FREE DAILY POST: 06/10/16 (COMPLETE)

A NEW TEST POLL AT END OF POST… YOU HAVE UNTIL 1PM TO VOTE 

 

TIPS

None. Happy to leave both 3m+ chases and keep a watching brief this time.

3.30 Exeter- looks tricky- the youngest one in the field is short enough for Lavelle for me at 9/4. Plenty of older, inconsistent horses in here also. A race I am happy to leave on good to firm.

4.15 Hereford- This just looks a right puzzle and a race to watch for me. 4x LTO winners, 6 horses aged 7 who are open to mature future over this distance at some point, 4 coming here off breaks versus the rest who are fit from summer jumping. 7 of the 9 trainers are ‘in form’. (having said that given the micro angle as a way in below, and as in comments,i have had 1/2 point on Roc D’apsis… he is up against other in form,fit horses open to progress…his jumping has been shoddy at times and he has stamina to prove..but he is unexposed over this trip,ground may help, he has won after a break,and he could be better than these…was worth a small chance at odds and is definitely a handicap chaser to keep an eye on this season… 9s>7s>6s) 

 

***

JUMPS ANGLES

NOTE: As always you can find the notes/research to the Sept/Oct Systems in the Free Systems/Reports Tab and the notes for Kerry Lee if you scroll all the way through. 

Sept/Oct Trainers

NTD

4.15 Her – Belmount WON 9/2> 5/2  (ticks 1 run in 90 days box I think)*

*Pawn Star hacked up at Exeter as below, he came third to Belmount at NA on their last race. Safe to say form franked

4.50 Her – Little Pop WON 9/2>3/1 (ran 21-60 days ago, a positive)

5.20 Her – One Forty Seven (none on my notes…QUALIFIES for Non-handicap Micro) NR

Lavelle

3.30 Exet – Pawn Star WON 5/2 (a couple of ticks here against positives)

Kerry Lee Chasers  (12/1<)

4.50 Her – Aces Over Eights – UP 5/1

 

NEW! Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio

Handicap Hurdle

5.15 Exet – Billy My Boy (clear top weights) 3rd 9/2>3/1 (not sure if he liked the blinkers there)

Handicap Chase

(I have found a couple so far and one of them has a qualifier…this one looks at Tom George when he runs his chases at the same or only up 1/2 f from last run)

4.15 Her – Roc Dapsis UP*

*backed into 9/2 before drifting back out to 8s which said it all. A strange run. Maybe slowly slowly with something in mind as he went backwards earlier than I would have expected- before stamina would have been an issue. One to keep an eye on,but maybe not on his next start. 

***

TEST POLL

I would like to add some ‘polls’ to the blog content to see if the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ approach may work with any horses mentioned in the daily posts. In essence these polls allow you to anonymously vote for a horse/horses you may fancy. You can click ‘view result’ at any time, but it may be best voting before you do that – results to date pop up once you have voted. The following Test poll will close at 1pm I think- at that time, in theory, it should then display the final results, touch wood. It is a bit of fun and I suppose it will be clear from the number of votes whether it is something that adds any enjoyment to these posts…

Let’s go…

Which Systems Horse Do You Most Fancy? (can vote for 3 max)

  • Belmount (14%, 8 Votes)
  • Little Pop (5%, 3 Votes)
  • Pawn Star (7%, 4 Votes)
  • Aces Over Eights (36%, 21 Votes)
  • Billy My Boy (14%, 8 Votes)
  • Roc Dapsis (24%, 14 Votes)
  • NONE (2%, 1 Votes)

Total Voters: 37

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hey Josh,

    Are you gonna roll out that uber Kerry Lee betting angle that you discovered when doing a piece on the blog called Trainer in Focus on the Lee’s?

    Looked like they made monstrous profits on their chasers in October as far as I recall

    General Evan Williams in Oct as well?

    aallen 05/10/16 8:56 PM Reply


    • Hey, Yep one of them has appeared as above in the post. One at Hereford. I will dive back into that post and see if I have missed anything else. I will have a look at Williams as well as you mentioned him. I did start to look at the Chepstow meetimg…narrowed down to trainers at Chepstow in October…he came out top I think. Did have 40/1 winner in there also.

      Josh 05/10/16 10:03 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Not so good this evening with just the 1 winner at Kempton following on from 3 yesterday, but over 3 meetings 10 winners out of 22 races covered so still pretty solid at this venue…..onwards to tomorrow and a couple of qualifiers:

    Josephine Gordon for Hugo Palmer 12 rides, 7 wins, 8 places, 58.33% win SR, 66.67% place SR

    5.55 Chelmsford City – Await the Storm 2.88

    An angle worth waiting for is Racheal Blackmore riding for Miss Denise Marie O’Shea
    odds up to 6/1 she has had 7 rides, 5 winners, 6 places and there is a possible qualifier for tommorow

    5.05 Tramore -Paudi the Punter 7.0

    I’ll be back later tomorrow with more stallion selections this time for Chelmsford City

    Good Luck with all your selections

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 05/10/16 9:29 PM Reply


    • Cheers Steve, I got the enhanced odds of 5/1 from 365, so I broke even, but would have scored on Little Topper at 25/1 3rd….but the inevitable paid Medicean Man dropped out leaving 7 runners. What a surprise !!!

      Cheers Mate.

      Tony Mc. 06/10/16 11:31 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve, apart from the big guns in Ireland….it has a vast potential for closer scrutiny and great value.
      Cheers mate.

      Tony Mc. 06/10/16 11:58 AM Reply


  • Evening all,

    Thought I would sign off here since the bookies have all kindly chipped in helped me pay for a holiday of a lifetime to Peru and the Galapagos that I am off to on friday. Probably not a bad thing since I have had an absolutely torrid time during the last few weeks and two weeks away from the nags will hopefully do me a world of good. In the meantime I have three for tomorrow. I do think the 16:15 at Hereford is between The Tourand Man, Belmount and Roc Dapsis. Of the three I have to have an e/w on Roc given the 9/1 on offer. His 3rd in this year’s Betbright Chase looks by far and away the best form on offer. He is actually 2lbs lower than that effort. Trainer is good form. I am not worried about the break since he won last season’s re-appearance.

    I also can see Naggers returning to winning ways in the 15:50 at Ayr. Had won 2 on the bounce including over course/distance/ground. Than ran pretty well in a £65k handicap at the Curragh finishing less than 2 lengths down. Now back in a class 4. Has a plum draw. Midgley has been in fairly good form with 6 of his last runners placing including a couple of winners.

    I also want to have a bet on Muntadab in the 4:25 at Ayr. Ran an absolutely massive race in the Silver Ayr Cup when drawn on the completely the wrong side and over an inadequate 6f. Returns back to 7.5f which should suit much better and is also is back down in class. McDonald who was on LTO retains the ride which is a plus since apart from that run on his other two rides he has finished 1st or 2nd. The soft ground is an extra plus. He has switched trainers which is a slight concern however his new trainer’s (Roger Fell) last 3 runners have all placed so hopefully this horse will get him that ellusive first win.

    Regards,
    Nick

    nickmazur 05/10/16 9:45 PM Reply


    • Evening Nick. That does sound like the holiday of a life time, enjoy. My own attempts at refreshing at various points in last few months didn’t work too well so I hope you have better luck than I did haha. Enjoy and good luck with those horses above

      Josh 05/10/16 10:05 PM Reply


    • Good shout Nick…… what a finish. Cheers mate.
      Have a good cruise.

      Tony Mc. 06/10/16 4:11 PM Reply


      • Thanks mate. Slightly annoyed that I got Belmount on the shortlist but picked the wrong one but something to build on when I get back.

        Nick Mazur 06/10/16 5:29 PM Reply


  • Octagon 3:40 Hereford (4/1), has cropped up in a couple of my micros and is also in the top 40 of Mark Howard’s latest OJA publication. New trainer hoping to get some improvement for this strong traveller, especially dropped back to the trip of sole win to-date. Another top 40 from OJA is Daklondike 2:00 Hereford (11/2), expected to be better than half brother Great Endeavour.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 05/10/16 11:03 PM Reply


  • Yes – I think connections feel that Octagon is well handicapped off 120. Collodi the obvious danger. In the 4.15 at Hereford, I’m backing Fort Worth. Well backed LTO he was brought down unfortunately. Whilst he hasn’t won for 2 years just feel that there is a but of class there despite form being a bit in and out. Willing to take the chance at 9s.

    JV 05/10/16 11:33 PM Reply


    • JV – I also have Fort Worth in the 4:15, from a couple of my Hcp Chasers with no wins angles and looked unlucky last time when unseating as a result of a faller when seemingly fancied. It looks a competitive race and I also have Roc Dapsis from another angle (mentioned by Josh & Nick), so at the prices will probably back both.

      Chris R.

      broadsword 06/10/16 7:49 AM Reply


      • Good luck all…hmm yep I may have to have a nibble on RD given place on micro, fact he has won after a break, and he is still unexposed at this trip…my two concerns are his jumping, which wasn’t fluent at times, and whether he truly stays. Well, he hasn’t proved he can’t stay and you would have to say given that Kempton run it gives hope..he made the odd error there also and that was a decent race…this going may help him get home more…also with his jumping…they may go at a pace around here, at this level, where he can get into a rhythm. He could have a nice race in him this year, either at this trip or strongly run/stiff 2m4 or something. There is also a bit of pace in the race which should take him into it. Being held up at Kempton is tricky so you could mark up his finishing position the last day.

        Aces over Eights looks interesting also- micro qualifier…Lee 2/2 last 30 days, 8/28,12 places with Last time out winners last two years. , 10/39,16 places all horses running 60+ days off last two years. Horse is also clear top rated in HRB. Looks interesting enough for me also.

        Good luck with all your plays.

        I do plan to write a ‘horses to follow’ post…essentially just 3m+ based, creaming a few from Paul Ferguson and Mark Howard’s books for future reference.

        Josh 06/10/16 8:37 AM Reply


  • I dont mean to be picky, well suppose I do really! regarding ” clear top weight” selection billy my boy, fraser canyon has same weight, so billy my boy is not clear top weight, unless taking into account jockey allowances?

    malcolm pendrey 06/10/16 11:10 AM Reply


    • You can be as picky as you wish Malcolm! Yep …. I think it is when you include any claims. It will be rare that you get two with 11-12 in a race, and then also one or both having a claim. There are two settings in HorseRaceBase… one is ‘clear top’ (which I assume is after jockey claims counted given that is the setting for this micro)… and another is ‘clear top (exc claims)’ – which simply looks at weight on back and whether they are clear top weight before looking at any jockey claims etc. We shall see how they go.
      Hope that is clearer than mud!

      Josh 06/10/16 11:17 AM Reply


  • A system bet for outsiders has a selection today….
    Tramore 4.30. Gabriellemee….currently 25/1 Bet 365.

    Tony Mc. 06/10/16 11:35 AM Reply


  • I see that the Nick Williams & Lizzie Kelly angle kicks off today – 3 runners. watching with interest.

    Nothing much from the Gary Moore stable today.

    a 25/1 stab today, Munsarim, 8.25 Che.

    Duke Cosimo is out at Ayr today, 3.50. I am waiting for him to get back to the all weather for a serious punt.

    martin colwell 06/10/16 12:09 PM Reply


  • NOTE:… I have just researched a chase micro angle for NTD…. Little Pop Qualifies and special note should be taken of those 15/2<...14/35,22 places...2013-

    Josh 06/10/16 1:09 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Re Billy My Boy (top weights). Can you justify the inclusion of CJ Down in the system? He is 3 wins from 7 , 2 of which were in 2014. This seems to be a very insignificant sample. Also C Pogson (3 From 6) seems a little tentative.
    Sorry to sound critical as I have great respect for your work.and Billy My Boy will probably win by 20 lengths.
    Ray

    Ray Keeley 06/10/16 2:33 PM Reply


    • Hi Ray… you are always free to be politely critical, no problem with that. There will be some who quite agree with you on this point no doubt.

      This collection of micros includes includes some that have what you would call decent numbers, and others such as these that are ‘very micro’… it is looking at trainer behaviour first, rather than with a ‘type’ of horse which very much depends on what horses the yard has/how well handicapped they may be etc. In truth my system building has been awful in recent months so I thought I would try a mix of the very micro with a few trainers and those that have more ‘significant’ numbers.
      There are clearly not going to be many selections for some of them. What is ‘significant’ or not is very much subjective. Some wouldn’t touch anything with fewer than 100 bets say – which is always tricky with trainer based approaches.

      You can clearly pick out which ones you may or may not want to follow if you have the tools etc to dive into them, that is what they are there for. I didn’t give myself any set rules when approaching this and have tried a slightly different approach than I may have done in the past.

      All of them should be treated with some caution and tracked/tested/not backed with too much real money systematically. Angles like that can be a good guide to further form analysis and I would argue that on paper Billy My Boy has a decent enough chance also. I hope he hacks up! Time will tell whether I have had another nightmare on the micro angle research front! I could keep them all squirreled away and see whether they work but there isn’t much fun in that for us all if they do end up being decent, as a portfolio.

      I should i think those two are the smallest on the numbers front withing the portfolio.

      Josh 06/10/16 2:55 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Stallion Qualifiers for Chelmsford City this evening first race below rest to follow shortly…….

    5.55 Chelmsford – Prancelya 3.45 (Sir Prancelot 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)

    Steve Wiseman 06/10/16 5:45 PM Reply


    • 6.25 Chelmsford – Lily Cliff 100.0 (Canford Cliffs 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
      6.25 Chelmsford – Missisippi Miss 28.0 (Equiano 6 runs, 2 wins, 2 places)

      6.55 No Selections

      7.25 Chelmsford – Tony Curtis 8.4 (Rock of Gibraltor 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)

      7.55 Chelmsford – Strong Force 3.1 (Sea the Stars 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
      7.55 Chelmsford – Statuesque 3.55 (Sea the Stars 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
      7.55 Chelmsford – Alf Guineas 13.5 (Sea the Stars 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place)

      8.25 Chelmsford – Oyster Card 9.8 (Rail Link 5 runs, 2 wins, 3 places)

      8.55 Chelmsford – Next Trains Gone 4.0 (Dick Turpin 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)

      Cheers
      Steve

      Steve Wiseman 06/10/16 6:03 PM Reply


      • Ive made an error on the 8.55pm the selection should be Free Bounty 2.66 who is bred by Dick Turpin

        Apologies!

        Steve Wiseman 06/10/16 8:51 PM Reply


Post A Reply