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You can join my Members Club, whereby you well get a Daily Jumps Notes post throughout the season, as well as your Free Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17 guide, right HERE>>>
You can sign up for just £10 per month, with no obligation to stay. Once joining you get the guide for free (worth £38 inc VAT). You also get access to plenty of other benefits throughout the year including big race trends/big meeting trainer notes/monthly research articles.
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NOTE: These Daily Jumps Notes will be restricted to paying Members from some point next week. I will complete a few free posts leading up to Chepstow’s opening meeting of the season.
As a minimum these notes will always include all horses that ‘qualify’ against the Trainer Track Profiles stats pack.
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HEXHAM
3.35 – Beyondtemptation 12/1 (UP 20/1)
(trainer- handicap hurdles)
Note: Well I said I would stick to positives- maybe I will try and leave my subjective view out… but I couldn’t help but notice that the trainer is 0/9,0 places horses 60+ days rest last two years, horse is 0/4,0 places 60+ days off (albeit not many in handicaps) and is now on a career high mark. He is 4/10,6 places in handicap hurdles here. Pace – does like to lead, there are other front runners in race/pace pushers based on recent runs.
4.10 – Whatsupwoody 6/1 (2nd, brave effort, no complaints, caught late)
(handicap chases)
Note: Trainer 4/15,7 places with LTO winners, in form 2/3 last 30 days (this horse). Horse is in form. Career high mark. I think it could be dangerous to say he can’t win from this mark, as an 11yo he seems to be getting better! (at a moderate level) Does shoulder 12-0 here after claim. 1/1 over CD. PACE – he does like to get on with it, and the rain will help- has form in softened ground and may inconvenience others. Other front runner in race is Dun Faw Good but he doesn’t always lead and WUW doesn’t have to. Could be weighted to best now.
4.45 – Momkinzain 9/1 (UP 16/1)
(micro angles- class)
Note: Not much to say that isn’t subjective. He is 0/4,1 place over similar distances, but they were earlier on in career. He is flat bred. I would personally have reservations as to the trip, but then again he hasn’t conclusively proved he can’t stay it. Won well LTO, up 10lb.
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FONTWELL
3.25 – Hygrove Percy – Evens (WON 10/11 SP)
(all handicaps)
Note: Trainer in form 5/20,10 places last 14 days. 11/39 those returning within 7 days of last run. 0/6,1 place with this young jockey up.
4.00- Workbench 15/8 (WON 7/4 SP)
(handicap chases)
Note: Won the last two renewals of this race. Hold up horse, there are two front runners in here, small field.
5.10 –
LETMEGO 13/2 (was 10s) (UP)
(handicap hurdles)
Horace Hazel 11/2 (UP)
(all handicaps)
Note: Trainer 1/4, 2 places last 30 days. Not much else to say. My own view – arguably been fortunate to win the last two races, more a result of failures of opposition. Not inspired by the second time blinkers – didn’t do much when tried a while back. Maybe will work this time. All wins on good ground, 4/7, 5 places…0/9,3 places any cut/soft.
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Your thoughts welcome…
To start with- bar 3m+ handicap chases, these possible bets will be my own personal starting point for finding bets through the winter months. So far I have backed all the winners posted on the free blog posts (8/1 Fontwell, 12/1×2 MR, 12/1 Warwick) thrown up by the stats, backed a few losers, but also left a few losers also.
I don’t know if you find those ‘notes’ useful or not. I am happy to take this approach with them. I don’t want to influence you too much really as I fear making a clanger/convincing you to leave one etc. It is a game of subjective opinion and the I suppose this stats approach is designed to remove that if you don’t want to look at the races/horses in any depth.
And, I won’t promise to add such notes every day but will try to and especially highlight other positive stats that catch my eye, especially recent trainer form.
The other option is just to leave the list of horses that qualify against my stats. You may find this too much information or confusing?
My View:
For what it is worth… I think I will be having an EW bet on Whats Up Woody. (1/2 point EW, £10 EW for me) The handicapper may have him but I think he could get into a good jumping rhythm on the front end and put some of these under pressure. The absolute weight may anchor him in the latter stages but such is his form I hope he may have built up a lead whereby he places at worse. He could tire and fade though as he isn’t getting any younger. There are a few other in form horses in here. BLUE KASCADE – I may have a little go on him also as he is in my tracker as running well fresh- In fact he is 2/2 in chases after breaks of 121-365 days, his only chase wins and the rain has helped him. Hughes is up and while his recent form is shocking, if he is going to run well, it will be today. Race conditions are fine.
There isn’t much else from that list above I am personally inspired to back given some of the prices/my own approach. But of course, this is where Beyondtemptation, Momkinzain and HH all hack up 🙂 There is that ‘fear of missing out syndrome’ especially with those at a decent price.
We shall see. But they are my views, for what they are worth!
Do let me know what you think to those notes etc above- if you think they are a distraction then say or if they are useful etc.
Josh
p.s For interest if this was yesterday I would have said I was backing Foundation Man for 1 point win, waiting to see what the market did with the Pipe horse/didn’t like his recent form in context of his price, I would be having 1/2 point on Scott’s 22/1 hurdler just in case – albeit plenty of reasons to leave him, and I would be leaving the rest.
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7 Responses
After yesterday’s mistake of not looking at today’s (Thursday) Newcastle card, I’m possibly closing the barn door…
Friday’s sire selections;
520 Breton Blues (Street Cry) responsible for 3 of the losers in Street Cry’s 4/9 on Newcastle tapeta 20/1 at 365 (12s BFSB, 14s Sky)
550 Intrigue (Fastnet Rock) 5/1 (7s BFSB)
720Rosarno (Fastnet Rock) 6/1 Sky (BFSB have cut from 12s, to 9s to 7s lol)
720 Pathway to Freedom (Cape Cross) 11/4
I’ve not looked at the last three yet, but I’m gonna give BB a last chance at the early price.
Paul
Good luck with your newcastle selections. Repost as to how they run please.
No places, Martin. The only one I backed was Breton Blues…given a strange ride by Lee, ridden up but ran three wide over one and a half miles, but weakened very quickly.
Paul
Josh, any reason why you left the Gordon runner out in the last at Fontwell? His runners in Hcap Hdls do well according to your report. His stats for horses having their first run for the yard are also positive according to GG’s.
Has now been well found in the market mind you.
Hi Al,
Good spot, sorry about that. Trying to do too many things at once clearly! No excuse there, just an amateurish oversight! Glad you pointed that out. I think I go distracted with the mico angles, checking against those, and missed fact he was the first bit of profile! Oversight. I know what will happen now!
I have looked a bit deeper and I won’t be backing him I don’t think, even though no longer 7s… 3/32 with those from different yard, first time up for him last two years (maybe his 5 year stats better?) from Geegeez stats that I can see, in the card. He is also only 4/65 with handicap hurdlers after break of 60+ days, and 5/64 in class 3 hurdles.
Yes, only 3/32 (9 placed) with horses having first run after transfer from previous yard, but the P/L on those 32 bets is £24.00 and the ew Profit is £26.35. Obviously had a few go in at a decent price.
Similarly, as you say only 8 of 76 returning from 60+ day absence have won (19 placed) but had you backed them all the profit would have been £10.58.
The market suggests that someone fancies the horse today.
Interestingly the horse runs in a first time hood. Would you have any stats for Gordon runners in first time hoods? Geegeez tells me that he has run 25 hurdlers in a hood (not just first time) in last 5 years, 3 winners, 8 places for level stakes profit of £10.00.
The win percentages aren’t great but there is profit across various criteria.
Yep, all depends what you look for and that is where our subjective judgement comes in! While profits are ok it does suggest some biggies and a lot of losers to plough through – but then again proves they do go in- and actually the shortening price would increase confidence I think. I take more note of a higher SR I suppose, if taking a systematic approach, but the places are ok.
Interesting – he may be a better bet at 7s/13/2, rather than 10s- in the sense that you should be able to back with more confidence of a good run, than if he was hovering around 10s/11s still. That is the kind of profile I like to see market support for unless stats so compelling at a monster price. And if he goes off at 9/2, 5s you have still beaten the market. Hmmm.
He is doing plenty of things different- the break, the headgear, the new trainer, he does have some old form. A concern over class but not strongest of races. GL if you play.