MEMBERS: Note that only Newton Abbot race on Friday and as such there will no notes. They are a ‘summer jumping’ track and only have two meetings left this year, before resuming again next summer. A previous free TTP report for the summer jumps can be found HERE>>>
Weekend Plans… Most of my attention will be on Chepstow I suspect. There is a decent 3m+ handicap chase with some trends/stats available to guide. There are also trends for the 2m handicap hurdle which I may share- without tipping in it as such. I also believe there is some big race on the flat or something. Given the number of massive priced winners of the Cesarewitch I will have a look at some stats. I doubt I will tip in it but any profile may lead the way, or not. I will probably share all such trends/stats for free this weekend.
JUMPS MICRO SYSTEMS PORTFOLIO:
Completed. 8 Chase Micros.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
A few notes/starting points to use how you please… laying has generally been a good approach 🙂
- 3.25 York – Cape Cova – 7/1| 8/1 (UP – 4th) … Johnny G has some rather decent stats that are rife for further digging at some point but for now, in the last two years he is …69/220,115 places with LTO winners, 31% +64 SP. Those returning after a break of 60+ days… 70/223,119 places…31% +37 SP. Now I suspect there may be the odd big winner in there but as a set of data it isn’t too bad and I will add some ‘digging time’ to the to do list. This one ticks both those boxes here. Gosden is on fire at the moment also- 11/34,20 places in the last 14 days, 3/15,6 places at York in the last year. He is 4/16,8 places with the jockey in class 2 flat handicaps in last 5 years, 2/5,3 places when teaming up over this distance. The horse steps up in trip and I suppose the expectation is that he improves even further for it. It is a 3yo only handicap so I suppose anything could happen. Plenty of these are doing a few things differently and others will improve also. There is a bit of pace on and hopefully he can just sit and track it. I won’t be going mad but given the above probably can’t resist a 1/2 point at those odds. Maybe the market will guide after the break.
- 3.00 Newton Abbot – just some notes/thoughts… I have had a flick through the card and this one looks most interesting race for me personally (the 3m+ handicap chase will be a good watch but a tight little affair as market indicates)…I think I have to agree with Gerry as below and think Young Dillon 2nd 8/1>6/1 looks a decent price for a small EW wager…if the headgear works again. He is fit, in form, progressive and he is a proven stayer. There should also be more to come. The trainer remains in great form, 3/7, 3 places last 7 days. He is 4/10,5 places in handicap hurdles at the track and 2/7,5 places in class 2 handicap hurdles over this distance. He knows how to train a staying handicapper as we know. 8s feels a bit too big to me. He is also top on the geegeez speed figs which may boost confidence. The Romford Pele WON 7/1 is interesting- I wonder if this is a pipe opener for a chase at Cheltenham coming up – he ran in the Murphy Group handicap 3m3f last Nov for example. He has a big weight and you would think that something may have more in hand than him here. He is on a big mark but based on that last hurdle run, given this distance will suit more, I couldn’t say he wont go close though. Just depends whether he is here to win naybe…2/6,4 places after breaks of 60+ days. He will be hoping to improve on the trainers record of just 3/40 in C2 handicap hurdles though! The Nicholls horse could be decent but does have stamina to prove and he wears the hood because he is a keen sort- he won;t want to be that here, fresh after a break otherwise he won’t be getting home. Short enough but could have any amount up his sleeve. GoodBye Dancer will need to improve for the distance- I don’t think a repeat of recent form will be good enough here- big Nige ‘only’ 8/78,19p in C2 handicap hurdles last 5 years. So, I think a little EW bet on Young Dillon for me and we shall see how that goes. Another Lay maybe!
(Don’t forget you can read these notes in the Free Reports/Systems section HERE>>> When I say ‘ticks positive, or doesn’t etc’ these are what I am referring to…)
Well a perfect 3/3 from these on Thursday 9/2, 9/2,
3/1 5/2… and these notes seems to be doing the job so far. Hopefully some of you backed one or more..
3.00 NA – Goodbye Dancer UP (ticks box of 1 run last 90 days)
5.15 NA – ScotchTown(no positive ticks against my notes. 0/2, 1 place in NHF races in recent years)
4.40 NA – Mrs Robbin UP 7/2 (ticks positives, its October,fitness positive also)
Varian Listed Fillies/Group (25/1<)
2.05 New – Pichola Dance UP
4.50 New- Dawn of Hope UP
3.25 York – Against The Odds (16/1< guide)
5.00 York – Zaeem (16/1< guide)
(poll will close at around 12pm)