Meetings from Chepstow and Hexham this Saturday as the winter jumping actions notches up another gear…
There is also a Members Only Chepstow post HERE>>> (trends/stats)
NOTE: The brackets following the horses name refers to the section of the TTP Jumps guide that the stats are from
El Terremoto (micro- horse runs this season) (9/2) UP
NOTE: NTD continues in fine form- 6/17,11 places last 14 days. 6/22,10 places here in the last year all runners, 9/45,13p those making handicap debut under rules- a solid 20% albeit you have to pick the right ones to come out in front systematically. But, shows he has winners with this type. The horse- well he is in the could be anything category – bar all the stats there isn’t much else to go in really unless you know your French form! Apparently the one that beat him the last day was a good yardstick. Market may well guide.
Braavos (micro- age) (9/1) UP
NOTE: Hobbs’ going ok, 1/8,3 places last 14 days. He is 6/28,10 places in C1 hurdles with those returning after 60+ days off. I think he had the second in this race in both 2013 and 2014
Ballyoptic (micro- horse runs this season) (7/1) WON 7s>9/2 (some 8s around)
NOTE: The same NTD stats above apply to this one also, inc handicap debut.
Both of those above are in the top 3 of Geegeez speed ratings.
Indian Stream (all hncps) (10/1) UP
NOTE: trainer in form- 6/21, 8 places last 14 days. The horse has been a winning machine to date and is a perfect 3/3 after breaks of 60+ days.
Buachaill Alainn (all hncps / micro trainer jock combo) (25/1) UP
NOTE: Bowen’s going ok, without being in form against the geegeez metrics, 2/13 last 14 days. To date the horse is 0/7, 2 places after breaks of 60+ days, inc 0/3,0 places over fences. Bowen 0/12, 1 place with handicap chasers returning in C2 after 60+ days, only 2/34 over 3m with such types after a break.
Little Jon (micro – runs this season) (20/1) UP
NOTE: NTD- all the trainer form stats apply.
Pure Poteen (all hncps) (10/1) PU
NOTE: Mulholland ‘in form’ as above with Indian Stream. Horse won this race last year off 5lb lower (not taking account of jockey claim though I don’t think) which is interesting enough- a run over hurdles LTO as well, where he went ok. Maybe a plan- good jockey booked to my eye. Has worn a tongue tie for an age but not on last start and not today- don’t know what you read into that really- maybe they don’t think he needs it any more.
Kapricorne (micro, horse runs 90 days 0 ) (8/1) UP
NOTE: trainer 0/10, 2 places last 14 days, 1/21 last 30 days. Horse 1/4 after breaks 60+ days. He is now 0/10,2 places over fences. is very well handicapped on hurdle form and bits and pieces of chase form. Most of best form has been on soft, 0/7,1p career on good- but not conclusive. Jockey 0/8,1 p over fences in career to date. Horse 0/13, 0 places in C4 to date.
Civil Unrest (all hncps/hncp Case/ micro trainer jock combo) (11/2) WON 7/1
NOTE: Ewart 1/5, 3 places last 30 days. Could be the pace angle reverting back to fences, suspect may try and make all.
Shine A Diamond (8/1) (micro, class) UP
NOTE: trainer 1/22 , 5 places last 30 days. Horse won race in 2014 and was 2nd in it last year.
Mr Monochrome (NHF trainers) (10/11) 3rd 4/7
NOTE: trainer 0/7, 4 places last 14 days. Seems well fancied in market.
BONUS STATS IRELAND
Steamboat Quay (Elliot 20-20.5f here all handicaps, 4/7,5 places) 2nd 4/1
Bellas Rock (as above) UP
Well this looks a tricky day indeed. Maybe I should start with those I am comfortable leaving…Buachaill Alainn is one..he is a tricky bugger but the days rest puts me off really and I would be surprised if he is good enough in this field. Second in race last year but this is deeper I think. If fit and on a going day may make me look silly but I can’t have him here. Little Jon – he has stamina to prove which he may do- his jumping in a field this size is of more concern as is his form on undulating tracks. NTD on fire though so nothing a total shock but i can’t back him on what he has done to date- he can really clout a fence.If he ever tidies up his jumping he could have a decent race in him. For now he looks a small field/flat track chaser.
Happy to leave Kapricorne on those class stats, his jumping form to date, inexperienced jockey, and the going. Not impossible for him though, but enough negs there personally for me. Jefferson’s in the bumper at Hexham is too short for me personally. Trainer could be about to hit some form soon.
The rest I am up in the air with. In order of my own preference I think…
Civil Unrest… he is 10 now but last ran in a C5 handicap chase 6 starts ago and won well over CD off this mark. He should race prominently and could jump them silly. He is 2/4,3 places in C5 handicap chases and is fit/in form. Open to attack from younger legs. I will be backing him, and leaving the rest in that race. Russell’s looks ok but can be held up and that run LTO was his first since his run in this race last year. Suggests a problem. Well handicapped though but happy to stick with the old boy here. The Dickin horse caught the eye LTO also, travelled well for a long way before fading. Could come on for run and will be up there. But, he doesn’t like winning very often. The fav, Halcyon Days…well Menzies is 0/42,6 places those after 60+ days last two years, that would be enough to put me off at 4s.
The other two Twister horses at Chepstow look fascinating and I may have an interest in both. I can’t work out my mind on the Hobbs hurdler. Claimer may be on for a reason, suggests they may think he is handicapped to hilt and he does need to improve, which entitled to do as he matures. Indian Stream- not much to say to put you off her given profile – slight niggle in my mind as to her new mark and strength of summer for, albeit some has worked out well indeed- the last 10 renewals of that race, the Top 3 in the weights now 0/32,4 places- found that tad off putting also. But, big run no shock.
So, hopefully some of these go well and none of those I am leaving bolt up! I very nearly left a 16/1 winner unbacked at Exeter, so do as you please with that info above. Good luck.