FREE: Cesarewitch Stats/Trends/Pointers

Stats/trends/pointers for the big Flat handicap of the weekend…

Some stats/trends/pointers for the Cesarewitch Handicap. Hopefully they may help you narrow down the field to a working shortlist. Use them how you please…

 

Cesarewitch 2016

19 renewals

623 runners, 76 placed horses

 

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 17/19 Top 7 LTO
    • 2/165, 14 places 8th or worse

Days Since Run

  • 1-10 days: 0/35, 4 places

Season Runs

  • 18/19 had 0-7 runs this season
    • 8+ : 1/124, 7 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

  • 19/19 had won over at least 12.5 f (1m4.5f) 
    • 0/51, 6 places had not

 

Odds

  • Winners up to 66/1… 50-66/1… 4/141,12 places

 

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 3/288, 27 places
  • IRE: 10/232, 31 places
  • USA: 2/48, 5 places
  • FR: 2/32, 7 places
  • GER: 2/19, 6 places

Stalls/Draw

Stall

  • 16/19 drawn 19 or lower..
    • 20+ : 3/275, 20 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

  • 0-7: 0/49,6 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 0-4 handicap runs: 0/80, 7 places

 

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 13/19 had placed on at least one of last two starts

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career).

  • 19/19 had 2 + career wins
    • 0-1: 0/70, 5 places

 

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 16/19 had between 3-6 wins in handicaps
    • 0 Handicap wins: 0/83, 10 places
    • 1-2: 3/226, 19 places
    • 7+ : 0/37, 4 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Distance Move

  • Dropping in distance: 0/55, 4 places
  • UP 6f or more: 0/50, 4 places

 

Highest Class Win

  • Previous Group/grade 1 winners: 3/8, 6 places… +61 SP
  • 15/19 highest class win was C2 or 3
    • Class 4/5/6: 1/182, 11 places
    • Group 2/3 + listed: 0/49, 6 places

 

H-Places (Hncp/Non)

  • 19/19 had 3+ places (inc wins) in handicaps
    • 0-2 places in handicaps (inc wins) : 0/120, 11 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) DISTANCE

  • 7f-1m4f: 0/54, 5 places
    • 16-16.5f: 12/205, 33 places…+100 SP
    • 2m4f+ : 0/47, 3 places

 

 (LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • Class 5/6: 0/33, 2 places

 

 (LR) Odds

  • 18/19 were 16/1 or shorter LTO
    • 18/1+ : 1/112, 6 places

 

(LR) Track

  • Ascot: 3/95, 12 places
  • Chester: 3/23, 6 places
  • Newmarket (Rowl) : 3/51, 6 places
  • Donny: 2/45, 7 places
  • Newc: 2/11, 3 places
  • 1 win: York/Muss/Aintree/Ayr/Hayd/Listowel
  • Newbury: 0/19, 0 places
  • Goodwood: 0/42, 3 places
  • Ponty: 0/18, 1 place
  • Sand: 0/13, 0 places
  • Newmarket July: 0/18, 4 places
  • Yarmouth: 0/15, 1 place

 

Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics

1st Run Class

  • Class 6: 0/40 , 4 places

 

***

Trainer Yard Location

  • Central England: 0/95, 5 places
  • South East/South West: 15/376..46 places
  • Yorkshire: 3/93, 11 places
  • Leinster: 1/34, 11 places

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • M Johnston: 3/33, 6 places
  • 2 wins: Meehan/N Henderson/P Hobbs
  • 1 win: Simcock/Tony Martin/J Osborne/B Millman/A King
  • D Pipe: 0/13, 2 p
  • Ian Williams: 0/10, 0 places
  • R Fahey: 0/11, 1 p
  • R Beckett: 0/8, 0 p
  • Gary Moore: 0/13, 0 p
  • A Balding: 0/10, 1 p
  • B Ellison: 0/14, 0 p
  • Sir Mark Prescott: 0/23, 1 p
  • H Morrison: 0/14, 0 p

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

9 Responses

    1. Yep always interesting, suppose given the distance an early position close to rail is important. Or not being trapped too wide/having to drop in too far back. Albeit a different distance, the stats for Cambridgeshire were similar but all the action happened opposite side as suggested by draw stats. But, they don’t split in two here do they, given distance?

  1. I am already on Magic Circle at a big price ante post a while back. Nakeeta has form of 1311 in September and October over 10F + I think and so may be worthy a go?

  2. Josh,

    Quick question, I see you have looked at the stats dating back to 97. Is there a particular reason you look back that far? Given that racing has changed so much over that period of time. Would it not be more relevant to look at the last 10yrs?

    Thanks
    Joe

    1. Hi Joe,

      There are many ways you can slice and dice such things… i have usually done 19 years and had some success – I tried the last 8 years from last couple of weekends, my thinking in line with yours, and that wasn’t great. Always a question of where you draw the line- a lot of the races characteristics remain the same- the thing that changes in the training of race horses and even in the last 5 years that may have changed beyond recognition to even 5 years before that say.

      The question of ‘relevance’ is interesting – it may be best to do both 19 years and 8 years – and when i start getting stuck into jumps maybe I will do that. Given this is a free post and I don’t plan on tipping in the race, I will leave it as is for now- running out of time today.

  3. Might be interesting,if you have the time , to just look at the races run on Good to Firm / Firm over the last 19 years to see if these stats stay true or skew in anyway

    1. Only 1 renewal in last 19 years has been run officially on Good to Firm according to HRB- the rest all on good and good to soft. Maybe such a point will make many of these stats irrelevant. We shall see depending if/what kind of shortlist they throw up.
      Josh

  4. Ended up sticking a few quid each way on the cashel man & star rider,both have some form at the course,hopefully will get a run for my money.

  5. Hi I’m come from my home in turkey to come to the cessarwitch race .
    Any help from any one would be a great help .

    Thanks Terry

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