DAILY JUMPS NOTES POST
Your views welcome… today’s Daily Jumps Notes post is complete and you can read this HERE>>>
Now, as a minimum Members will get the horses qualified against the stats each day. But, I have embellished today’s post with some more notes. I would be interested to hear what you think – whether this is helpful or not. I wan’t to add as much value/usefulness as I can but at same time it is a balance between objective stats and my own subjective view- which at times may be completely wrong!
So, please do leave a comment if you can.
***
Another 12/1 winner yesterday…
the good start to this jumps season continued with a 12/1 winner highlighted at Warwick- improving Jonjo’s overall handicap chase stats at the track, his stats in that class and on good ground. That winner adds to those at 8/1, 12/1, 12/1 all posted on here in recent weeks. (a few losers also, but if you did just back them all you will be nicely in front)
A perfect time to try it out for yourself…
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: 2016/17: YOU CAN FIND OUT MORE/JOIN HERE>>>
(includes a ‘brief’ video of yours truly. I think it is worth a few minutes of your time)
I did think…if you signed up for £97 for 12 months to the Members Club, which a few of you have done…once you remove the cost of the guide (which comes free, worth £38 with vat) you are effectively paying £59 for the year’s access… or, £4.91 per month. That isn’t too bad for a set of daily notes, and all the other stuff- big race trends/big meeting notes, etc etc 🙂
***
Right, that enough of me being Del Boy for the day on here… 🙂
TIPS
None. That 4.35 Fontwell isn’t a race I want to get involved in. No views in it at all having had a top level look. Many in there have questions to answer. Indiana Bay has the interesting profile but the trainer is only 4/80 with those returning after 60+ days in last two years. His are running well though, knocking on the door. 10/3 not overly generous given fitness question but interested to see how he goes, stepping out of hunter chases.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
- 4.10 Hexham – just to say as in the Daily Jumps Notes post I have had 1/2 point EW on Whats Up Woody in here, as I don’t think it is impossible for him to make all/race prominent and jump these silly. On flip side he may have too much weight but he is in superb form. I am hoping he places at worse. But, the other in the race of some mild interest (1/2 point win) for me is Blue Kascade 6s – just because of his record fresh, after 121-365 days – he is 2/2 in chases, his only wins. He needed the rain to come, which it has, and he isn’t a forlorn hope. He could just be out of form but if he is going to win this is the time to catch him. The booking of Hughes is no bad thing either. With any luck one of these two will go in for me in this race albeit a couple of others in form in here also.
- 8.20 Newcastle – Desert Ace – 10/1 (UP 5/1, 4th) – my views on any horse running on the AW are probably worth ignoring but I don’t know what I have missed with this one at 10s? Given he looks weak enough in the market that would be a concern. The trainer is 19/55,29 places with LTO winners, +27 SP in last two years. This one won a decent enough turf handicap LTO and gets a decent claim on board here to help with the rise. The question is whether he is just inconsistent and of course whether he will handle the surface. 10s seems a decent enough price to find out for a prominent racer. I may have 1/4 point on EW and see. The market vibes don’t feel too good mind, not at the moment.
JUMPS NOTES
None. No Oct/Sept trainers. Daily Jumps Notes for Hexham/Fontwell, using my new stats pack, are HERE>>>
***
MICRO SYSTEMS
Aug/Sept Flat Trainer
Ivory
3.10 Ascot – Kadrizzi (16/1<)
4.20 Ascot – Fighting Temeraire (16/1)
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
None.
***
Post Complete
6 Responses
I’ve had a bet on Vikekhal in the 16:35 at Fontwell. Won at the course on re-appearance last year. Is 1/1 over course and distance. (2/4, 3 places at the track over handicap chases). Is on his last winning mark before the jockey’s 10lb claim. Gary Moore has been in much better form recently. I don’t know much about the jockey but he has placed on half his rides in the last 12 months.
I have also had more speculative each/way bets in the first 2 races at Ascot on Holiday Magic (Spencer booking eye-catching, 2/3 at Class 4s, has been running well several times this season including his only run over 7f and the St Wilfrid consolation race where he was on the wrong side and 1st and 8th have gone on to win big races since) and Margaret’s Mission (convinced he is well handicapped but needs a good pace and has had excuses the last 2 runs after just missing out on his first 2 runs this season both in class 2s including over course and distance)
Hi Nick
Thought you might like the comment on the chances
of Vikekhal courtesy of Trainers Quotes
Good luck
Dave
16:35, Fontwell Park
Gary Moore
Vikekhal
Fri 30th Sep 2016
Vikekhal, First run of the season- lost his way last season. This is a track he runs well at and has a useful 10lbs off him today. Should have every chance.
3 stars
Thanks David. Cant run any worse than my first two.
Any Daily Jumps notes users… I appear to have missed a C Gordon runner in 5.10 fontwell, now posted. Apoligies. Having looked a bit deeper at stats – in the comments – I don’t really fancy him on paper but will probably bolt up now. Both horses in that race are the only ones being backed it seems!
Some stats/trends for the Challenge Cup have been posted…
http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/09/30/saturday-big-race-trends-ascot-challenge-cup/
Hi All
An average performance for Chelmsford last evening 25 selections over 8 races with 3 winners & 4 x 3rds being the highlight although all the 3rds were double figure odds including a couple of biggies, A good run also from Josey Gordon but 2nd in the end…Nothing from the 4 x Newcastle selections yesterday but hopefully much better this evening selections as follows excludes class due to the limited data except the 7.50pm:
5.20 Newcastle – The Redev Way 3.05 (Multiplex 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
5.20 Newcastle – Byronegetonefree 6.4 & Sunshine & Bubbles 15.0 (Byron 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
5.20 Newcastle – Breton Blues 21.0 (Street Cry 2 runs, 0 wins, 1 place)
5.50 Newcastle – Intrigue 6.0 (Fastnet Rock 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
5.50 Newcastle – Roman De Brut 9.0 (Rock of Gibraltor 5 runs, 0 wins, 3 places)
6.20 Newcastle – All the Rage 3.35 (Dubawi 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
6.50 Newcastle – Bridal March 5.5 (Casamento 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
7.20 Newcastle – Cool Team 9.4 (Tamayuz 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
7.20 Newcastle – La Vie En Rose 21.0 (Henrythenavigator 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
7.20 Newcastle – Siyamamba 200.0 (Helmet 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
7.50 Newcastle – Castleacre 2.86 (Exceed & Excel 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
7.50 Newcastle – Al Haayelah 10.0 (Showcasing 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
7.50 Newcastle – Bearae 46.0 (Dutch Art 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
8.20 Newcastle – Cocoa Beach 5.2 (Acclamation 2 runs, 0 wins, 1 place)
8.20 Newcastle – Crosse Fire 55.0 (Monsieur Bond 12 runs, 1 win, 5 places)
8.50 Newcastle – Oriental Relation 6.2 (Tagula 5 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
8.50 Newcastle – Elusivity 10.5 (Elusive City 1 run, 0 wins 1 place)
8.50 Newcastle – Landing Night 22.0 (Kodiac 6 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
Cheers
Steve