TTP Jumps Notes: 06/10/16 (COMPLETE)

Qualifiers below. Some Notes also …

EXETER 

2.55

Mighty Missile (all handicaps) 8/1 (UP)

Notes: trainer 0/4, 3 places last 14 days, 3/9,4 places in C4 hncp hurdles here 5 years

Ladies Dancing (handicap hurdles) 33/1 (UP)

Notes: Trainers SR for this angle possibly the lowest in whole guide at 14%, 5/35,17 places. The winners have paid over time, and made up for the many losers. The place stats are decent also, nearly 50% winning or placing. Horse is back to last winning mark, before counting 3lb claim. Blinkers back on. Jockey is 5/18,9 places here on handicap hurdlers.

3.30

Tom Neary (all handicaps + hncp chases) 14/1 (UP)

Jumped and travelled well on the whole and had me worried for a time! As it turns out he faded up the home straight suggesting, along with the drift, that he needed the run. One for the notebook at a very moderate level possibly. They will be pleased he got round. Was 3rd approaching third last before tiring.

Note: trainer 0/22, 1 place with chasers returning after 60+ days last 5 years.

Pawn Star (hncp chases) 9/4 WON 5/2

Much better jumping around RH here it seems. The only young/progressive/fit one in the race does the business. Hopefully some of you backed him, even if if I left him.

5.15

Billy My Boy (hncp h) 9/2 –  3rd 3/1 (not sure if he took to blinkers there)

Note: Same as for Ladies Dancing, same jockey. Trainer 2/12,5 places C5 handicap hurdles here, +4 SP.

Culum Counsellor (hncp h) 12/1 2nd (photo) 16/1 SP*

*that run maybe proving that form reading etc in C5 handicap hurdles can be problematic! 

Note: Same as above, bar jockey. First ride for trainer I think.

Starlit Night (hncp h) 66/1 UP

Note: As above, all three trained by C Down. Again think jockeys first ride for trainer.

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HEREFORD

these are very much just a guide given there has been no racing here for three years or so. I suspect the racing community will want to show support for the track and that could mean trainers visiting here more than they usually would, at least initially. Anyway, those who had done well in 2010/11/12.

I won’t count these in the recorded ‘systematic’ results this season.

3.40 –

Bobble Emerald (all hncps – hncp h) 10/1

Note: running at Ludlow so may not turn up. Not much else to add. (this entry clearly an indication, hacked up at Ludlow, 10s.

4.50 –

Boss In Boots (hncp c) 5/1

Note: Vaughan ‘in form’ 7/27, 8 places last 14 days. ‘Only’ 3/54,5 places with stable newcomers last two years. Blinkers off, first time hood on.

Lake Chapala (hncp c) 13/2

Note: Trained by Vaughan also.

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My Views:

I will just touch on Exeter here… I think Billy My Boy 9/2 is looking like the only one I want to back. He is fit and in form. He has track form and is dropping into a C5 here, having been running in C4s. He is also a qualifier on my new Handicap Hurdle portfolio- the trainer doing well with top weights. This indicates he knows when to drop them in class, and the out class them say, with a big weight. His last win was in a C5 handicap hurdle. He is also a prominent racer and has form on good. I would like to think I will get a run for my money…

I am not sure I can say that about many of the others. Pawn Star has a chance but 9/4 isn’t a price I like to touch that often and I wasn’t too convinced with his jumping LTO. This is a different test to NA and this type of undulating track is an unknown. Young and progressive. Tom Neary has run appallingly on his last four runs, falling on two of those. He has form, jumping, stamina and fitness to prove. Even for me that seems too much 🙂 Too many questions for me, even at 14s. BUT this is his first run at the distance. Those 60+ day stats don’t fill you with enthusiasm either. The other two Down horses in the 5.15 have some form questions to answer- Culm Counsellor 0/14, 0 place in carrer to date.

So, looks like just the one for me from official ‘qualifiers’

Good luck with any bets.

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