FREE DAILY POST: 05/10/16 (complete +Tip)

Post Complete…6/1 Tip in 3.10 plus other notes..

TIPS

 

3.10 Ludlow

How About It – 2 points win – UP 7/2, -2 points

*No excuses there from what I can see…well backed it was a tame effort in the end and clearly combination of best fresh/RH/improved trainer form didn’t have the desired effect. Poor. Would appear the Ps are more indicative of his actual well being. Will keep an eye on him but had an awkward head carriage there I hadn’t seen before. Won’t use ground as excuse as won on good and trainer has run him on it. They went far harder up front that I thought they would – front two racing from some way out and pace collapsed- have set it up for the patiently ridden one who just managed to keep in touch and stayed on well. 

13/2 8.03 am..(betfred/SkyBet/WilliamH)

Maybe I should feel my way in with a gentle 1 point here but the more I look at this race I really think he could put this lot to the sword and win with something up his sleeve. Given his profile I think market support will be important and I will be looking through my fingers if he is weak.

Why Him?

He is young, unexposed and could be anything. Having watched a few videos I also think when he jumps at his best, he is the best jumper in here from what evidence there is. Around this time last year he won a beginners chase at Exeter over 24f. He did that really well, jumped well under pressure up the straight and after some initial encouragement put them to the sword. It was only a beginners chase but the Nicholls horse would go on to win races at the back end of the season, as would Pipes this year- albeit only at C4 level. He then went to Aintree and didn’t do much. I am minded to think he may prefer going RH on what we have seen to date.

It is that Ludlow run on his next start which looks interesting. Why they dropped him back to 2m4f I don’t know, but he ran really well. He got outpaced a tad as they were entering the straight but again his jumping took him into it, he responded, and stayed through to the line. The front three were miles clear there. The George horse would go onto to run 3rd next time at The Festival in the novice chase, and Tizzard’s horse got himself a win also in an ok chase. Solid form.

We know he goes well fresh and he likes this place. I have no idea what went wrong after that. At Kempton he got into no rhythm early and I reckon the pace may have taken him out of his comfort zone…if you go with the view that he is a stayer in the making, 2m4f around Kempton may not have been ideal. They didn’t hang around there. His next two runs were LH and you can forgive any horse a run in Heavy at Ffos Las. He clearly wasn’t ready for the Cheltenham race. It must also be remembered that Curtis had illness problems for large  chunks of last season and who knows if and when those affected this one.

Anyway, she is in form now- 2/6,3 places last 30 days. She is also 6/22,9 places with handicap chasers returning after 60+ days in c3 contests. If they want him fit enough to win this, based on that record and how he won last season after a break, he will be.

PACE…Azure Fly likes to get on with it and a few, including this one, like to track the pace. He should be in the right spot. He may repeat one of his bad runs and I am prepared for that. But I hope the summer break may have done him good. The stable is in better form. If he builds on that Ludlow run here last season and relishes this trip which I think he will do, he could blow this lot away as I think he would be way ahead of the handicapper. That is why I have gone 2 points. Worth the risk for me I think. 13/2 is fair enough – maybe not quite as big as I would like but then maybe everyone is wise to this profile. Part of me thinks he might go off at 4s or 3s here.

The dangers..

Well if How About It doesn’t take this I would hope/expect one of the top two in the market to do so ..Azure Fly or Kilbree Kid

Azure Fly…he is short enough at 3s/2s for me here. He won this race last year off 129 and comes here a few pounds lower now. The trainer is in form and he is a prominent racer. He may try and make all. I am slightly perturbed by his more recent form, his inconsistent nature and the fact that I don’t know how strong that last win here was. Horses from that race have run 49 times since and only 2 have won. At his price I was happy for him to beat me.

Kilbree Kid… he is approaching ‘saver territory’ at around 9/2. Indeed he ticks the same boxes for why he had a solid chance LTO and is a better morning price here. Track is fine, he is inform, fit, still well handicapped on old form, is a solid jumper. The trainer stats underpinning his chance are very strong also and he is a ‘qualifier’ from my TTP stats pack. There is a minor question over Good to Firm (as it is for the selection in truth) as he is 0/3,0 places on the surface over fences. But, that isn’t conclusive. His recent wins are always what could end up being ‘summer form’. He was chased home the last day by an unexposed one who was returning after a break and wasn’t the most fluent jumping up the home straight. Of most concern to me would be the quick turnaround..all runs 1-30 days he is 2/17,6 places…compared to 5/7,6 places returning 31-60 days. In handicap chases he is 0/11,4 places 1-30 days. Maybe there is nothing there but it appears he is at his best when able to have slightly longer to recover. Also a slight niggle over the distance but that should be fine- all wins over 24f to date. The way he finishes races suggests the extra yardage should be ok. Still, at 9/2 (was put in at 7/2 last night) he has a fair chance and that price is ok.

The rest…

I can’t have the rest for me. I have serious reservations over the jumping ability of both Set List and Easy Street, as well as their form. Set List was fortunate to win a few starts ago when the Twister horse ran out when going on to win. She had a heavy fall the last day, seemingly not seeing the fence and trying to walk through it. Maybe that visor is no longer helping. Anyway, I am happy to leave. Likewise I am not sure how strong Easy Street’s summer C4 novice handicap chase form is- he was 8/11 when winning the latter one before the wheels fell off. Again I don’t like the shape he makes at his fences and the break concerns me- maybe he hurt himself LTO- he keeps brushing his front legs through the fences. Anyway, again enough there for me to leave. Both are unexposed and should like conditions. Clearly no shock if they win but I can’t have them.

Heist ties in with KK- he got outpaced there early on (or sulked) and dropped to the back after the first 1/3rd of the race. He can’t afford to do that here. Having to make ground down the back straight here, and up the home straight, is tricky with these fences as they come quickly enough. IF he can hold his position he should be close to KK in theory. How the race plays out, and that track position, are what concerns me. He will be staying on late again but those in front may get to the line first. DushyBeag needs every other horse in here to severely underperform really. He has much improvement to make and I can’t see him being good enough on recent form

Good Luck if/what you play on.

***

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None today. Enough to get stuck into I think.

 

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JUMPS ANGLES 

Sept/Oct Trainers (need to look at my notes)

2.40 Lud – Templehills WON 5/4 (after R4) (ticks the 1 run in last 90 days positive) (also qualifier for that non handicap micro posted recently)

3.10 Lud – Set List UP (ticks the fitness boxes and all her runners in October worth second glance. As above I don’t think he is a good enough jumper/or has the form to take this if a few others show up. I could be wide of the mark mind)

3.50 Tow – Moonday Sun WON 3/1 (ticks the extreme weight box, as he did LTO at Perth. Looks a tight little race)

 

NEW! Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio

(chases yet to be researched,next two  days)

3.50 Towc – Chic Theatre (pipe/distance move) UP 2/1>6/4

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

J Fanshawe Kempton (any odds)

8.20 – Hes My Boy

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. Have followed you in on How About It. Very interested in trainers who’ve had legitimate reasons for a poor performing string in the hope that they will turn it around. Saver on KK.

    I wrote a couple of weeks ago (21st Sept) about Nigel Hawke Juveniles. Basically that he was quoted as saying that he had 2-3 better Juveniles than Nachi Falls who’s had a very good Summer. He has another one running tomorrow in the 2.10 at Ludlow – Antemio. Pedigree, French form and sales value is moderate to say the very least and priced accordingly at 25/1. I’ve had a few quid EW. Trainer also has Lake Placid, who reads like a better horse, entered up at Chepstow on Saturday in what looks to be a pretty hot race so that might be even more interesting.

  2. Stunning stuff for Kempton Steve….sadly I had to leave the house before it came in so missed the 2 early goodies….lol…Yes you guessed backed the later ones…lol….”Death where is thy sting”…lol.
    It’s cracking stuff Steve it should be happy days for the aw season to come.

    Well done Mate.

    1. Hi Tony

      Yes I was a little late posting them up not much time to see the first one but Polytrack so far is working well another 3 winners last night and hopefully that will continue tonight will post up shortly

      Cheers
      Steve

  3. Interesting Tip Josh, last 3 runs PPP. You are either inspired or are on tilt? I wish you good luck.

    Tomorrowcomes is out again today in a Nursery with a short priced favourite to beat in the 3.30 Not.

    1. Ha, we will soon find out! Those letters probably reason I should have kept to one point but convinced myself if he runsure his race and shows improvement he will take this. Reasonable excuses for those Ps for me. Clearly if a P here I have got that wrong!

  4. Rebeca Curtis form PPP and win,i had win like that wih her
    have something about AW
    As part of Proform’s relationship with the Michael Appleby stable, we will be receiving and forwarding to our subscribers his updates containing stable news from last seasons All Weather Championships Champion Trainer.

    The July-Sept newsletter features:

    An exciting All Weather “Horse to Follow” competition open to everyone, not just owners.
    A review of the stable from the last few months
    Stable Stats.
    All Weather Horses to Follow (a must read from the current All Weather Championships Champion Trainer).

    https://www.proformracing.com/NEWS/217/mick-appleby-racing-stable-news-jul-sep,1.html
    Best P

  5. Sorry,after watching form i bet on Heist,my second win over 3 miles,sunday i won with M Scudamore horse,he is trainer to follow

  6. Hi Josh/ All

    Kempton Stallion Qualifiers below:

    Please note there are 4 races over 7F anything drawn 12, 13 or 14 have a very poor record on this going “Standard to Slow” with 81 runners and only 2 winners also there is 2 races over 6F where stalls 8, 9, 10 & 11 have had 155 runners and only 8 winners

    5.20 Kempton – Regicide 1.92 (Archipenko 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place)
    5.20 Kempton – Lord Topper 12.5 (Sir Percy 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place)

    5.50 Kempton – Azaly 15.0 (Sepoy 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
    5.50 Kempton – Zamalight 44.0 (Zaminder 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
    5.50 Kempton – Al Reeh 3.25 (Invincible Spirit 7 runs, 2 wins, 5 places)

    6.20 Kempton – Espirit De Corps 11.5 (Sepoy 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
    6.20 Kempton – Punkawallah 55.0 (Sepoy 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
    6.20 Kempton – Habbad 15.5 (Choisir 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)

    6.50 Kempton – Consulting 6.8 (Kyllachy 5 runs, 2 wins, 3 places)
    6.50 Kempton – Bank of Gibraltor (Rock of Gibraltor 2 runs, 0 wins, 2 places)

    7.20 No Selection

    7.50 Kempton – Lord of the Land 5.8 (Shamardal 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)

    8.20 Kempton – Wannen 10.5 (Approve 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place) DRAW 11 – 3.33%

    8.50 Kempton – Gavanie Encore 7.8 (Intikhab 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
    8.50 Kempton – Lutine Charlie 25.0 (Kheylef 5 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
    8.50 Kempton – Welsh Inlet 25.0 (Kheylef 5 runs, 1 win, 2 places)

    Only Wannen has poor draw from above list, No short price lays worth mentioning

    Cheers
    Steve

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