TTP Jumps Notes: 05/10/16 (complete)

RESULTS… if you missed the link to the updated results you can read those HERE>>>

NOTE: Mike posted a very reasonable question on another post asking about the ‘Places’ stats – to clarify, unless otherwise stated place stats always include the winners as well- that is for all systems/results recording mentioned on this blog. He used the example of Dan Skelton at Fontwell under some category…

8 bets / 5 wins / 6 places

This indicates that he has had two horses who did not win or place. In effect he has had 5 winners, and one further placed horses = 6 ‘places’ in total, including any winners.

Hopefully that’s clear. If not, do say…

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Qualifiers/ Notes

LUDLOW 

3.10

Kilbree Kid 9/2 (UP)

(all handicaps, handicap chaes, Micros… class + trainer jockey combo??…)

(I think it is safe to assume that if Brennan was no1 for George he would be on this one here…the new stable jockey gets the leg up. I think where George/Brennan are mentioned, as notes in the guide George/Heskin should work just as well- on the basis that the booking of Brennan was possibly some indication of a horse’s chance, at certain tracks also. Clearly Heskin will need to learn the different tracks but he has made a pretty flawless start, including on this horse. One to watch)

Note: trainer in form- 2/6, 3 places last 14 days | Horse has won chase off OR 128,so on old form he is still handicapped to win off 126 here | Horse is in superb form again | hasn’t quite proved he can stay this extra 1f plus (all winning chase form 24f) but then again he hasn’t proved he can’t, and when he has won over 24f he often ‘stays on’ | Would have to say he looks ‘solid’ on paper | beat the right horse LTO for me, the one open to progress,who if jumping better may have been closer.

DushyBeag 50/1 (UP)

(handicap chases)

Note: trainer 0/8, 1 place 30 days..tricky with smaller yards as hard to know if ‘out of form’ or just horses that have ran haven’t been great/handicapper has them etc. In fact of those last 8 runners only one has gone off under 8/1, a few 50s/33s shots. So, maybe not useful as a guide. Horse is 2/32 in career, up 5f from last run. 1st time cheekpieces. Was rated 131 in July 2014 in Ireland. Mark is plummeting.

3.40

Miss Mobot 15/8 (UP)

(handicap hurdles)

Note: Hobbs ‘only’ 5/35,14 places with jumps handicap debutants in last year, but performing above market expectations, and place stats are decent. 0/3, 1 place at track with such runners. There are no real front runners here based on recent runs, and this one has raced prominently. Chance they may try and make all, and that is always the best place to be for me, usually.

4.40

Goodwood Moonlight 11/2 UP 12/1 

(market told story it seems but strange run as jumped well and travelled well but didn’t really pick up when asked up straight) 

(handicap hurdles)

Note: trainer ‘in form’ 4/17, 9 places in last 14 days- he is the only ‘in form’ (according to geegeez metrics) trainer in the race. 8/44,15 places in last two years with National Hunt handicap debutants. 0/3, 2 places at the track with such runners. I believe trainer/jockey are 1/1 here in handicap hurdles. Could well leave novice runs behind, albeit will need to. I was speaking to a racing friend the other day and he said some trainers will not school hurdlers that much before novice races – scrappy jumping providing a good excuse for a poor run if you are trying to get a handicap mark i suppose. (or what we call bringing a horse along slowly!) I had never thought about that really but it makes sense, esp over hurdles. There is some logic there. This one’s jumping has been a bit shoddy. Maybe he has had some extensive schooling in last three weeks, or is just not very good. Gets a tongue tie for first time also.

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TOWCESTER 

2.20

Diamond Lucy 20/1- UP

(micros – Trainer Jockey Combo)

Note: trainer 1/17,2 places in last year with NH handicap debutants, 0/7, 2 places at track. Trainer 1/18, 4 places last 14 days. Flat bred…niggle in my mind as to this trip at this track which is rather stiff. 55 days off- I don’t mind such a break before handicap debut as could indicate doing proper fitness work, or hand a wind op maybe etc. Or there has been a problem! Handicap debutants always tricky because any previous form can be irrelevant and guessing as to stamina is always tricky until they have proved they don’t stay. Albeit having said that, on paper at least, this one has shown nothing in career to date really.

2.50

She’s Late 4/1 – UP

(micros – Distance)

Note: Jonjo seems a bit hot and cold again (a touch of the ‘Tim Vaughans!’ -albeit thankfully he seems to have sorted his erratic inconsistency over last couple of years, for now at least) – he had a couple of more fancied ones do nothing at Southwell,as well as our one falling out the back of the tv. 2/19,3 places last 14 days. trainer/jockey are 0/11,4 places here, 0/6, 1 p handicap chases. Horse is flat bred and is 0/8, 1 place chasing. Mark is falling, starting chasing career off 121. Rather out of form and not looking convinced as to the jumping game. Did look outpaced the last day over 21f, but then has cut out quickly over 23/24f. Not doing too much differently bar running at this track- maybe taps into stamina no one knew was there- and this is an awful quality of race really.

Coincidentally…Jonjo is 21/59,30 places in class 5 Handicap Chases last 5 years, +31 points SP. He is 3/7, 5 places in C5 handicap chases here – 2/4, 3 places in this class, over this distance, at the track in handicap chases. Whatever this one does, some stats of mild interest there for this lowest quality of handicap chasing.

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My View:

I am backing GoodWood Moonlight 11/2 in the 4.40 and may have a saver on KK against my main bet in that race. I can’t have the rest for me. Hobbs horse too short for me at 2s in a race like that but I hope she hacks up. Jonjo’s is also short enough at 4s given the questions and doubts over bother his suitability for fences and the trainer’s form. Happy for him to beat me at those odds. If he were 8s or something I may have had 1/1 point say. You may disagree.

The two biggies really look up against it and I will leave both, surprised if one drops in. The Carroll horse has been just a bit too poor in career to date even for me to think he will suddenly step forwards in handicaps. It could be he just isn’t very good and stamina will be tested to the max around here.

Good luck with whatever you back.