Chepstow: trends/stats/trainer pointers (COMPLETE)

I plan to try and find some stats/trends for the big Handicap Hurdle (Silver Trophy) and the 3m Handicap Chase.

I will also try and see if there are any ‘trainer pointers’. We will have out TTP: Jumps Notes for the course also. I will not be able to narrow trainer stats down to this two day meeting, but I plan to see which trainers have done well at Chepstow in October.

All of that to follow in the next 2-3 hours (now 10.41 am as I write)

 

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TRENDS/STATS

Well, when you start looking for some trends/stats you hope to find a few angles that may knock a few horses out and given you a shortlist.

In truth I don’t think there is much to go on with the handicap hurdle but what I have found is below…

 

Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle

19 renewals

227 horses, 59 placed

 

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 9/19 WON LTO
    • 9/50, 19 places…+49 SP

Season Runs

  • 4+ : 0/22, 4 places
    • 13/19 yet to run this season

Position In Market

  • 12/19 Top 4 in odds market come off. (9/19 Top 2)

Odds

  • 18/19 20/1 or shorter

 

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Clear top weight: 0/15, 2 places

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 12/19 had 1-5 hurdle runs

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Distance

  • 11/19 ran over 2m1f or shorter LTO
    • 11/71, 22 places…15%…+54 SP
      • (included 4 of last 5 winners)

 

(LR) Festival

  • Cheltenham: 3/20, 5 places
  • Aintree National: 2/21, 7 places

 

(LR) Track

  • Cheltenham: 4/43, 13 places
  • Chepstow: 3/21, 5 places
  • Ayr: 2/12, 4 places
  • Aintree: 2/22, 7 places
  • 1 win: Bangor/Thurles/Donny/Hayd/Kelso/NewtonA/Leop/Perth

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • P Hobbs: 2/23, 9 places
  • Jonjo O’Neill: 2/7, 2 places
  • NTD: 2/12, 4 places
  • 1 win: D Skelton/ D Pipe/E Williams/V Dartnall/H Daly/P Nicholls
  • V Williams: 0/8, 0 places
  • A King: 011, 2 p

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3m Handicap Chase (now 2m7.5f)

(Sat, 5pm)

I will look at the last 10 renewals this time

127 horses competed, 31 wins|places

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 8/10 top 6 LTO
    • 2/10: PU LTO
    • 7th or worse (completed): 0/29, 6 places

 

Horse Age

  • 9/10 Aged 6-8
    • 9/82, 23 places
    • 9yo: 1/24, 5 p
    • 10/11: 0/19, 3 p

 

Horse Weight (exc jockey claim)

  • 10-00: 3/11, 4 places
  • 11-12: 0/12, 2 places
  • 11-8+ : 0/20, 2 places

 

Horse Official Rating

  • OR 137+ : 0/26, 4 places

 

Season Runs

  • 0… 3/56, 11 places
  • 1+ : 7/71, 20 places

 

Odds

  • 10/10 priced 20/1 or shorter
    • 22/1+ : 0/27, 1 place

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Top 3 in weights, inc joints: 0/32, 4 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

  • 0-12 runs: 0/17, 4 places

 

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 0-5 handicap runs: 0/20, 4 places

 

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 10/10 had 6+ chase runs
    • 2-5: 0/17, 3 places

 

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 0-1 hncp chase runs: 0/14, 2 places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (career)

  • 8/10 had 4-6 career wins
    • 1-3: 2/29, 9 places
    • 7+ : 0/29, 4 places

H-Win (Class)

  • 8/10 yet to win in the class
    • 1: 2/30, 9 places
    • 2+ : 0/23, 5 places

H-Win (Season).

  • 0: 7/96, 23 places
  • 1: 0/19, 3 places
  • 2+ : 3/12, 5 places… +31 SP

 

Miscellaneous 2

Highest Class Win

  • Had won above C2 (Listed+) : 0/26, 5 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

 

(LR) Hcap/Non

  • Non handicap: 0/17, 3 places

 

(LR) No. of Runners

  • 10/10 ran in race with 7-16 runners LTO
    • 2-6: 0/19, 2 places
    • 17+ : 0/30, 8 places

 (LR) Track

  • Newton A: 2/12, 4 places
  • Uttox: 2/12, 3 places
  • Stratford: 2/12, 3 places
  • 1 win: Market R/Warwick/Aintree/Chepstow
  • Chelt: 0/11, 3 places

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • Miss E Lavelle: 2/7, 3 places
  • 1 win, many: Longsdon/Honeyball/NTD/R Buckler/P Bowen/Jonjo O ‘Neill/P Hobbs
  • P Nicholls: 0/13, 2 places

 

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TRAINER POINTERS

Below I have just had a very brief look a handful of trainers who have done well at Chepstow in the month of October, in the last three years. These are only a guide but you may find them of some use…

 

chept-trainer-table

 

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That is all for this post.

Josh

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