obvious choice here- not often the obvious pays off so we shall see. He just looks like a classic ‘profile’ horse really- he is 3/3 at Exeter. He is 4/8,4 places returning after breaks of 91-365 days. 2/3 in handicap chases returning 121-365 days. He has returned after breaks in October, over CD, the last twice to record victories. He has won in first time cheekpieces. He has won in first time visor. And now he gets the blinkers for the first time. He is only 1lb above that last winning mark. He also races prominently enough- or does do here- sitting just behind the leaders. Jacob does ride him for the first time here which is a slight niggle and he had better not do a Fox Appeal and sit him near the back. It should be clear after the first few fences what we are going to get as he usually travels well in his chases here. I did have a look at Rock Of Leon given he won over CD LTO in exactly the same conditions really – 3m, good to firm. He did it in a time of 5m 51 seconds, and had to work for it. CV won his race here last year, same conditions, in 5m45 seconds. And he won with a bit more to come if needed I think.

So, given all of that above- that profile- which indicates a good run (when he won here last October that was on the back of a PU also) should be expected, I would feel a bit sick if he hacked up at 4s here. I wouldn’t want shorter than that but in the context of this race it is fair enough.

The Dangers…

Well Wizards Bridge heads the market and I suppose he has kind of had a run- the race was void LTO with still a circuit to go and I suppose they were lobbing along at that point. He could still need the run and has done after his 2 breaks before. Of more concern I think is the ground- his best form is with soft in the going and that would make me cautious about taking that price. He also has only won novice handicap chases. He has a few letters in his recent form profile and can take the odd fence with him. This is only his 10th chase though. But, I couldn’t have him at that price.

Miss Serious- I have watched her last two races again- for some reason they hold her right out the back which tempers any great enthusiasm. She benefited form a pace burn up two starts ago to my eye. The last day she left too much to do. That form has some substance. She is also quite a small horse and I wonder with these fences/undulations/being held up – whether her jumping will stand up. A slight niggle there. She has needed every yard of that 26f as well, dropping back to 24f here. So, some questions albeit she is unexposed so I wouldn’t be shocked if she played a role.

Fact of The Matter is another who you could say are unexposed over fences (arguably 6 in here, which again makes me a bit cautious as to the race). He steps up in trip and has that to prove. Given how he won 2 starts ago over 2m4f, you would have to say that last run was disappointing. This is a deeper race than those as he steps up in class here. A few questions to answer but the distance may unlock more.

Easy Street – well he is unexposed over fences but now has questions to answer. Jonjo is 0/8, 0 places with handicap chasers here returning 60+ days off. He has fitness/wellbeing/recent form questions to answer and over fences you don’t want to be backing many like that long term. Happy to him to beat me. He has also only won novice handicap chases also. Needs to step up again.

Rock Of Leon- well based on those times, if CV runs his race, he will be well beaten here. I think that was a poor race LTO and I don’t know how good he is. But, he handles conditions and that is something. He stays and the ground is no problem. Needs to step forward again though.

The two Pipe horses…they are both characters who both have questions to answer. Skylander – he was very poor when last seen over fences before returning to hurdles for a time. He is a character and has a few jumping niggles. I was happy to leave him. Likewise For N Against – steps up in class here having won some weak enough handicap chases, before blowing out over hurdles LTO. He will run ok. I think a few in here have to fail and not run their races, for either to win this. Famous last words.

PACE- For N Against should take them along. He is the only out and out front runner. Snowden’s may be up there but was held up the last day, having led time before that. Wizard’s will track the pace as should the selection. There should be no excuse in terms of pace set up.

So, all in all, 4s looked ok in the context of this race. If CV runs like he has done the last two Octobers here, we will get a run for our money.

GL.

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

A bit of crossbar rattling on Monday…3rd, 3rd, 2nd.

None today.

JUMPS ANGLES

Sept/Oct Trainers

NTD

2.40 Exet – Verygoodverygood 3rd 5/2 (ticks extreme weight box, and rest pattern 21-60 days)

Lavelle

3.10 Exet – Caulfields Venture 3rd 15/2 (all October runners worth backing, or have been)

FlAT/AW ANGLES

J Fanshawe Kempton

8.10 – Column (any odds) UP

Systems Test  

Flat- OneTrackTrainers

1.50 Yarm – Moll Anthony (16/1< guide) DNQ 66/1

2.50 Yarm – Lulu The Rocket (16/1< guide) DNQ 200/1

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That will be all for today.