I plan to try and find some stats/trends for the big Handicap Hurdle (Silver Trophy) and the 3m Handicap Chase.
I will also try and see if there are any ‘trainer pointers’. We will have out TTP: Jumps Notes for the course also. I will not be able to narrow trainer stats down to this two day meeting, but I plan to see which trainers have done well at Chepstow in October.
All of that to follow in the next 2-3 hours (now 10.41 am as I write)
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TRENDS/STATS
Well, when you start looking for some trends/stats you hope to find a few angles that may knock a few horses out and given you a shortlist.
In truth I don’t think there is much to go on with the handicap hurdle but what I have found is below…
Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle
19 renewals
227 horses, 59 placed
TRENDS
Previous Place
- 9/19 WON LTO
- 9/50, 19 places…+49 SP
Season Runs
- 4+ : 0/22, 4 places
- 13/19 yet to run this season
Position In Market
- 12/19 Top 4 in odds market come off. (9/19 Top 2)
Odds
- 18/19 20/1 or shorter
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OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –
- Clear top weight: 0/15, 2 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H-Run (NH Race Type)
- 12/19 had 1-5 hurdle runs
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Distance
- 11/19 ran over 2m1f or shorter LTO
- 11/71, 22 places…15%…+54 SP
- (included 4 of last 5 winners)
- 11/71, 22 places…15%…+54 SP
(LR) Festival
- Cheltenham: 3/20, 5 places
- Aintree National: 2/21, 7 places
(LR) Track
- Cheltenham: 4/43, 13 places
- Chepstow: 3/21, 5 places
- Ayr: 2/12, 4 places
- Aintree: 2/22, 7 places
- 1 win: Bangor/Thurles/Donny/Hayd/Kelso/NewtonA/Leop/Perth
Trainers (of interest)
- P Hobbs: 2/23, 9 places
- Jonjo O’Neill: 2/7, 2 places
- NTD: 2/12, 4 places
- 1 win: D Skelton/ D Pipe/E Williams/V Dartnall/H Daly/P Nicholls
- V Williams: 0/8, 0 places
- A King: 011, 2 p
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3m Handicap Chase (now 2m7.5f)
(Sat, 5pm)
I will look at the last 10 renewals this time
127 horses competed, 31 wins|places
TRENDS
Previous Place
- 8/10 top 6 LTO
- 2/10: PU LTO
- 7th or worse (completed): 0/29, 6 places
Horse Age
- 9/10 Aged 6-8
- 9/82, 23 places
- 9yo: 1/24, 5 p
- 10/11: 0/19, 3 p
Horse Weight (exc jockey claim)
- 10-00: 3/11, 4 places
- 11-12: 0/12, 2 places
- 11-8+ : 0/20, 2 places
Horse Official Rating
- OR 137+ : 0/26, 4 places
Season Runs
- 0… 3/56, 11 places
- 1+ : 7/71, 20 places
Odds
- 10/10 priced 20/1 or shorter
- 22/1+ : 0/27, 1 place
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OTHER STATS
Miscellaneous 1
Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –
- Top 3 in weights, inc joints: 0/32, 4 places
‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’
H – Run (career)
- 0-12 runs: 0/17, 4 places
H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)
- 0-5 handicap runs: 0/20, 4 places
H-Run (NH Race Type)
- 10/10 had 6+ chase runs
- 2-5: 0/17, 3 places
H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type)
- 0-1 hncp chase runs: 0/14, 2 places
The ‘Winning’ Characteristics
H-Win (career)
- 8/10 had 4-6 career wins
- 1-3: 2/29, 9 places
- 7+ : 0/29, 4 places
H-Win (Class)
- 8/10 yet to win in the class
- 1: 2/30, 9 places
- 2+ : 0/23, 5 places
H-Win (Season).
- 0: 7/96, 23 places
- 1: 0/19, 3 places
- 2+ : 3/12, 5 places… +31 SP
Miscellaneous 2
Highest Class Win
- Had won above C2 (Listed+) : 0/26, 5 places
Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics
(LR) Hcap/Non
- Non handicap: 0/17, 3 places
(LR) No. of Runners
- 10/10 ran in race with 7-16 runners LTO
- 2-6: 0/19, 2 places
- 17+ : 0/30, 8 places
(LR) Track
- Newton A: 2/12, 4 places
- Uttox: 2/12, 3 places
- Stratford: 2/12, 3 places
- 1 win: Market R/Warwick/Aintree/Chepstow
- Chelt: 0/11, 3 places
Trainers (of interest)
- Miss E Lavelle: 2/7, 3 places
- 1 win, many: Longsdon/Honeyball/NTD/R Buckler/P Bowen/Jonjo O ‘Neill/P Hobbs
- P Nicholls: 0/13, 2 places
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TRAINER POINTERS
Below I have just had a very brief look a handful of trainers who have done well at Chepstow in the month of October, in the last three years. These are only a guide but you may find them of some use…
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That is all for this post.
Josh
