WHY NOT JOIN TODAY?
You can join my Members Club, whereby you well get a Daily Jumps Notes post throughout the season, as well as your Free Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17 guide, right HERE>>>
You can sign up for just £10 per month, with no obligation to stay. Once joining you get the guide for free (worth £38 inc VAT). You also get access to plenty of other benefits throughout the year including big race trends/big meeting trainer notes/monthly research articles.
NOTE: These Daily Jumps Notes will be restricted to paying Members from some point next week. I will complete a few free posts leading up to Chepstow’s opening meeting of the season.
As a minimum these notes will always include all horses that ‘qualify’ against the Trainer Track Profiles stats pack.
3.35 – Beyondtemptation 12/1 (UP 20/1)
(trainer- handicap hurdles)
Note: Well I said I would stick to positives- maybe I will try and leave my subjective view out… but I couldn’t help but notice that the trainer is 0/9,0 places horses 60+ days rest last two years, horse is 0/4,0 places 60+ days off (albeit not many in handicaps) and is now on a career high mark. He is 4/10,6 places in handicap hurdles here. Pace – does like to lead, there are other front runners in race/pace pushers based on recent runs.
4.10 – Whatsupwoody 6/1 (2nd, brave effort, no complaints, caught late)
Note: Trainer 4/15,7 places with LTO winners, in form 2/3 last 30 days (this horse). Horse is in form. Career high mark. I think it could be dangerous to say he can’t win from this mark, as an 11yo he seems to be getting better! (at a moderate level) Does shoulder 12-0 here after claim. 1/1 over CD. PACE – he does like to get on with it, and the rain will help- has form in softened ground and may inconvenience others. Other front runner in race is Dun Faw Good but he doesn’t always lead and WUW doesn’t have to. Could be weighted to best now.
4.45 – Momkinzain 9/1 (UP 16/1)
(micro angles- class)
Note: Not much to say that isn’t subjective. He is 0/4,1 place over similar distances, but they were earlier on in career. He is flat bred. I would personally have reservations as to the trip, but then again he hasn’t conclusively proved he can’t stay it. Won well LTO, up 10lb.
3.25 – Hygrove Percy – Evens (WON 10/11 SP)
Note: Trainer in form 5/20,10 places last 14 days. 11/39 those returning within 7 days of last run. 0/6,1 place with this young jockey up.
4.00- Workbench 15/8 (WON 7/4 SP)
Note: Won the last two renewals of this race. Hold up horse, there are two front runners in here, small field.
LETMEGO 13/2 (was 10s) (UP)
Horace Hazel 11/2 (UP)
Note: Trainer 1/4, 2 places last 30 days. Not much else to say. My own view – arguably been fortunate to win the last two races, more a result of failures of opposition. Not inspired by the second time blinkers – didn’t do much when tried a while back. Maybe will work this time. All wins on good ground, 4/7, 5 places…0/9,3 places any cut/soft.
Your thoughts welcome…
To start with- bar 3m+ handicap chases, these possible bets will be my own personal starting point for finding bets through the winter months. So far I have backed all the winners posted on the free blog posts (8/1 Fontwell, 12/1×2 MR, 12/1 Warwick) thrown up by the stats, backed a few losers, but also left a few losers also.
I don’t know if you find those ‘notes’ useful or not. I am happy to take this approach with them. I don’t want to influence you too much really as I fear making a clanger/convincing you to leave one etc. It is a game of subjective opinion and the I suppose this stats approach is designed to remove that if you don’t want to look at the races/horses in any depth.
And, I won’t promise to add such notes every day but will try to and especially highlight other positive stats that catch my eye, especially recent trainer form.
The other option is just to leave the list of horses that qualify against my stats. You may find this too much information or confusing?
For what it is worth… I think I will be having an EW bet on Whats Up Woody. (1/2 point EW, £10 EW for me) The handicapper may have him but I think he could get into a good jumping rhythm on the front end and put some of these under pressure. The absolute weight may anchor him in the latter stages but such is his form I hope he may have built up a lead whereby he places at worse. He could tire and fade though as he isn’t getting any younger. There are a few other in form horses in here. BLUE KASCADE – I may have a little go on him also as he is in my tracker as running well fresh- In fact he is 2/2 in chases after breaks of 121-365 days, his only chase wins and the rain has helped him. Hughes is up and while his recent form is shocking, if he is going to run well, it will be today. Race conditions are fine.
There isn’t much else from that list above I am personally inspired to back given some of the prices/my own approach. But of course, this is where Beyondtemptation, Momkinzain and HH all hack up 🙂 There is that ‘fear of missing out syndrome’ especially with those at a decent price.
We shall see. But they are my views, for what they are worth!
Do let me know what you think to those notes etc above- if you think they are a distraction then say or if they are useful etc.
p.s For interest if this was yesterday I would have said I was backing Foundation Man for 1 point win, waiting to see what the market did with the Pipe horse/didn’t like his recent form in context of his price, I would be having 1/2 point on Scott’s 22/1 hurdler just in case – albeit plenty of reasons to leave him, and I would be leaving the rest.