A good day across the blog on Wednesday, which is always welcome. The Sept/Oct trainers kept their decent form going taking that tally to +34.5 points. Owen Na View did exactly as I hoped he would in stats/angles section and there was an 11/2 winner in the Members post to keep up the good mood. Now, just to tip a bloody winner!
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5.00 Carlisle – None…
Looks an interesting enough race- the market suggests Three Faces West UPis ready and here to perform but I think you are mad taking that price on one making their return after a break. But, clearly he is expected to hack up and if he builds on his last run he may do. On only his 4th chase start there could be plenty more to come from him this season. While I don’t want to be with him, I don’t necessarily want to aggressively take him on either. I would be disappointed if Ardkilly (what side of stable has he rolled out of today), Presented or Pena Dorada are good enough to take this. Bob Tucker could just be using a free space in the horsebox. His best performances have been on dead flat tracks to date- interesting how he goes here. I won’t say he can’t win but wonder whether the handicapper may have him for the time being. I am unsure as to the strength of Askamore Darsi’s chase form albeit he is still unexposed. His best chase form to date has been in the slop and McCain is 0/9,1 place with his handicap chasers returning here 60+ days off, but the horse has a good record fresh.
That leaves the old boy, Carrigdhoun, WON 10/1 who is also a stats qualifier in the TTP Members post. He has an ok record fresh, had a year out in 2014 (so could be considered a spring chicken at 10!), the trainer’s horses are going well enough and he has course form. He looks most interesting and it is a shame there are not 8 runners here for an EW wager. There is also plenty of pace on- most in here like to get on with it. Stamina is this old boy’s forte and if he is a1,and can keep tabs on them, he could be staying on late and if there are any chinks in the fav, could be the one to capitalise. I am reluctant to tip him but I have had a small bet on him at 7s (not quite Owen Na View size mind) – Maybe the forecast is the way to go, 1 to beat 4… but then that may just be overconfidence having predicted one yesterday!
So, maybe I am treating this as a ‘feeling my way in’ chase again. We shall see how it pans out.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
None today. Plenty already to have a look through and nothing standing out on geegeez stats reports I have looked at.
2/2 on Wednesday..+8 points…running total now 14/43, +34.5 points
3.50 Carl- Ballyarthur DNQ (no ticks against my sept/oct notes but QUALIFIES (UP) on NTD non-handicap micro angle previously touched on) 111/10
4.05 Uttox – Guiting Power UP (ticks- 1 run 90 days, plus 21-60 day rest pattern) 10/1
4.40 Uttox – Yanmare WON 5/1>11/4 (ticks extreme weight trend) (also QUALIFIER on another NTD micro tucked away,his unexposed chasers…16/49,25p +65 SP 2013-) 5/1
5.40 Uttox – Bring Back Charlie (ticks 1 run 90 days) 10/3 WON 3/1
2.40 Carl – Bako De La Saulaire DNQ (no ticks unless fancied ,4/1 or shorter would be a positive) 25/1
NEW Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio
2.10 Carl – Cuil Rogue (unexp hurdlers) 16/1 – UP
5.10 Uttox – Distant Rain (unexp hurdlers) 13/2 – 2nd
4.40 Uttox – Copeerfacejack (2nd run after break) 7/2 2nd 4/1