TTP Jumps Notes: 12/10/16 (complete)

RESULTS

A quick re-cap…remember these results are for all bets if backed systematically. With any luck backers will have been on most of the winners and avoided plenty of the losers. But, in any case, the top level stats (esp for Micro Angles) are looking promising. So far the stats are finding winners which is a relief! 🙂 If we can keep avoiding the odd loser also, hopefully it continues to be positive moving forwards…

Week 2 Totals

General Race Types: 2/20,4 p = -8.5

Micro Angles: 4/17,4p = +10

Total including multiple qualifiers: 6/37, 8p = +1.5

Total 1x  1 point only : 5/33,7p = -2.5

Running Total End Week 2

General Race Types:8/50,13p =  +7.25 points

Micro Angles: 6/30,9 p = +23 points

Total including multiple qualifiers: 14/80,22p = +30.25

Total 1x  1 point only : 11/72,18p =  +7.25

UPDATED RESULTS/WEEK 2…. HERE>>>

***

WETHERBY

4.00 –

Off The Ground (hncp chase) 10/1 UP 14/1*

*ran better than I thought he would. A bit keen, strange head carriage but he plugged on here and looked threatening at one stage. Maybe they will find a weak race for him as this showed, for first time in a while, that still some ability there. 

NOTE: Longsdon 5/25,13 places last 14 days- fair to say he is ‘in form’. Jockey is 0/7,0 places in career to date. Inexperienced but not many of them have had a chance. Form reading can be subjective but even my disastrous liking for an ageing chaser with more letters than numbers against their name may not tempt me in with him! His last four runs raise some questions now about what ability/desire remains to my eyes. He looks to have plenty to prove at the moment you would think. He has been weakening very quickly in recent runs. If this young lad on just to gain some experience? No market has formed as yet. This is the kind of horse that can make you look silly but as i write I think I would be happy for him to beat me. I will ponder some more.

4.35

Nautical Nitwit  (micro- trainer/jockey combo) 11/2 WON 7/2 SP

NOTE: trainer is 0/20,3 places last 30 days, 0/9,0 places last 14 days. However, I am not sure that tells the full story. Only two of those 20 have been 9/1 or shorter with many priced 12s,20s,33s etc. So, maybe not many have had an actual chance on paper. I wouldn’t be confident saying his string are out of form or that being the sole reason I wouldn’t get involved. Not much more to say. Horse has been running ok and is still fairly young/unexposed enough- you couldn’t say a win in a C3 handicap hurdle is beyond him albeit he may look like a ‘summer C4 horse’.

Frederic- who won for the stats LTO at Market Rasen at 12s lines up here. Given the nature of that victory I suspect he may be a short price here. He clouted a few and still won as he pleased. Still, Nautical may be an EW price with any luck as at this stage I think that is how I would play him, provided all 8 stand. We shall see. He is fit, and has been running ok. A repeat of recent runs may put him in the mix.

5.40

Lightening Rod (all handicaps/hncp hurdles) 12/1 (missed this, updated at 6.20 pm) UP 10/1

Note: trainer ‘in form’ 6/29, 9 places last 14 days. M Easterby 5/43,10 all jumps handicappers returning 60+ days off. Horse 4/9 at the track and 11lb below last winning mark. Has been chasing for a time and reverts to hurdles.

***

My View:

I don’t think I can personally have Off The Ground given his recent form/profile and the jockey booking. It looks a tough task to my eyes.

The 4.35 looks a tight little contest if the market is to be believed. Frederic may make 3s look decent but he has done his winning for me personally and I will leave him at that price, albeit he was rather impressive the last day. I will have a small EW stab on the stats pick- I can’t say he can’t win this and 11/2 gives just enough leeway for some EW interest. Hopefully he can run a good race. Were he to fade out given his recent consistency maybe there is more to the poor trainer form than I gave credit to.

5.40 – not sure what to make of this old boy. Plenty of less exposed ones in here and the fav won with any amount in hand the last day. Would appear to be up against it but could run an ok race. Given some of his hurdles form last year, and his mark, you wouldn’t be shocked if he ran some sort of race.

Good luck if you back either and well done to those of you in the poll who said you would leave all those at Huntingdon. I should have followed your advice!

Josh