Qualifiers for now…
Cuil Rogue (all hnpcs/hncp hurdles…micros class+Horse runs this season) 16/1 UP
NOTE: Trainer 1/4, 1 place last 14 days. Trainer and jockey are 5/26,11 places in handicap hurdles together, first time they team up here in handicap hurdles. Only the horse’s 3rd handicap hurdle. Drops down in trip by 3 furlongs from recent runs. He is either a weak finisher/finds little or this could be want he needs given how he has run recently.
Carrigdhoun (all hncps) 7/1 WON 10/1
NOTE: Barnes 1/5,2 places in last 14 days ‘in form’. Horse is 1/4,2 places in handicap chases 60+ days off. Has been well beaten in last two reappearances in October but possible excuses for those. Missed 2014 so could be argued he may race like a 10yo! Fairly lightly raced given his years. Now below his last winning mark.
Jovial Joey (all hncps) 10/1 UP 16/1
NOTEL Barnes ‘in form’ as above. 0/5,2 places with handicap debutants last two years. Steps up by about 1/2 a mile from last run. The ‘distance move’ stats in geegeez ( when trainer moves them up or down by 20% from last run over jumps) are decent… 7/27,11 places last 2 years, +41 SP.
Baysbrown (all hncps,hncp hurdles… micros class) 3/1 2nd
NOTE: Not much to add here, same Richards form stats as above. Won LTO, Ok recent ‘summer’ form maybe. Carlisle very different track from Perth.
BONUS (novice hncp chase)
3.15 – The Herds Garden 12/1 2nd
4.25 – Kilronan Castle 6/1 UP
NOTE: for both, McCain is ‘in form’ – 3/7,4 places last 14 days.
Magnolia Ridge (all hncps) 10/1 UP
NOTE: Trainer 0/9, 0 places last 30 days, 0/5, 0 places last 14 days – plenty of those have been 10/1+. Horse 2/7,3 places in handicap hurdles. Given ‘in running’ comments from some of recent runs, and based on that Sedgefield run, you would think this step back up in trip may help.
My starting point with these is to try and put a line through a few, those I am happy to leave for one reason or another- poor recent form, obviously not suited to race conditions or some negative trainer stat of sorts say. With all of those above you couldn’t confidently say none can win for me. The one at the bottom of the pile would be Magnolia Ridge – he did actually win over 16f at Hexham a few runs back which makes that last run rather poor. And his wins over the summer have been in awful quality races. He could be up against it, but is 10s. Carrigdhoun- well its a shame there are not 8 runners in this as he would have been an EW bet of interest I think. This race looks all about the fav and whether he is A1 here (market suggests so) and can build on that last win. He did take a liberty at a couple of fences that day. I can’t say Carrigdhoun won’t give him something to think about and he could be best of the rest. He has a decent record fresh, or has done in the past. Going mad on 11 yos clearly never that wise though.
Cuil Rogue looks interesting and given the stats and the move down in trip, I can’t let him go off at 14s/16s without anything on. It could be he is just out of form but we shall see. Likewise both in the 5.30 look interesting enough to my eye, albeit Richard’s charge may be short enough for me personally. But he could build on that last win.
Bonus…of the two there I think Kilronan Castle looks most interesting but those bonus stats are such where you trust them or not I think- this one hasn’t raced over fences in public so always dangers with that type.
Good luck whatever you play on…