FREE DAILY POST: 12/10/16 (complete)

Some notes on the 5.05 Wetherby + Jumps Angles…

1K to 5k Challenge

If you missed my email earlier… you can join Nicky Doyle (BetAlchemist) on his 1k to 5k challenge where you can receive his free tips that he will be backing to grow his bank. If could be good fun and with any luck profitable. It is simply a free email list, that you can leave anytime. He will find decent priced winners and you can sign up HERE>>>

 

***

TIPS

none.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

  • 5.05 Wetherby… just some notes really…this looks an interesting little chase to me and having had a look through I am fairly confident that one of the top three in the market should be winning this…Monbeg River, Helium or Owen Na ViewWON 9/2  for what its worth I have had a little tickle on Owen Na View with a saver on Helium. The pace angle is what drew me in. Own Na View is a tricky sort but if he gets his own way up front is dangerous. He gets first time blinkers here which may help. They may spark him up and he may hate them of course so not one to go mad on but I thought 9/2 was ok. I expect Brennan to try and make all here- he had better as that is my ‘way in’! If he can control this from the front he has a great chance. That last race at Newton Abbot – when watching it live I thought they were going far too quick up top. Owen paid the price for trying to live with Next Sensation- he couldn’t do that. Next Sensation, even in his latter years, is just a better/quicker/more slick horse on the front end really. Now he either got very tired from trying to engage in a battle for such a distance and/or sulked. The trainer remains in decent form 3/11,6 places last 14 days. So, on a fairly quiet day for me I thought he looked of some mild interest. Helium, despite his ageing years, is fairly lightly raced in this sphere and has some decent chase form in the book. He should enjoy these conditions, is fit and the trainer is in form. He could give the selection most to do. Monbeg River- he has an ok record fresh but was thumped by Owen Na View at Perth in April – getting outpaced on that ground/class to my eye. If this were soft I may be more inclined to be with him. If he won I would not be totally surprised but I just think the other two have a bit more going for them- fitness/proven class/red hot trainer form. It also looked like the capper may have had him at the back end also, albeit there could be more to come this year. If it is clear he is keeping tabs with them on the way round I could be in trouble. A fascinating little contest and maybe these will finish 1-2-3 in some kind of order! Readying the egg as all three end up tailed off… 

 

That will be all for today.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Sept/Oct Trainers

Results update: Those ‘qualifying’ against one or more of the positive pointers are… 41 bets / 12 wins / +26.5 points

NTD

2.55 Weth: Ballybolley (ticks 1 run 90 days positive) WON Evens

Ewart

4.00 Weth: Lord Wishes (all handicappers worth second glance,tick) WON 7/1 

 

***

Post complete…

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Hi All

    3 x “Apprentice” Qualifiers for tomorrow

    2.00 Bath – Showmethewayavrilo 7.0
    Josey Gordon for M . Saunders 14 rides, 5 winners, 8 places 35.71% Win SR

    3.05 Bath – Dtripleseven 7.0
    Josey Gordon for R. Hughes 2 rides, 1 winner, 1 place 50.0% Win SR

    4.20 Nottingham – Orient Class 9.0
    Adam Mcnamara for P T Midgley 9 rides, 3 winners, 6 places 33% Win SR

    Cheers
    Steve

      1. Hi Tony

        Just back in. was up in Scotland early this morning….See Josey finished 2nd in the 2.00pm thats 4 – 2nds in a row for her selections hopefully she can put that right in the 3.05pm

        Cheers
        Steve

  2. In my quest for a big price winner I am going with Beauchamp Opal in the 2.10 NOT. I am on at 50/1. The horse is progressing and should appreciate the trip.

    I dont mind Panther Patrol in the 1.30 at Bath. It looks to be getting close to being on a winning mark?

    Another horse that may appreciate the trip is Deise Diamond in the 3.30 WET.

    Good luck

    1. Hi Martin, I have Beauchamp Opal just in on those rateable…5th I think, but she looks still to be needing flesh on her bones. She has a fair draw stall and her trainer is 36% [high] from his last 50 rateable runs…so who knows….best of luck.
      I agree with you on Panther Patrol….going to look at Deise Diamond now…

      Cheers.

  3. Hi All

    A more condensed approach at Wolves last evening with 6 selections in 6 races with 1 winner, 2 2nds, 2 5ths and a nowhere….For the first time on “Tapeta” the selections ran much more consistently and all where in contention at some stage and another night could have easily had 2 or 3 winners but certainly moving in the right direction….

    Back to this evening on “Polytrack” As from tonights meeting and all polytrack meetings I will record the results as I am happy with the test on these, I will use a £1000 bank and stake 2% of the bank on each qualifier to win only and see how this fares… the qualifiers that i will record for staking purposes are below but I’ve also included a footnote of other potential runners of interest using the stallion data for interest purposes only, selections for Kempton are as follows:

    5F – Top Draw 8,3,4,7,9
    5.20 No Selection

    5F – Top Draw 8,3,4,7,9
    5.55 Ask the Guru 13.5 (Ishiguru 6 runs, 2 wins, 3 places) Drawn 9

    7F – Top Draw 4,6,3,2,7
    6.25 Dutch Cat 40.0 (Dutch Art 10 runs, 2 wins, 4 places) Drawn 4

    7F – Top Draw 4,6,3,2,7
    6.55 Circulate 3.15 (Dutch Art 10 runs, 2 wins, 4 places) Drawn 6

    6F – Top Draw 5,7,1,6,2
    7.25 Tundra 2.64 (Bated Breath 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 1

    1m 4F – Top Draw 6,7,10,1,11
    7.55 Brodie 3.8 (Sea the Stars 3 runs, 2 wins, 2 places) Drawn 10

    7F – Top Draw 4,6,3,2,7
    8.25 Out of the Dark 17.0 (Kyllachy 6 rides, 2 wins, 4 places) Drawn 3

    1M – Top Draw 14,2,7,6,3
    8.55 Bazzat 4.9 (Roderic O Connor 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place) Drawn 6

    Footnote – interest purposes only left out due to draw and/or other selection in race
    5.20 -Lord Cooper (Sir Percy 2, 1, 1)
    6.55 – Tribute Act (Exceed & Excel 4, 2, 3)
    7.25 – Iron Lady (Exceed & Excel 5,2,3)
    7.25 – Kokanee Creek (Bated Breath 2, 1, 1)
    7.55 – Astrowizard (Zaminder 1, 1, 1)
    7.55 – Lovely Story (Cape Cross 5, 1, 3)
    7.55 – Dinsdale (Cape Cross 5,1,3)
    8.55 – Roccor (Rock of Gibraltor 1,1,1)

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. Hi Steve…great work…..I had to do a runner with the Mrs.
      G/sons wife gave birth to twins…so I never caught your mail coming in.
      I did fortunately do Across the Beach….Draw and ratings.
      I didn’t however do Ask the Guru or Chica De la Noche both top in my ratings and Chica good draw……I wanna swear….but not in front of babies…lol. I have circulate top in my ratings too…I notice this often coincides with your Kempton listings. I wonder why?.
      I’m going to follow on now…..That’s usually the kiss of death…lol.

      Cheers Steve..your sire certainly have Kempton nailed.

  4. Well done today Josh a full house of winners and a forecast excellent stuff……so busy didn’t have a bean on lol

    1. Cheers Steve – yep a good day on the stats, both here and TTP, and read the Owen race quite well! 7/1,9/2 and 11/2 winners across board, left the NTD one too short for me. Boosts confidence albeit still can’t tip for toffee – that will come. Hopefully a few above for you tonight.

        1. Good stuff steve and well done today josh. The day is getting even better with ask the guru coming in at nice price.Would never have backed that normally,but have been impressed with the stallion angle.

          1. Cheers mate- tide is slowly turning, just relieved there are some winners on the blog now! Wont get ahead of myself, tipping a few would be welcome. Yea I like this more focused approach that Steve is settling on- plenty of logic and with any luck a brilliant strategy moving forwards.

          2. Thanks guys….certainly a lovely way to start off the spreadsheet :-)….Josh you have a great feel for the jumps and its only a matter of time before the tips start rolling in too, Days like today are regular for you throughout the NH season and ive no doubt that this year will be no exception along with the new guide thats proving its worth already

            Cheers
            Steve

  5. Small Booomm!!

    Back to basics a great jockey booting a horse with first time headgear to the front and staying there – 5/1 on Betfair

    It’s a really good system – Many more to come I hope

    Keep em comin Josh

    Your back !!!

    1. Ha, yea the stars aligned for that one. What a bloody good jock he is. Never in much doubt at two points..1. when clear blinkers were helping, was going speed Brennan wanted- 2. – watching him look behind a few times and kick turning for home was a joy. Doesn’t get better for me, which is rather sad! Glad you had a nibble. Good to read one right… that finding front runners over fences, who have the form etc to possibly stay there, could become focus of that stats/angles section.

  6. Well done Josh.
    You were obviously worried about selections not performing but that is part of the game and the basic mind set you have will keep you sane so onward and upward. I for one love the feel of the community here and will definitely be sticking around.

  7. Top shout Steve, I had Bazzat 2nd n my ratings and 3rd in the draw stats, but was 2nd in the draw in top 3. so I backed it…nice one.
    Kempton 8.55.
    Ratings were….Garter top at 100. but bad draw.
    Bazzat……..97..good draw 13%
    Capital Gearing 91..good draw…14% but Trainer 0% wins over 50 runs.

    Top 3 draw all runners. Deftera lad 15%….2nd at 50/1
    Capital Gearing 14%..0
    Bazzat 13% Won…

    vermuellen was top rated as well…won.

    I can’t pinpoint why ratings run truer at some track than others…. any theories.????

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.